{"id":203586,"date":"2024-03-19T11:57:15","date_gmt":"2024-03-19T15:57:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=203586"},"modified":"2024-03-25T11:48:15","modified_gmt":"2024-03-25T15:48:15","slug":"chart-advisor-s-there-success-in-sri","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/chart-advisor-s-there-success-in-sri\/","title":{"rendered":"Chart Advisor: Is There Success in SRI?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

By\u00a0Adam Koos, CFP, CMT, CEPA<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investopedia is partnering with CMT Association on this newsletter. \u00a0The contents of this newsletter are for informational and educational purposes only, however, and do not constitute investing advice. The guest authors, which may sell research to investors, and may trade or hold positions in securities mentioned herein do not represent the views of CMT Association or Investopedia. Please consult a financial advisor for investment recommendations and services.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ESG and SRI: Using Technical Analysis<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Back in the day (and to me, that means the mid-2000\u2019s) when I was 4+ years into my career, I had a new client ask if I managed \u201cSocially Responsible\u201d portfolio models. <\/p>\n\n\n\n


First off, I hadn\u2019t even heard of them, but I simply answered, \u201cI don\u2019t\u2026 but for you, I can.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, I looked into it, did some reading, and what I learned was that Socially Responsible Investing came in a few different versions back then.  There were some mutual funds that avoided \u201csin\u201d stocks (such as cigarettes, tobacco, and pornography), other funds were more religious-based in nature, but there weren\u2019t a lot of them to choose from. <\/p>\n\n\n\n


Still, I built a portfolio for this client and in the first few years, they stuck with it.  A couple years later, the lag in performance caused them to want to move half of their money to a more \u201ctraditional\u201d portfolio model, and within a total of maybe 6-7 years, they had completely exited the SRI model and I closed it down. <\/p>\n\n\n\n


Today, however, there are way more options to choose from, and not only are the options vast, but there are also a lot of ETFs available that are much lower-cost than the old mutual funds that are still out there today.  If that wasn\u2019t good enough, the concept of SRI got a new name, and the industry started calling it Environmental, Social, & Governance (or ESG for short).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fast forward a few more years and again, we had a new client reach out and ask if this was something we did, but this time, there were so many more options to pick from, so I built another ESG\/SRI model and the back-testing came in much better than the lagging performance we experienced from the old mutual fund models.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1\/ Mutual Funds vs ETFs<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Just for fun, let\u2019s start with answering the questions, \u201cAre mutual funds better than ETFs or Stocks?\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To be fair, I simply googled the best ESG and SRI mutual funds and ETFs in 2023 and got\u00a0this article <\/a>from<\/a> Nerd Wallet<\/a>\u00a0as opposed to cherry picking my own funds to show my bias.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As you can see in the relative comparison chart above, the #1 performing ESG option is, in fact, a mutual fund (Vanguard\u2019s World Fund), however, the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th place winners are all ETFs \u2013 and<\/em><\/strong> again, in the interest of fairness, the article included the top-performing ESG funds over the last 5 years\u2026 and then listed the lowest-cost ETFs with no regard to ROR.  In other words, this was definitely not fair to the ETFs in question, but still, 3-of-7 ended up in the top-4, so that\u2019s saying something!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anyway, in case you can\u2019t tell what my bias is, I\u2019m a fan of lower-cost, passive ETFs than I am mutual funds.  In fact, we haven\u2019t used a mutual fund at our office in any portfolio models since we closed down the first ESG\/SRI model \u201cway back when\u201d (there\u2019s that phrase again).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oh, and individual stocks can add some serious spice to an ESG portfolio, by the way.  You just have to ensure you\u2019ve got a process for picking the right ones and managing risk along the way, so let\u2019s talk about that\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The first thing you need to do in order to build an ESG\/SRI stock model is to build an inventory of companies that qualify as being \u201csocially responsible.\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n

I didn\u2019t use either of the lists that follow, but to give you a start, here\u2019s a list of the\u00a010 Most Popular Stocks for ESG <\/a>Funds<\/a> from Investopedia<\/a>, and then\u00a0here\u2019s<\/a> <\/a>an even bigger list from IBD<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It would be my recommendation to have an inventory that is much larger than 10 stocks, so please expand your list to at least 30-40.\u00a0 There are other lists out there \u2013 I personally built my list of more than 100 names from an inventory that started as a socially responsible index, for instance.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2\/ Ranking the Stocks<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

From there, one great way to rank the stocks is by using relative strength.  This can be a ranking of performance over time, it can be days, weeks, months, you can use a Relative Rotation Graph, or you can remove time altogether and use a Point & Figure chart (or matrix), as I\u2019ll explain later. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

For the above-listed inventory, I used a weekly ranking system over time and broke them out into deciles.  From there, I can then make my life easier by focusing only on the high-RS stocks, then analyzing the chart for each at the right, observing trend and momentum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In this case, Williams Sonoma (WSM) ended up being the top-ranked stock, and I also noticed that there was a positive divergence that came out of momentum last spring, and the stock followed through to the northside in summer.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

3\/ Analyzing the Low Rank<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Now that we know what to do, let\u2019s discuss what NOT to do.  The above listed stock is Avis Budget Group (CAR), and it also happens to be the bottom-ranked stock in the ranking system.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

