{"id":204756,"date":"2024-04-10T10:01:06","date_gmt":"2024-04-10T14:01:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=204756"},"modified":"2024-04-10T15:59:08","modified_gmt":"2024-04-10T19:59:08","slug":"nonfarm-payrolls-march-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/ibkr-quant-news\/nonfarm-payrolls-march-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Nonfarm Payrolls March 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">April 5, 2024<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The labor market concluded the first quarter with a bang! 303,000 new jobs were created in March. Naturally, the official unemployment rate held below 4% with U6 unchanged at 7.3% MoM. Wages increased by 0.3% last month, bringing them to 4.1% YoY. Job openings in February tallied more than 8.75M. With jobs aplenty and inflation stubbornly above target in the US policymakers find themselves in a uniquely challenging position. Has enough been done to tame inflation and how much time do they have to mull over the data before acting (one way or another)? The clock is ticking.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">What if productivity AND inflation are skewed higher in the short-term? Ordinarily, productivity gains have a dampening effect on inflation, but the global economic contours of the present age are unique. We have a relatively new\u2014some would say ongoing\u2014 era of warfare in the East and continued deficit spending in conjunction with the advent of an AI-induced productivity boom in the West. Economists tend to think productivity fosters competition, which is usually associated with increased efficiencies and disinflation, yet inflationary forces aren\u2019t exactly cooperating thus far in \u201924.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">China is attempting to stabilize its economy\u2014 the Chinese industrial sector is picking up speed (finally). Higher than expected stateside inflation reports have prompted Janet Yellen, formerly of the Federal Reserve but now helming the US Treasury, to cast her worried eyes across the Pacific. Meanwhile, ISM\u2019s measure of March manufacturing activity in the US ticked into expansion territory for the first time since the end of 2022! Europe (collectively) and Japan are mired in recessions, and the US is\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/totalwealthpartnerscom.tinyemails.com\/c\/eyJ1IjozMTY1LCJtIjoyNzM2NDg3ODMsImwiOjEzNDMzNjB9.dRBLyAJtnkpi3UBsHBcLas93Tr5bveh-ntc8lF5X408.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">actively engaged<\/a>\u00a0with the Yemeni Houthis in an effort to secure safe passage of cargoes in the Red Sea\u2014sailing around the Cape of Good Hope isn\u2019t an ideal long-term solution. It\u2019s worth noting China and Russia have already received assurances from the Houthis regarding their vessels, though\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/totalwealthpartnerscom.tinyemails.com\/c\/eyJ1IjozMTY1LCJtIjoyNzM2NDg3ODMsImwiOjEzNDMzNjF9.8i2yQh5UPLk9rs2SpzAnAVgGX_hZkg1-fH_vmL-w9r0.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">errant missiles<\/a>\u00a0have been fired recently. Meanwhile, Ukraine and Gaza continue to burn. Despite the global turbulence, earnings at the largest and best run companies, as measured by the S&amp;P 500, are on track for unprecedented profitability\u2014operating earnings per share are expected to increase by double digits YoY. Moreover, even with domestic savings rates declining at a precipitous pace US consumers remain armed and ready to spend. Under such circumstances real rates and inflation could both be higher than what the Fed and other central banks in the developed world anticipate; the consequences could be significant for financial markets. As a quick reminder, nominal rates (the rates we see and pay) are the sum of the rate of inflation and real rates. Another way of looking at this phenomenon (rather than hypothesizing about the viability of monetary policy\u2019s long and variable lags) would be to consider whether the real rate needs to be the equivalent of the rate of inflation in order for the economy to find its true neutral rate.<br>\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<br>The eye of the storm is a term that meteorologists use to describe a small area of relative calm in the middle of a hurricane. Within the eye there is no wind, no rain, and sunlight is actually able to break through the enormous, looming clouds that form the storm itself. Incidentally, the eye is also narrowest at the bottom and widest at the top\u2014something noteworthy in an election year, but I digress&#8230; Immediately outside of the eye is the \u201ceye wall,\u201d which is known to be the most acute and harmful part of the hurricane. As the storm moves, so does the eye. Metaphorically speaking we are currently living in an economic hurricane.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Policy (fiscal and monetary) are the tools governments deploy to manage the economic environment\u2014factors foreign and domestic must be thoughtfully considered and weighed in the balance. We have described this many times over the years in different ways. Suffice it to say the environment in which we live, work, and play is undoubtedly \u201cstormy\u201d (the statistical term is \u201cvolatile\u201d). Financial risks are evolving even as many of the economic pressures present in the world today are much the same as they have been for the past couple of years. Has the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/totalwealthpartnerscom.tinyemails.com\/c\/eyJ1IjozMTY1LCJtIjoyNzM2NDg3ODMsImwiOjEzNDMzNjJ9.BNomf6X7o4FzRS96iMAKU3L6KX4sVZvUDGFGwelJhPE.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">the storm<\/a>&nbsp;passed? We aren\u2019t so certain (and neither is the Fed);&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/totalwealthpartnerscom.tinyemails.com\/c\/eyJ1IjozMTY1LCJtIjoyNzM2NDg3ODMsImwiOjEzNDMzNjN9.Y1M9wZFA1bcplOCHVa6fktbQPNBbLRNcgZ09gB3rUrM.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">our piece <\/a>from roughly a year ago might be worth another look. It seems policy has in effect navigated us to the eye of the storm. Under the current circumstances perhaps the most realistic objective for our leaders in Washington is to keep us in the \u201ceye\u201d for as long as possible. Vigilance is key.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/totalwealthpartnerscom.tinyemails.com\/c\/eyJ1IjozMTY1LCJtIjoyNzM2NDg3ODMsImwiOjkzNTF9.gTnwrrprUtZFLxdJ_HqtymuUzJAjobDdgFpeegvy4HM.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">News Release: Bureau of Labor Statistics (The Employment Situation- March 2024)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Originally posted on <a href=\"https:\/\/totalwealthpartners.com\/news\/nonfarm-payrolls-march-2024\">Total Wealth Partners<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The labor market concluded the first quarter with a bang! <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1093,"featured_media":200965,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[339,338,341],"tags":[6725],"contributors-categories":[14745],"class_list":["post-204756","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-data-science","category-ibkr-quant-news","category-quant-development","tag-nonfarm-payroll","contributors-categories-total-wealth-partners"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Nonfarm Payrolls March 2024 | IBKR Quant<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The labor market concluded the first quarter with a 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He is a CFA charterholder and member of the CFA Institute. Mr. Klinke also belongs to the CFA Society of Houston. Prior to establishing TWP and KickPoint, Will worked for Merrill Lynch and Morgan Stanley, where he managed client portfolios and delivered customized asset-liability solutions. His extensive work with a broad array of clients became the cornerstone of what is now the TWP investment process and Total Wealth asset-liability management model. 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