{"id":204914,"date":"2024-04-15T10:30:00","date_gmt":"2024-04-15T14:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=204914"},"modified":"2024-04-16T11:36:59","modified_gmt":"2024-04-16T15:36:59","slug":"weekly-market-recap-april-15-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/weekly-market-recap-april-15-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Weekly Market Recap: April 15, 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-week-in-review\">The week in review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>CPI grew 0.4% m\/m (3.5% y\/y) in Mar.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Consumer sentiment declined to 79.4 in Mar.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-week-ahead\">The week ahead<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Retail sales<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Housing starts<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-thought-of-the-week\">Thought of the Week<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>With Tax Day on April 15, it\u2019s a good time to explore the relationship between the stock market and taxes and particularly how big capital gains tax payments may impact the stock market. This week&#8217;s chart shows an interesting trend: capital gains tax revenues tend to spike in fiscal years when the market undergoes significant sell-offs. In previous major market downturns, such as those in 2000, 2008 and 2022, it&#8217;s plausible that capital gains tax realizations could have intensified these sell-offs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>One hallmark of a strong bull market is heavy trading as investors try to take advantage of a rising market or protect themselves against an impending correction. However, this trading results in the realization of significant capital gains, with taxes due by April of the following year. As investors fulfill their tax obligations, they often sell stocks to generate the necessary funds, leading to a drawdown in the market. This phenomenon likely played a contributing role in the sell-offs observed in 2000, 2008 and, to a lesser extent, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, this phenomenon may be less prevalent today, due to the more widespread use of low-turnover passive investments and tax-aware strategies. Because of this, capital gains taxes relative to the size of the market are expected to be lower this year compared to the peaks witnessed in the first decade of this century. While there are some similarities between the strong stock market surge of the last 18 months and tech bubble of the 1990s, the market\u2019s vulnerability to capital gains tax payments probably isn\u2019t one of them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"446\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/04\/Screenshot-2024-04-15-095258-1100x446.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-204915 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/04\/Screenshot-2024-04-15-095258-1100x446.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/04\/Screenshot-2024-04-15-095258-700x284.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/04\/Screenshot-2024-04-15-095258-300x122.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/04\/Screenshot-2024-04-15-095258-768x311.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/04\/Screenshot-2024-04-15-095258.png 1238w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/446;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Chart of the Week: Source: Congressional Budget Office, FactSet,<br>Wilshire, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Thought of the week: Source: Congressional Budget Office, FactSet,<br>Wilshire, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u2014<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Originally Posted April 15, 2024 \u2013\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/am.jpmorgan.com\/us\/en\/asset-management\/adv\/insights\/market-insights\/market-updates\/weekly-market-recap\/\">Weekly Market Recap<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Past performance does not guarantee future results.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Diversification does not guarantee investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of financial market trends, which are based on current market conditions. We believe the information provided here is reliable, but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The views and strategies described may not be appropriate for all investors. This material has been prepared for informational purposes only, and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice. References to future returns are not promises or even estimates of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Market Insights program provides comprehensive data and commentary on global markets without reference to products. Designed as a tool to help clients understand the markets and support investment decision-making, the program explores the implications of current economic data and changing market conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The J.P. Morgan Asset Management Market Insights and Portfolio Insights programs, as non-independent research, have not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, nor are they subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature<br>or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from J.P. Morgan Asset Management or any of its subsidiaries to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professional, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>J.P. Morgan Asset Management is the brand for the asset management business of JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. and its affiliates worldwide.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Telephone calls and electronic communications may be monitored and\/or recorded.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Personal data will be collected, stored and processed by J.P. Morgan Asset Management in accordance with our privacy policies at https:\/\/www.jpmorgan.com\/privacy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This communication is issued in the United States, by J.P. Morgan Investment Management Inc. or J.P. Morgan Alternative Asset Management, Inc., both regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If you are a person with a disability and need additional support in viewing the material, please call us at 1-800-343-1113 for assistance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Copyright 2024 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><sup>\u00a9<\/sup>JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., April 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Unless otherwise stated, all data is as of April 15, 2024 or as of most recently available<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This week&#8217;s chart shows an interesting trend: capital gains tax revenues tend to spike in fiscal years when the market undergoes significant sell-offs.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":186,"featured_media":204915,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[6439,1685,2298],"contributors-categories":[13608],"class_list":{"0":"post-204914","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-macro","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-region","10":"category-securities","11":"category-text-articles","12":"category-traders-insight","13":"tag-capital-gains","14":"tag-macro","15":"tag-market-recap","16":"contributors-categories-j-p-morgan-asset-management"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.8) - 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