You can analyze the chart at the right (but be careful if you have a weak stomach), and along with its awful ranking, you can see a clear downtrend, a stock drowning below its 200-day moving average, with some terrible momentum staring you in the face from our friend, RSI in the bottom pane. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is a good time to say that, in technical analysis, we don\u2019t care much about the company\u2019s story, what it\u2019s P\/E ratio is, or if it\u2019s \u201cgone up too much.\u201d\u00a0 We care about buying strong stocks in strong sectors, in strong asset classes with strong trends and strong momentum \u2013 we like buying stocks that are going up\u2026 not stocks that are going down.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

4\/ Relative Rotation Graph<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Here\u2019s another way to pick ESG\/SRI stocks \u2013 with a Relative Rotation Graph (or RRG for short).  This might look like a lot of spaghetti at first, but it\u2019s actually one of THE best ways to visualize relative strength (or high-RS stocks).  First, let\u2019s understand the quadrants on the chart:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  • Upper left = Improving vs. the benchmark<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Upper right = Leading the benchmark<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Lower right = Weakening vs. the benchmark<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Lower left = Lagging the benchmark<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

    The \u201cbenchmark\u201d is whatever you want it to be, but in this case, it\u2019s the S&P500, and it lies at the zero point on the x\/y axis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Now, you might think to yourself, \u201cI want to own stocks that are leading the benchmark,\u201d right?  Well, you\u2019re close \u2013 but entry points using RRGs requires a little art, a little science, and a lot of testing. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Nerd\u2019s Note:  That oblong oval I added to the middle of the chart isn\u2019t a portal\u2026 it\u2019s an area that measures 2 standard deviations from the benchmark on a relative basis.  The purpose is to \u201cweed out\u201d all the stocks that are trading near-center.  Stocks that are behaving with roughly the same or similar RS to the market overall.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    I circled a few stocks in the RRG above.  Notice what they all have in common?  They\u2019re all exiting the lagging quadrant, pointing northeast, and have entered the improving quadrant.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Now, buying a stock that is still in the lagging quadrant, but pointing northeast and moving toward the improving quadrant can be an even better entry point.  Furthermore, buying a stock that has already left the leading quadrant, but it\u2019s done a 180-degree turn and \u201cjackknifed\u201d back upward, where it\u2019s pointing northeast again, toward the leading quadrant\u2026 this can also be a great entry point as well. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    In either case, once you identify potential candidates for your portfolio, you then must analyze the individual chart, look for trend, momentum, and above all, know what your exit strategy is before you even get in.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    5\/ RRG Animated<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
    \"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    I showed you what a static RRG looks like using my inventory of ESG\/SRI stocks today, but I thought it would be fun to animate the chart, just to show you how these things work over time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Notice anything about the direction of the rotation for most of the stocks on the chart?  Yep \u2013 they\u2019re generally moving clockwise.  This is why I mentioned that RRGs are one of the best ways to visualize relative strength \u2013 and if nothing else, a chart like this is outright proof that RS exists!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Since we expect the chart to move clockwise, then we know that eventually, the stocks we buy will end up failing, falling out of favor, and lagging the market.  For this reason, I feel it\u2019s necessary to repeat the fact that having an exit strategy is so crucial to the success of any portfolio management model. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Firefighters, SWAT teams, the Navy Seals \u2013 none of them go into battle without an exit strategy \u2013 and when it comes to your money, you shouldn\u2019t, either.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    6\/ Point and Figure<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
    \"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    This is my last issue on Investopedia\u2019s Chart Advisor this time around \u2013 and this is my last chart of the issue.  Sorry it\u2019s so messy, but I promised (above) that I\u2019d show you how to remove time from a ranking system, and doing so is all about using Point & Figure (PnF) charts, which can get a little messy-looking (instead of spaghetti, PnF matrices look more like chess boards).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    There are a couple ways to use it as a ranking system, but I\u2019m going to focus on the simplest \u2013 a buy-signal ranking system. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    If you look down the list on the left, you\u2019ll see the list of symbols and stocks.  Then, if you look across the top-right, you\u2019ll see the same exact symbols (although, I ran out of screen room and couldn\u2019t screenshot all of them, but they\u2019re all there). <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    What\u2019s happening here is, each stock is essentially \u201cgoing into battle\u201d with every other stock in a round-robin, battle royale.  Each and every day, this matrix refreshes and it gives me a new ranking system based on the price movements of the most recently closing price for each stock.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


    Because PnF charts don\u2019t use time as an input, if there is no price movement, then there would be no change in the ranking.  In fact, while very unlikely, we could go six months and if there wasn\u2019t a single move in price for any of the stocks in the matrix, then there would be no change in ranking!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    A \u201cbuy signal\u201d simply means that the stock has printed a higher-high on a PnF chart using a 3-box reversal method.  Again, I don\u2019t want to make this more complicated than it needs to be, but let\u2019s just say that each buy-signal is a \u201cwin\u201d for that stock, and when all those wins are tallied up, the one with the most buy signals is the top-ranked stock, second-most is the second-ranked stock, and so on. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    In the end, you find yourself with a ranking system that observes price, alone, with no time accounted for in your back test.  So, if there are a big movements in price, but with no regard for time, then the ranking system will change.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    While PnF doesn\u2019t get a lot of attention, I feel they\u2019re a great tool to have in your toolbox of technical indicators and ranking systems\u2026 but it should go without saying, if I can say it one more time today \u2013 that no matter what your screening process for new investments \u2013 always, always, always have an exit strategy!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \u2026until next time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    — <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Originally posted on March 19th 2024<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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