![\"Recent](\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/1-1.png\")
<\/figure>\n\n\n\n![\"Summary](\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/2-1-1.png\")
<\/figure>\n\n\n\n![\"Federal](\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/3-1.png\")
<\/figure>\n\n\n\nHigh points for US economic data scheduled for March 18 week<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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At the midpoint of the March 18 week is the release of the FOMC statement and summary of economic projections (SEP) at 14:00 ET on Wednesday followed by Chair Jerome Powell\u2019s press briefing at 14:30 ET. There\u2019s nothing on the data calendar in the days before the FOMC deliberations that is likely to change the outlook for monetary policy, and nothing immediately after that might trigger a rethink.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In his semiannual monetary policy testimony on March 6-7, Powell indicated that the current fed funds rate is probably at the peak of this tightening cycle. The fed funds rate range is currently at 5.25-5.50 percent where it has been since July 2023. With little prospect of another rate hike, the burning question becomes when will the easing cycle begin?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The update to the SEP should provide an answer, at least where FOMC forecasts stand. Powell has said that expectations are for rate cuts later this year if, however, the economic data support it. Since Powell\u2019s testimony, the data point to a still tight labor market with little sign that conditions are loosening materially, and that underlying inflation is not returning to the Fed\u2019s two percent objective quite as quickly. Shelter costs remain elevated and non-housing services are not decelerating as much as commodity prices. This may mean that the previous forecast for 75 basis points in cuts in the fed funds rate in 2024 could be altered to imply less reduction in the fed funds rate this year, or even to delay a cut until next year out of an abundance of caution in the fight against allowing inflation to be become entrenched.<\/p>\n\n\n\n