{"id":203210,"date":"2024-03-07T11:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-03-07T16:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=203210"},"modified":"2024-03-13T10:29:17","modified_gmt":"2024-03-13T14:29:17","slug":"rate-cuts-who-needs-rate-cuts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/rate-cuts-who-needs-rate-cuts\/","title":{"rendered":"Rate Cuts?\u00a0 Who Needs Rate Cuts?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Earlier today, in the ECB\u2019s post-meeting press conference President Lagarde stated that \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2024-03-07\/ecb-s-lagarde-signals-june-rate-cut-with-2-inflation-in-sight?sref=UQoV8r0O\">we did not discuss cuts<\/a>\u201d,&nbsp; yet the Stoxx Europe 600 Index (DJ600) crossed the 500 level for the first time today.&nbsp; Meanwhile, in Senate testimony, Federal Reserve Chair Powell said nothing to indicate that a rate cut cycle was about to begin.&nbsp; Considering the rallies in a wide range of global markets, might the mere prospect of potential cuts be sufficient?&nbsp; For that matter, do equities really need cuts to continue to rally?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As we began the year, one of the reasons for optimism was that global central banks would begin an aggressive rate cutting cycle.&nbsp; In mid-December, the Federal Reserve signaled that they expected three rate cuts during the course of the coming year, and traders responded by pricing in as many as six or seven 25-basis point cuts.&nbsp; Something similar occurred in Europe, where traders began the year with nearly identical expectations.&nbsp; <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/dude-wheres-my-cuts\/\">As we noted recently<\/a>, global equities have rallied even as rate cut expectations have ebbed substantially \u2013 three to four cuts are now expected in both Europe and the US.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To be fair, both central bankers\u2019 comments have left open the prospect of cuts sometime later this year.&nbsp; A wide range of post-ECB commentators heard President Lagarde\u2019s comments and decided that a June cut would be forthcoming.&nbsp; That\u2019s nothing new, however.&nbsp; Markets are pricing in a 93% probability for a June cut, which is nearly identical to yesterday\u2019s assumption.&nbsp; Although the FOMC doesn\u2019t meet until two weeks from yesterday, the probability for a June cut is quite similar at 95%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yet if I was a central banker, I\u2019d be wondering why a rate cut is even necessary, particularly in the US.&nbsp; The economy seems to be doing just fine, with GDP around the 3% levels to which we had become accustomed. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"936\" height=\"443\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/Picture3-3.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-203214 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/Picture3-3.png 936w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/Picture3-3-700x331.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/Picture3-3-300x142.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/Picture3-3-768x363.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 936px) 100vw, 936px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 936px; aspect-ratio: 936\/443;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/series\/A191RO1Q156NBEA\">St. Louis Fed<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This morning, we received welcome news about Nonfarm Productivity, which matched last quarter\u2019s 3.2% and exceeded the 3.1% consensus estimate, while Unit Labor Costs rose by only 0.4%, less than last month\u2019s 0.5% and below the 0.7% consensus.&nbsp; Pre-market futures, which were already rallying because, well, that\u2019s what they do seemingly every morning, got a boost from the welcome data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"936\" height=\"446\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/Picture2-5.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-203213 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/Picture2-5.png 936w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/Picture2-5-700x334.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/Picture2-5-300x143.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/Picture2-5-768x366.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 936px) 100vw, 936px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 936px; aspect-ratio: 936\/446;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/series\/PRS85006091\">St. Louis Fed<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At the same time, the Fed continues to engage in quantitative tightening, reducing the size of its securities holdings, and thus its balance sheet.&nbsp; While that might have had some effect in 2022, equities have paid no mind to the asset shrinkage at the Fed:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"936\" height=\"663\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/Picture1-6.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-203212 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/Picture1-6.png 936w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/Picture1-6-700x496.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/Picture1-6-300x213.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/Picture1-6-768x544.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 936px) 100vw, 936px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 936px; aspect-ratio: 936\/663;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/releases\/h41\/\">Federal Reserve H.4.1 reports<\/a>, Interactive Brokers<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As noted above, if I were a central banker looking at a solid economy, high productivity, and relatively full employment, alongside global stock markets and a wide range of speculative assets like bitcoin at or near all-time highs, why exactly do we need to cut rates?&nbsp; The point of rate cuts is to stimulate an economy, but it\u2019s doing fine with rates where they are.&nbsp; And markets are telling us that they\u2019re doing more than fine with the current status quo, even as expectations for future cuts have shrunk.&nbsp; Is it possible that the Fed an ECB are now simply dangling the prospect of rate cuts in front of eager traders like a carrot in front of a donkey?&nbsp; Heck, that\u2019s what I would do if I ran a central bank right now.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p> Considering the rallies in a wide range of global markets, might the mere prospect of potential cuts be sufficient?  For that matter, do equities really need cuts to continue to rally?  <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":203217,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14700,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[570,1685,4979],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-203210","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-market-insights","8":"category-macro","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"tag-inflation","15":"tag-macro","16":"tag-rate-cuts","17":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Rate Cuts?\u00a0 Who Needs Rate Cuts? | Traders&#039; Insight<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/203210\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Rate Cuts?\u00a0 Who Needs Rate Cuts? | IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Considering the rallies in a wide range of global markets, might the mere prospect of potential cuts be sufficient? 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