{"id":204255,"date":"2024-04-01T11:15:00","date_gmt":"2024-04-01T15:15:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=204255"},"modified":"2024-04-05T12:16:59","modified_gmt":"2024-04-05T16:16:59","slug":"so-begins-another-quarter-what-should-we-expect","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/so-begins-another-quarter-what-should-we-expect\/","title":{"rendered":"So Begins Another Quarter \u2013 What Should We Expect?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Last quarter was a phenomenal one by almost any standards for a wide range of risk assets in a large part of the globe.&nbsp; But markets are forward looking, by definition.&nbsp; Great quarter, guys \u2013 what will you do for us next quarter?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Last week, I put the phenomenal performances of global markets into perspective <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/imagine-if-we-could-annualize-this-quarter\/\">by annualizing the Q1 results<\/a> for several key indices.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"469\" height=\"358\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/04\/Picture1.png\" alt=\"Index Q1 Performance vs Annualized\" class=\"wp-image-204257 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/04\/Picture1.png 469w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/04\/Picture1-300x229.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 469px) 100vw, 469px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 469px; aspect-ratio: 469\/358;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>When displayed that way, it is difficult to imagine that major markets will be up 30-40% or so for the year (<a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/imagine-if-we-could-annualize-this-quarter\/\">Imagine If We Could Annualize This Quarter\u2026<\/a>).\u00a0 So the question becomes, \u201ccan this remarkable momentum continue unabated?\u201d\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To answer the basic question: sure, the momentum can indeed continue?&nbsp; Paraphrasing Newton\u2019s First Law, \u201cmarkets in motion tend to stay in motion until acted upon by an external force.\u201d&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But we can\u2019t assume that markets will remain essentially impervious to external forces indefinitely.&nbsp; What might those external forces be?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Earnings season begins in a couple of weeks<\/strong>.&nbsp; Expectations are generally high after last quarter\u2019s performance, but are those reasonable?<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Another factor is seasonality<\/strong>.&nbsp; Will \u201csell in May and go away\u201d apply this year?&nbsp; Seasonality is a fluky thing, but it might behoove investors to consider how to apply more defensive strategies while they still have a month to prepare.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>To that end \u2013&nbsp;<strong>dividend paying stocks<\/strong>&nbsp;\u2013 specifically those whose cash flows support steady payouts &#8212; offer downside protection while still allowing participation in a broadening market.&nbsp; Think of dividends as providing ballast to one\u2019s portfolio.&nbsp; While the sexiest investments this quarter have tended to be those with low payouts \u2013 like tech stocks \u2013 or no payouts &#8212; like bitcoin and gold \u2013 if we\u2019re considering strategies for a sideways or rocky market, dividends become much more appealing.&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Think about insurance using options.&nbsp; <\/strong>Even though it\u2019s never been more expensive to insure your home, it\u2019s rarely been cheaper to insure your portfolio.&nbsp; With any insurance, you don\u2019t actually&nbsp;<strong>want<\/strong>&nbsp;it to pay off!&nbsp; But you do want to sleep better at night.&nbsp; I don\u2019t love writing my semi-annual homeowners\u2019 insurance checks, but I\u2019d much rather not put in a claim. &nbsp;&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Another theme to watch in the coming weeks:&nbsp;<a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/why-do-we-need-rate-cuts\/\">Does the Fed really need to cut rates?<\/a> &nbsp;Fed Funds futures are questioning that theme after today\u2019s surprise ISM Prices Paid reading of 55.8 (vs. 53 expected and 52.5 last month).&nbsp; The likelihood for a June rate cut slipped below 50% briefly today, though it is now around 56%.&nbsp; But I continue to ponder why we need rate cuts if all manner of risk assets are rallying, including&nbsp;<a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/dont-sleep-on-global-stocks\/\">foreign stocks<\/a>&nbsp;and cryptocurrencies.&nbsp; Credit spreads and credit default swaps show no signs of overt stress, and the FOMC\u2019s&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/monetarypolicy\/fomcprojtabl20240320.htm\">Summary of Economic Projections<\/a>&nbsp;now anticipates 2.1% real GDP growth for 2024.&nbsp; Do those seem like the conditions that are calling for immediate cuts?<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>We\u2019ve all heard countless times that past performance is no guarantee of future results.&nbsp; After nearly six consecutive quarters with terrific performance, it\u2019s tempting to extrapolate those results into the next.&nbsp; As we said above, the trends can indeed continue.&nbsp; They\u2019re quite robust, to say the least, and very hard to bet against.&nbsp; But blindly expecting them to continue is more about hope than strategy.&nbsp; There are certainly strategic reasons to avoid \u201cfighting the tape\u201d, but it is always a prudent move to consider what might alter the market\u2019s mood and mindset.&nbsp; You don\u2019t get warnings when that wile occur, so you need to consider why and how it might.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Last quarter was a phenomenal one by almost any standards for a wide range of risk assets in a large part of the globe.  But markets are forward looking, by definition.  Great quarter, guys &#8211; what will you do for us next quarter?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":186549,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14700,6,8,9,22,26,3],"tags":[3598,2011,4109],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-204255","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-market-insights","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-region","10":"category-securities","11":"category-stocks","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"tag-market-outlook","15":"tag-q2","16":"tag-stock-market","17":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>So Begins Another Quarter \u2013 What Should We Expect?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Last quarter was a phenomenal one by almost any standards for a wide range of risk assets in a large part of the globe. 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