{"id":203542,"date":"2024-03-18T11:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-03-18T15:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=203542"},"modified":"2024-03-25T09:55:49","modified_gmt":"2024-03-25T13:55:49","slug":"weekly-market-recap-march-18-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/weekly-market-recap-march-18-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Weekly Market Recap: March 18, 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-week-in-review\">The week in review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Headline CPI rose by 0.4% m\/m and 3.2% y\/y<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Core CPI rose 0.4% m\/m and 3.8% y\/y<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>PPI accelerated to 0.6% m\/m<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Consumer sentiment fell to 76.5, down from 76.9<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-week-ahead\">The week ahead<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Housing starts<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Building permits<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>FOMC meeting<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-thought-of-the-week\">Thought of the Week<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>After the U.S. economy\u2019s impressive 4% annualized growth in the second half of 2023, investors are searching for clues as to whether this strong momentum will persist into 2024. For much of this quarter, the closely watched Atlanta Fed GDPNow model has forecasted growth of at or above 3%. However, after last week\u2019s retail sales report, estimates were revised meaningfully lower.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Retail sales rose 0.6% m\/m in February, marking the fastest gain since September. However, sales for January and December were revised down by 0.5% and 0.3%, respectively. Spending at gas stations rose 0.9%, reflecting higher gasoline prices, while spending at auto dealers and building material suppliers only partially recovered last month\u2019s losses. Importantly, control group retail sales, which are used to calculate GDP and exclude gasoline, autos, building materials and food services, looked bleak, remaining unchanged after a 0.3% decline in January. With control group sales now tracking negative through the first two months of the year, the Atlanta Fed nowcast for 1Q real personal consumption fell from 3.4% to 2.2%, dragging the latest GDPNow estimate for 1Q24 growth down to 2.3%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Overall, consumer momentum appears to be fading after an impressive 2023. However, as falling inflation and rising real wages offset dwindling excess savings, even moderate consumption growth could carry the U.S. economy to a soft-landing this year. In this environment, stocks could grind higher while bond yields remain relatively stable, although a well-diversified portfolio may best protect against any unforeseen threats that could emerge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1005\" height=\"404\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/Screenshot-2024-03-18-105104.png\" alt=\"Atlanta Fed GDPNow\" class=\"wp-image-203543 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/Screenshot-2024-03-18-105104.png 1005w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/Screenshot-2024-03-18-105104-700x281.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/Screenshot-2024-03-18-105104-300x121.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/Screenshot-2024-03-18-105104-768x309.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1005px) 100vw, 1005px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1005px; aspect-ratio: 1005\/404;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"473\" height=\"80\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/Screenshot-2024-03-18-105128.png\" alt=\"Chart and thought of the week sources\" class=\"wp-image-203544 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/Screenshot-2024-03-18-105128.png 473w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/Screenshot-2024-03-18-105128-300x51.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 473px) 100vw, 473px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 473px; aspect-ratio: 473\/80;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u2014<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Originally Posted March 18, 2024 \u2013\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/am.jpmorgan.com\/us\/en\/asset-management\/adv\/insights\/market-insights\/market-updates\/weekly-market-recap\/\">Weekly Market Recap<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Past performance does not guarantee future results.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Diversification does not guarantee investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of financial market trends, which are based on current market conditions. We believe the information provided here is reliable, but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The views and strategies described may not be appropriate for all investors. This material has been prepared for informational purposes only, and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice. References to future returns are not promises or even estimates of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Market Insights program provides comprehensive data and commentary on global markets without reference to products. Designed as a tool to help clients understand the markets and support investment decision-making, the program explores the implications of current economic data and changing market conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The J.P. Morgan Asset Management Market Insights and Portfolio Insights programs, as non-independent research, have not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, nor are they subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature<br>or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from J.P. Morgan Asset Management or any of its subsidiaries to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professional, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>J.P. Morgan Asset Management is the brand for the asset management business of JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. and its affiliates worldwide.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Telephone calls and electronic communications may be monitored and\/or recorded.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Personal data will be collected, stored and processed by J.P. Morgan Asset Management in accordance with our privacy policies at https:\/\/www.jpmorgan.com\/privacy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This communication is issued in the United States, by J.P. Morgan Investment Management Inc. or J.P. Morgan Alternative Asset Management, Inc., both regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If you are a person with a disability and need additional support in viewing the material, please call us at 1-800-343-1113 for assistance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Copyright 2024 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><sup>\u00a9<\/sup>JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., March 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Unless otherwise stated, all data is as of March 18, 2024 or as of most recently available<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>As falling inflation and rising real wages offset dwindling excess savings, even moderate consumption growth could carry the U.S. economy to a soft-landing this year.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":186,"featured_media":203543,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[77,1685,2298],"contributors-categories":[13608],"class_list":{"0":"post-203542","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-macro","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-region","10":"category-securities","11":"category-text-articles","12":"category-traders-insight","13":"tag-fed","14":"tag-macro","15":"tag-market-recap","16":"contributors-categories-j-p-morgan-asset-management"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.5) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Weekly Market 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