{"id":203580,"date":"2024-03-19T11:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-03-19T15:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=203580"},"modified":"2024-03-20T05:00:26","modified_gmt":"2024-03-20T09:00:26","slug":"hitting-snooze-on-the-bond-trade","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/hitting-snooze-on-the-bond-trade\/","title":{"rendered":"Hitting Snooze on the Bond Trade"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-commentary\">Commentary<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-market-recap\">Market Recap<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Equity markets struggled this week, with firm U.S. inflation data further pushing out Fed easing expectations, and even the Bank of Japan is set to end an era of negative interest rate policy.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The S&amp;P 500 dipped 0.1%, with Consumer Discretionary and Health Care lagging.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The TSX added 0.5%, as Energy and Materials posted solid gains.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-inflation\">Inflation<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>With the U.S. Federal Reserve\u2019s (Fed) \u201cdot plot\u201d\u2014a projection of the expected interest rate trajectory\u2014set to be released this week, attention has turned to recent inflation numbers. Data released last week showed that prices picked up slightly in February, prompting questions about whether rate cuts in 2024 could be in jeopardy. Let\u2019s address the biggest concern first: no, we don\u2019t expect the Fed to move away from their rate cut trajectory. However, we\u2019re not likely to see 50 bps cuts on the way down like we saw 50 bps hikes on the way up, and the schedule for rate cuts is not likely to be aggressive, either. Some investors and analysts have been expecting more than three rate decreases before the end of 2024. In our view, this is aggressive and may not happen, but we continue to believe that between two and three cuts is the most likely scenario. Given the continuing resilience of the U.S. economy, we wouldn\u2019t necessarily be surprised if there are no rate cuts at all in 2024. That is not our base case, however.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Bottom Line:&nbsp;<\/strong>With inflation persisting, we wouldn\u2019t be shocked if the Fed doesn\u2019t lower interest rates in 2024; the most likely scenario, however, is two-to-three rate cuts before the end of the year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-bonds\">Bonds<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The U.S. Treasury\u2019s monthly auctions for bonds showed relatively weak demand in March. Should this worry fixed income investors, and does it mean that interest rate spreads are likely to blow out? In our view, there is some risk\u2014it\u2019s not disastrous that the auctions drew little interest, but it\u2019s certainly not a great sign. Low demand for bonds means that yields will have to go up in order for them to be attractive, and that\u2019s not necessarily positive for bond returns; bond yields tend to be inversely correlated with bond prices. However, if rate cuts do seem imminent later in the year, then that would be a tailwind for bonds because yields would likely head lower and investors would start to believe that bond prices will pick up. With the current pace of equity returns, we could see demand pick up for bonds as equity valuations start to become excessive, but we are not there yet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Bottom Line:&nbsp;<\/strong>Weak demand for bonds isn\u2019t great news, but potential interest rate cuts and a rotation from equities could cause demand to pick up later in the year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-earnings\">Earnings<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>With persistent inflation, speculation about interest rates, and political (and geopolitical) news all creating noise in markets, what should investors expect from corporate earnings for the rest of the year? Overall, we\u2019re still optimistic. As long as the consumer is spending and the employment picture looks relatively good, which is the case at present, we wouldn\u2019t anticipate any major misses. However, keep in mind that expectations do remain high and the bar to beat may not be easy. As the year progresses, there may be an adjustment in spending patterns\u2014we\u2019ve already seen some of that earlier in the year with luxury items, though that trade down seems to have stalled in the last quarter. For now, though, money continues to flow into Consumer Discretionary, and consumers don\u2019t seem to be adjusting as sharply as some had expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Bottom Line:&nbsp;<\/strong>We\u2019re still optimistic on corporate earnings, though they may be affected by adjustments in consumer spending in the second half of the year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-positioning\">Positioning<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>For a detailed breakdown of our portfolio positioning, check out the latest BMO GAM House View Report, titled\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/bmofundcentral.com\/gam-monthly-house-view\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><em>The Bulls Keep Running: Why Markets Remain Upbeat<\/em>opens in new window<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Originally Posted March 18, 2024 &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bmogam.com\/ca-en\/insights\/weekly-commentary-mar-18-hitting-snooze-on-the-bond-trade\/\">Hitting Snooze on the Bond Trade<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Disclosures:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The viewpoints expressed by the Portfolio Manager represents their assessment of the markets at the time of publication. Those views are subject to change without notice at any time without any kind of notice. The information provided herein does not constitute a solicitation of an offer to buy, or an offer to sell securities nor should the information be relied upon as investment advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. This communication is intended for informational purposes only.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>BMO Global Asset Management is a brand name under which BMO Asset Management Inc. and BMO Investments Inc. operate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Any statement that necessarily depends on future events may be a forward-looking statement. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of performance. They involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions. Although such statements are based on assumptions that are believed to be reasonable, there can be no assurance that actual results will not differ materially from expectations. Investors are cautioned not to rely unduly on any forward-looking statements. In connection with any forward-looking statements, investors should carefully consider the areas of risk described in the most recent simplified prospectus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This article is for information purposes. The information contained herein is not, and should not be construed as, investment, tax or legal advice to any party. Investments should be evaluated relative to the individual\u2019s investment objectives and professional advice should be obtained with respect to any circumstance.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Equity markets struggled this week, with firm U.S. inflation data further pushing out Fed easing expectations, and even the Bank of Japan is set to end an era of negative interest rate 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