{"id":203639,"date":"2024-03-20T09:45:00","date_gmt":"2024-03-20T13:45:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=203639"},"modified":"2024-03-21T04:54:37","modified_gmt":"2024-03-21T08:54:37","slug":"stocks-at-record-levels-even-as-rate-cut-hopes-fade-the-strength-of-ai-hype-is-truly-historic","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/stocks-at-record-levels-even-as-rate-cut-hopes-fade-the-strength-of-ai-hype-is-truly-historic\/","title":{"rendered":"Stocks At Record Levels Even As Rate Cut Hopes Fade: &#8216;The Strength Of AI Hype Is Truly Historic&#8217;"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-zinger-key-points\">ZINGER KEY POINTS<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>At this point in the rally quality earnings are needed to drive market higher, says BofA.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Equity markets have disconnected with interest rate expectations as earnings prove resilient.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Even with the Federal Reserve poised to end all hopes of a March rate cut on Wednesday, the S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.benzinga.com\/markets\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">remains at record levels<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Adam Kobeissi<\/strong>, author of The Kobeissi Letter on X\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/KobeissiLetter\/status\/1770237803097366938\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">said<\/a>\u00a0on Tuesday: \u201cEven as three interest rate cuts were removed from market forecasts, the\u00a0<strong>S&amp;P 500<\/strong>\u00a0is just 10 points away from a new all time high.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Interest Rates Vs. Equity Markets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Note that through 2022 as the Fed was aggressively raising interest rates, the index moved lower \u2014 barring the occasional bounce higher.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While the Fed was still raising rates in 2023, it was doing so at a less aggressive pace, and investors sensed the central bank was nearing the end of its hiking cycle and pushed the index higher.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Fed\u2019s final hike came in July 2023, but it retained a hawkish tone at subsequent meetings and investors became weary of pushing against the tide, and between late July and late October, the index fell nearly 10%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Then came the long-awaited pivot. The first signal that the inclination towards hiking rates might be waning came in late October, as inflation fell by more than expected and&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/benzinga.com\/news\/earnings\/23\/10\/35325705\/wall-street-set-for-mixed-open-as-teslas-q3-blow-blunts-netflix-earnings-cheer-analyst-sees-sustain\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">comments from Fed Chair<\/a>&nbsp;<strong>Jerome Powell<\/strong>&nbsp;were interpreted as dovish.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The came the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/benzinga.com\/markets\/equities\/23\/11\/35601229\/fed-holds-rates-steady-powells-cautious-stance-soothes-investors-labor-market-softens-the-week-i\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">October\/November Fed meeting<\/a>, where rates were held steady for a second-consecutive month and markets began to price in rate cuts during the first half of 2024. At the loftiest of expectations, some economists were forecasting up to six rate cuts this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But the market hasn\u2019t stopped moving higher, even as hopes of a rate cut at Wednesday\u2019s meeting are off the table. The Fed has become more cautious in recent weeks as the last few percentage points of inflation become the toughest to budge. Now some economists believe we\u2019ll be lucky to see three rate cuts this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Historic AI Strength?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Kobeissi puts the market\u2019s resilience down to one thing: \u201cThe strength of AI hype is truly historic,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cOver the short run you\u2019re going to see AI keep pushing stocks higher. But as you move further out all eyes are on the Fed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThe Fed \u2018pivot\u2019 speech of December now seems premature. Markets are guiding three interest rate cuts, if we\u2019re lucky,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But it\u2019s not just about hype. With earnings season for the final quarter of 2023 all but over, the S&amp;P 500 index barely took a backward step \u2014 a couple of slight glitches, maybe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Earnings were, on the whole, positive with three-quarters of companies on the S&amp;P 500 reporting upside earnings surprises, and only 10% issuing negative guidance for the year ahead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThe era of lower quality growth where cheap capital and globalization contributed to margins is over. Now it&#8217;s time for sustainable efficiency and productivity gains supported by automation and&nbsp;AI,\u201d said analysts at Bank of America at the start of earnings season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This has been borne out by some of the biggest tech and AI names.&nbsp;<strong>Nvidia Corporation<\/strong>, as Benzinga reported earlier this month, added an incredible $1 trillion to its market cap in the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.benzinga.com\/analyst-ratings\/analyst-color\/24\/03\/37544925\/apple-vs-nvidia-only-one-added-1-trillion-in-67-days-as-battle-for-mega-cap-dominan\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">first 67 days of 2024.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This was not based on hype, but on solid performance as the company reported&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.benzinga.com\/news\/earnings\/24\/02\/37247922\/nvidia-q4-earnings-highlights-revenue-beat-eps-beat-q1-guidance-and-more\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">stellar earnings<\/a>&nbsp;and guidance. However, at 73x the company\u2019s price\/earnings ratio could be starting to look a little lofty.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In fact, most of the Magnificent Seven stocks, including&nbsp;<strong>Amazon.com Inc<\/strong>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<strong>Meta Platforms Inc<\/strong> reported stronger than expected earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Tesla Inc<\/strong>&nbsp;has been a rare failure in the sector, as the electric vehicle maker reported slowing demand for its cars.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Originally Posted March 20, 2024 &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.benzinga.com\/news\/earnings\/24\/03\/37846909\/stocks-at-record-levels-even-as-rate-cut-hopes-fade-the-strength-of-ai-hype-is-truly-historic\">Stocks At Record Levels Even As Rate Cut Hopes Fade: &#8216;The Strength Of AI Hype Is Truly Historic&#8217;<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Even with the Federal Reserve poised to end all hopes of a March rate cut on Wednesday, the S&amp;P 500 index remains at record levels.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1278,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6,8,9,22,26,3],"tags":[632,3598,4109],"contributors-categories":[13584],"class_list":{"0":"post-203639","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-north-america","7":"category-region","8":"category-securities","9":"category-stocks","10":"category-text-articles","11":"category-traders-insight","12":"tag-ai","13":"tag-market-outlook","14":"tag-stock-market","15":"contributors-categories-benzinga"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Stocks At Record Levels Even As 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