{"id":204913,"date":"2024-04-15T10:15:00","date_gmt":"2024-04-15T14:15:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=204913"},"modified":"2024-04-16T11:36:36","modified_gmt":"2024-04-16T15:36:36","slug":"economic-update-april-15-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/economic-update-april-15-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Economic Update: April 15, 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The U.S. economy expanded at an impressive 3.4% annualized rate in 4Q23, a deceleration from a very strong third quarter but well above expectations. Many of the underlying details looked strong but consumption, again, powered the economy in both goods and services. Trade surprised to the upside, with exports rising at a 5.1% ann. pace, while inventories detracted from growth after recent downward revisions. Growth will likely be slower in 2024, but continued resiliency in the consumer, disinflation progress and a modest rebound in housing should help the economy grow at a decently positive rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jobs<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The March Jobs report showed a very strong labor market, but not an inflationary one. Nonfarm payrolls rose by an impressive 303K, handily beating expectations, while revisions to the prior two months added another 22K jobs. Most sectors added jobs this month, with the most outsized gains seen in government and health care. In the household survey, the labor force increased by 469K, and the unemployment rate ticked down to 3.8%. Elsewhere, wage growth rose to 0.3% m\/m and moderated to 4.1% y\/y. Overall, strong labor supply gains, mainly fueled by immigration, should allow the U.S. economy to keep adding jobs at a robust pace without sparking inflationary pressures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The 4Q23 earnings season has come to a close. Our final estimate for operating earnings per share (EPS) is $53.91. This represents y\/y earnings growth of 7.0% and q\/q growth of 3.2%. Corporate profits ended 2023 on a high note, as economic activity remained resilient. Across sectors, information technology and communication services both had strong quarters, while lower oil and natural gas prices weighed on the energy sector. Looking forward, downbeat forward guidance from management teams could weigh on consensus estimates for earnings growth in 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The March CPI report came in stronger than expected, with many of the usual suspects driving the bulk of this strength. Headline CPI rose 0.4% m\/m and 3.5% y\/y, its fastest annual increase since September, while core CPI rose 0.4% m\/m and 3.8% y\/y. Energy prices rose for a second consecutive month, supported by higher gasoline prices, while food inflation remained relatively benign. Elsewhere, lower vehicle prices offset a spike in apparel prices, allowing core goods disinflation to continue. Across core services, shelter and auto insurance, up 0.4% m\/m and 2.6% m\/m, respectively, remained problematic. Overall, stalling progress on disinflation limits the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in June, although underlying disinflationary trends should allow inflation to march lower over the course of this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rates<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At its March meeting, the FOMC voted to hold rates steady at 5.25%-5.50% for a fifth consecutive meeting. The changes to the Summary of Economy Projections were mixed with year-end core PCE being revised up to 2.6% from 2.4% and 2024 growth being revised up to 2.1% from 1.4% in December. The median dot still showed three rate cuts for this year, and one fewer cut for next year for a total of three cuts in 2025 and 2026. The first rate cut in 2024 is still expected to take place some time this summer. During the press conference, Chairman Powell did not seem concerned about the hot inflation prints in January and February, and the FOMC seems intent on starting to cut rates this year to ensure a soft landing scenario.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Risks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n