{"id":203176,"date":"2024-03-07T09:30:00","date_gmt":"2024-03-07T14:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=203176"},"modified":"2024-03-07T13:22:26","modified_gmt":"2024-03-07T18:22:26","slug":"making-up-quickly-for-lost-ground","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/making-up-quickly-for-lost-ground\/","title":{"rendered":"Making up quickly for lost ground"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Wednesday&#8217;s session saw a willingness to buy Tuesday&#8217;s dip. It also saw a willingness to do some selling from higher levels reached after Tuesday&#8217;s dip was bought. In the end, though, the buy-the-dip trade prevailed and the major indices closed Wednesday&#8217;s session higher than where they started.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The successful campaign was a broad market effort, supported by an absence of any newly hawkish-sounding commentary from Fed Chair Powell before the House Financial Services Committee in day one of his semiannual monetary policy testimony.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Fed Chair effectively reiterated what he said at his press conference following the January 30-31 FOMC meeting. The Fed wants to see more data to gain confidence inflation is moving sustainably toward its 2% target and that it may be appropriate to cut rates later this year if the economy evolves as expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He returns to Congress today, appearing before the Senate Banking Committee at 10:00 a.m. ET for the final day of his testimony. His appearance on Capitol Hill is a precursor to the buzz of activity that will be seen in Congress tonight when President Biden delivers the State of the Union Address.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A short time ago, the ECB delivered the news that it had decided to keep the three key ECB interest rates unchanged, as expected. In turn, staff projections featured a downward revision to inflation and growth forecasts, which will likely help feed expectations that the ECB could be inclined to cut rates later this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Treasury market for its part has been cutting rates. The 2-yr note yield is at 4.52%, down ten basis points this month, and the 10-yr note yield is at 4.07%, down 18 basis points this month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Those moves have helped underpin the stock market&#8217;s continuing advance, which is set to continue at today&#8217;s open.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Currently, the S&amp;P 500 futures are up 22 points and are trading 0.5% above fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are up 107 points and are trading 0.6% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 100 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The requisite stock check shows&nbsp;<strong>NVIDIA (NVDA)<\/strong>&nbsp;up another 1.8% and trading over $900 per share. When the year began, NVIDIA was trading just under $500 per share. Its enduring strength has been integral to the market&#8217;s enduring bullish sentiment. Modest gains in other mega-cap stocks have helped prop up the futures market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Also helping has been a round of economic data that was supportive of the soft landing\/no landing outlook that is integral for continued earnings growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Initial jobless claims for the week ending March 2 were unchanged at 217,000 (Briefing.com consensus 217,000). Continuing jobless claims for the week ending February 24 increased by 8,000 to 1.906 million.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The key takeaway from the report is the low glide path initial claims (a leading indicator) continues to follow, which is indicative of a labor market that remains on a relatively encouraging glide path.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Q4 Productivity growth was left unchanged at 3.2% (Briefing.com consensus 3.1%) while unit labor costs were revised down to 0.4% (Briefing.com consensus 0.6%) from 0.5%.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The key takeaway from the report was the same as the one for the advance estimate: unit labor costs were tame in the fourth quarter thanks to the solid increase in productivity.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The January trade deficit widened to $67.4 billion (Briefing.com consensus -$63.3 billion) from a downwardly revised $64.2 billion (from -$62.2 billion) for December. The widening was the result of imports being $3.6 billion more than December imports and exports being only $0.3 billion more than December exports.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The key takeaway from the report is that the increase in imports and exports, most of which was concentrated in autos and capital goods, is indicative of a pickup in global trade that would be associated with a pickup in economic activity.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>The equity futures trade, meanwhile, is indicative of a pickup in buying activity that will set the S&amp;P 500 on course to reclaim all of what it lost on Tuesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Originally Posted March 7, 2024 &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.briefing.com\/page-one\">Making up quickly for lost ground<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p> In the end, though, the buy-the-dip trade prevailed and the major indices closed Wednesday&#8217;s session higher than where they started.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":60,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,6,8,9,22,26,3],"tags":[1685,14020,1294,44],"contributors-categories":[13589],"class_list":{"0":"post-203176","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-macro","7":"category-north-america","8":"category-region","9":"category-securities","10":"category-stocks","11":"category-text-articles","12":"category-traders-insight","13":"tag-macro","14":"tag-market-brief","15":"tag-market-open","16":"tag-stocks","17":"contributors-categories-briefing-com"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Making up quickly for lost ground | Traders&#039; Insight<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"In the end, though, the buy-the-dip trade prevailed and the major indices closed Wednesday&#039;s session higher than where they started.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/203176\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Making up quickly for lost ground | IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"In the end, though, the buy-the-dip trade prevailed and the major indices closed Wednesday&#039;s session higher than where they started.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/making-up-quickly-for-lost-ground\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2024-03-07T14:30:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-03-07T18:22:26+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Patrick J. 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