{"id":205202,"date":"2024-04-19T11:15:00","date_gmt":"2024-04-19T15:15:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=205202"},"modified":"2024-04-25T11:54:59","modified_gmt":"2024-04-25T15:54:59","slug":"monthly-expiration-to-traders-remember-me","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/options\/monthly-expiration-to-traders-remember-me\/","title":{"rendered":"Monthly Expiration to Traders: \u201cRemember Me?\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Not that long ago, I always had the third Friday of any month circled on my calendar.&nbsp; Monthly expirations were a really big deal for market makers like me, so I did my best to avoid scheduling vacation days on them.&nbsp; Today, I honestly nearly forgot that today was a monthly expiration. &nbsp;But those with positions in AM expiring S&amp;P 500 (SPX) options certainly got an even bigger jolt than already jittery investors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/options\/omg-they-all-have-0dte-options-tomorrow\/?query=OMG&amp;query_id=9c4c662f8936b2cf947caeb1eb6963ef&amp;index=prod_ibkrcampus_en&amp;user_token=anonymous-ab2cddb6-49e7-4567-a8d5-7379570809cb\">We\u2019ve discussed at length<\/a> why monthly and quarterly expirations have been largely eclipsed in recent months.&nbsp; Since I started trading options I\u2019ve seen a steady compression in the expiration cycle.&nbsp; Weekly options arrived about 20 years ago, and with little fanfare intra-week options came along in 2016, followed by daily expirations in 2022.&nbsp; We\u2019ve seen volumes migrate toward shorter-dated options, with a majority of volume now occurring in options with less than five days until expiration.&nbsp; But <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/do-monthly-options-expirations-still-matter\/?query=still%20matter&amp;query_id=a03ee1c4bffbc2a38bd0c5428479d86b&amp;index=prod_ibkrcampus_en&amp;user_token=anonymous-ab2cddb6-49e7-4567-a8d5-7379570809cb\">monthly expirations still matter<\/a>, primarily because they remain the only time when we have cash-settled index options that expire on the open.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Those options came into play overnight and this morning.&nbsp; There were over 87,000 contracts on SPX 5000 strike puts that expired today.&nbsp; With SPX closing around 5010 yesterday, they already posed some risk to the overall market.&nbsp; We have previously explained that the open interest in expiring options can act as either <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/options\/expiring-open-interest-magnet-or-slingshot\/?query=magnet&amp;query_id=94f0bd620108a9f9eab4225fd6add406&amp;index=prod_ibkrcampus_en&amp;user_token=anonymous-ab2cddb6-49e7-4567-a8d5-7379570809cb\">a magnet or a slingshot<\/a> shortly before they cease trading.&nbsp; It depends on who holds the positions.&nbsp; If they are held primarily by hedgers, their propensity hedge gamma by buying low and selling high tends to keep the underlying around the strike.&nbsp; If speculators are long and hedgers are short, their activity can amplify the movement of the underlying.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Anyone who saw the reports about Israel and Iran last night received a bit of a shock, and those who were short the expiring 5000 puts must have had a rough night\u2019s sleep.&nbsp; It seemed like a worst-case scenario about an escalating conflict, and markets acted accordingly.&nbsp; The initial reaction to the reports was understandably quite negative \u2013 oil rose, SPX futures and bond yields fell, Japan\u2019s Nikkei fell-3%, leading Asian market declines \u2013 the concerns eased when Iran\u2019s response was more dismissive than aggressive. &nbsp;The markets were already pricing in a fair amount of geopolitical worry. &nbsp;That is what led to the more muted response we saw early in today\u2019s session, though equities have resumed their declines by midday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Today\u2019s declines are becoming part of a larger pattern.&nbsp; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/its-still-an-uptrend-but\/\">As we noted yesterday<\/a>, US equities remain in a long-term uptrend, which means that investors with a longer time horizon can and should be on the lookout for stocks that have gotten unnecessarily cheap, but some of the shorter-term trends have turned sharply negative in a rapid time period.&nbsp; That tends to favor strategies that favor selling rallies rather than buying dips.&nbsp; To be fair, it\u2019s not clear why the market psychology has switched so abruptly, but it clearly has.&nbsp; Look at the reaction to Netflix (NFLX) earnings, which should have been good enough for a nice bounce, but instead we see analysts focused on the negative of paring back guidance about subscriber growth.&nbsp; And while VIX has risen in recent weeks from a 13 handle to the current 19, showing a heightened attitude about risk, it is far from the levels that indicate that fear has completely overtaken greed.&nbsp; Those would be in the high-20\u2019s \u2013 low \u201830\u2019s (or beyond), whereas VIX has a long-term historical average in the high teens, which of course is around the current \u201celevated\u201d level.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Another key feature of monthly expirations is that all options classes have expiring options, rather than the relative handful that expire daily and the 600+ that expire every Friday.&nbsp; That gives us thousands of potential magnets and slingshots that we can see before today\u2019s close.&nbsp; Don\u2019t sleep on monthly expirations, especially when there are things that can keep you up at nights.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Not that long ago, I always had the third Friday of any month circled on my calendar.  Monthly expirations were a really big deal for market makers like me, so I did my best to avoid scheduling vacation days on them.  Today, I honestly nearly forgot that today was a monthly expiration.  But those with positions in AM expiring S&amp;P 500 (SPX) options certainly got an even bigger jolt than already jittery investors.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":200820,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14700,6,19,8,9,22,26,3],"tags":[2395,14385,1926],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-205202","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-market-insights","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-options","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-stocks","13":"category-text-articles","14":"category-traders-insight","15":"tag-expiration","16":"tag-option-trading","17":"tag-options","18":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Monthly Expiration to Traders: \u201cRemember Me?\u201d<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Not that long ago, I always had the third Friday of any month circled on my calendar. 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