{"id":204578,"date":"2024-04-05T11:15:00","date_gmt":"2024-04-05T15:15:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=204578"},"modified":"2024-04-10T11:10:54","modified_gmt":"2024-04-10T15:10:54","slug":"a-few-quick-thoughts-about-payrolls-and-recent-volatility","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/a-few-quick-thoughts-about-payrolls-and-recent-volatility\/","title":{"rendered":"A Few Quick Thoughts About Payrolls and Recent Volatility"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Another month, another upside surprise in Nonfarm Payrolls.  Another day, and another bout of volatility.  Can we expect both to continue?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here was my early reaction to this morning\u2019s employment report:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It was clear from yesterday\u2019s abrupt decline that traders suddenly became nervous about the prospect of holding long positions ahead of a Payrolls report. The decline would have been less eye-popping had traders not opened the day by chasing a modest rally for no apparent reason.   <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key to this morning\u2019s activity was that the reports were largely in line with expectations, with the obvious exception of the headline. An outlier in either direction would have spurred a dramatic reaction.  Instead, today\u2019s report showed the continued resilience of employment and wages, but not necessarily enough to change the narrative of a market that has already been steadily reducing its rate cut assumptions. The report is another data point in the \u201c<\/em>why exactly do we need rate cuts<\/em><\/a>\u201d school of thinking that includes [regional Fed Presidents] Bostic, Cook, Kashkari (and me). <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

First, a quick visual to show the market movements from yesterday and today with the perspective of the entire week\u2019s trading thus far.  As of midday today, we see a +1.3% rally in the S&P 500 (SPX), but that gets back only about half yesterday\u2019s intraday loss and still leaves us lower for the week:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

SPX 5-Day, 5-Minute Candles<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\"SPX<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now let\u2019s unpack the earlier sentences.  Yesterday we experienced a major intraday reversal.  While the SPX close-to-close decline was less than 2% – a daily drop that we haven\u2019t seen in months \u2013 the intraday high\/low range on that index was 2.1%.  It came seemingly out of nowhere.  Some reports attributed it to comments about a lack of rate cuts from Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari, but the reaction seemed outsized considering that other Fed Presidents \u2013 some of them voting members, unlike Kashkari \u2013 had made similar comments in recent days that were largely ignored by traders.  Some attributed the drop to the fact that Brent crude crossed the $90 mark.  We had literally written just that morning<\/a> about how rising oil prices posed risks to the stock market, but that seemed like an extreme reaction to a situation that has been building slowly.  (I\u2019d like to think I\u2019m on the ball, but I\u2019m not THAT good). <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Instead, I attribute the reversal to two factors:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  1. \u00a0It\u2019s not clear why we were rallying yesterday morning in the first place.\u00a0 Sure, it was understandable why traders might have started that day by buying the recent dips, but that was a bit much.\u00a0 Pre-market futures were up about 10 points or so.\u00a0 Quite fair.\u00a0 Why they shot up to +40 was not.\u00a0 Traders have generally done very well by pouncing on even the slightest excuse for a rally, but there was no follow-through.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  2. Once it was clear that the rally had no legs, we saw some profit-taking.\u00a0 That\u2019s quite sensible.\u00a0 But it\u2019s one thing to take profits on a normal day, another when there is a potentially market-moving set of economic reports due the following morning.\u00a0 There is a lot less incentive for traders to want to go home long, so when the selling got started, it cascaded quickly.\u00a0 Ironically, the lack of an obvious catalyst may have made the selling worse since few understood why it was occurring.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    Today we see a very solid rally after the numbers reaffirmed the notion of a solid economy.  Bond yields ticked up once again, but rate cut expectations remained generally in place (currently 60% for June, 100% for July, 2.75 cuts expected by December).  Bearing in mind that buy-the-dip and rally chasing remain a key feature of traders\u2019 mindsets, it shouldn\u2019t be all that surprising to see a rally that metastasizes yet again into something greater than the news might suggest.  Bear in mind that today is Friday, and in a bull market, traders are less concerned about the risk of going home with long positions than they are about the potential reward of chasing the 600+ stocks and indices that have expiring weekly options<\/a> (as opposed to the handful of indices and ETFs with daily expirations).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Here\u2019s one final thing to keep in mind: today\u2019s rally has barely dented the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX).  Sure, that too has dipped as today\u2019s rally continued, but it shows little current indication of returning immediately to the lower end of the recent 13-17 trading range.  Might this mean that investors have a little more regard for risk and volatility.  We\u2019ll see if that holds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    VIX 5-Day, 5-Minute Candles<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
    \"VIX<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Another month, another upside surprise in Nonfarm Payrolls. Another day, and another bout of volatility. 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