{"id":203109,"date":"2024-03-05T12:45:14","date_gmt":"2024-03-05T17:45:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=203109"},"modified":"2024-03-06T04:22:11","modified_gmt":"2024-03-06T09:22:11","slug":"the-fantastic-four-beats-the-magnificent-seven","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/the-fantastic-four-beats-the-magnificent-seven\/","title":{"rendered":"The Fantastic Four Beats the Magnificent Seven"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>What\u2019s in a number?&nbsp; College football fans know that the both the Big 10 and Big 12 Conferences each has 14 teams<a href=\"#_edn1\" id=\"_ednref1\">[i]<\/a>, so do we really need to be sticklers about whether the \u201cMagnificent Seven\u201d actually has seven components?&nbsp; I\u2019ll argue \u201cno\u201d, since the Mag 7 is at best an artificial construct anyway.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A normalized chart of the relative performance of the seven stocks versus both the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) and the UBS Magnificent 7 Index (a cap-weighted, seven stock index created in October 2023) shows quite disparate performances by the constituent members on a year-to-date and longer-term basis:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-year-to-date-normalized-chart-ubs-mag-7-index-white-ndx-green-aapl-blue-amzn-red-googl-lilac-meta-yellow-msft-blue-nvda-orange-tsla-magenta\"><strong><em>Year-to-date Normalized Chart, UBS Mag 7 Index (white), NDX (green), AAPL (blue), AMZN (red), GOOGL (lilac), META (yellow), MSFT (blue), NVDA (orange), TSLA (magenta)<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"623\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/Picture4-1-1100x623.png\" alt=\"Year-to-date Normalized Chart, UBS Mag 7 Index (white), NDX (green), AAPL (blue), AMZN (red), GOOGL (lilac), META (yellow), MSFT (blue), NVDA (orange), TSLA (magenta)\" class=\"wp-image-203113 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/Picture4-1-1100x623.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/Picture4-1-700x396.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/Picture4-1-300x170.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/Picture4-1-768x435.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/Picture4-1-1536x870.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/Picture4-1.png 1634w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/623;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There are some interesting takeaways from the chart above:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>For starters, it is interesting to note that the Mag 7 has roughly identical performance with NDX on a year-to-date basis.&nbsp; Thus, it is not improper to use the Mag 7 as a proxy for the larger, actively traded index.&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>As with any index or average, some components outperform while others underperform.&nbsp; In this case it\u2019s an even split: three outperformers (NVDA, META, AMZN), three underperformers (GOOGL, AAPL, TSLA) and one average performer (MSFT).&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The relative performances are similar when we graph them on a longer-term basis. Here is the same chart dated back to November 1, 2023, when the current upsurge began:<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-normalized-chart-since-november-1-2023-ubs-mag-7-index-white-ndx-green-aapl-blue-amzn-red-googl-lilac-meta-yellow-msft-blue-nvda-orange-tsla-magenta\"><strong><em>Normalized Chart Since November 1, 2023, UBS Mag 7 Index (white), NDX (green), AAPL (blue), AMZN (red), GOOGL (lilac), META (yellow), MSFT (blue), NVDA (orange), TSLA (magenta)<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"620\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/Picture3-2-1100x620.png\" alt=\"Normalized Chart Since November 1, 2023, UBS Mag 7 Index (white), NDX (green), AAPL (blue), AMZN (red), GOOGL (lilac), META (yellow), MSFT (blue), NVDA (orange), TSLA (magenta)\" class=\"wp-image-203112 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/Picture3-2-1100x620.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/Picture3-2-700x394.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/Picture3-2-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/Picture3-2-768x433.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/Picture3-2.png 1526w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/620;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And here it is on a one-year basis:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-1-year-normalized-chart-ubs-mag-7-index-white-ndx-green-aapl-blue-amzn-red-googl-lilac-meta-yellow-msft-blue-nvda-orange-tsla-magenta\"><strong><em>1-Year Normalized Chart, UBS Mag 7 Index (white), NDX (green), AAPL (blue), AMZN (red), GOOGL (lilac), META (yellow), MSFT (blue), NVDA (orange), TSLA (magenta)<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"630\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/Picture2-3-1100x630.png\" alt=\"1-Year Normalized Chart, UBS Mag 7 Index (white), NDX (green), AAPL (blue), AMZN (red), GOOGL (lilac), META (yellow), MSFT (blue), NVDA (orange), TSLA (magenta)\" class=\"wp-image-203111 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/Picture2-3-1100x630.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/Picture2-3-700x401.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/Picture2-3-300x172.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/Picture2-3-768x440.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/Picture2-3.png 1520w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/630;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Shortly before Tesla (TSLA) released its last earnings report, <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/magnificent-seven-may-need-a-roster-change\/\">we advocated for its removal<\/a> from the Mag 7, to be replaced by Broadcom (AVGO).&nbsp; Certainly that would have been an improvement, with AVGO rising as TSLA fell in the ensuing period:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-normalized-chart-since-january-22nd-2024-ubs-mag-7-index-white-ndx-green-aapl-blue-amzn-red-googl-lilac-meta-yellow-msft-blue-nvda-orange-tsla-magenta\"><strong><em>Normalized Chart Since January 22nd, 2024, UBS Mag 7 Index (white), NDX (green), AAPL (blue), AMZN (red), GOOGL (lilac), META (yellow), MSFT (blue), NVDA (orange), TSLA (magenta)<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"638\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/Picture1-3-1100x638.png\" alt=\"Normalized Chart Since January 22nd, 2024, UBS Mag 7 Index (white), NDX (green), AAPL (blue), AMZN (red), GOOGL (lilac), META (yellow), MSFT (blue), NVDA (orange), TSLA (magenta)\" class=\"wp-image-203110 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/Picture1-3-1100x638.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/Picture1-3-700x406.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/Picture1-3-300x174.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/Picture1-3-768x445.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/Picture1-3-1536x891.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/Picture1-3.png 1626w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/638;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That would have given us an extra outperformer and one less underperformer, but I doubt that would have moved the psychological needle.&nbsp; The Mag 7 is as much about mindshare as it is about market capitalization.&nbsp; Even though AVGO is larger and a recently a better performer than TSLA, only NVDA occupies a bigger mindshare among investors than the latter company.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That\u2019s why I now assert that we should be shrinking the roster of the Mag 7 to either the Big 5<a id=\"_ednref2\" href=\"#_edn2\">[ii]<\/a>\u00a0 or the Fantastic Four.\u00a0 So what if it narrows the market leadership?\u00a0 No one seems to mind anyway.\u00a0 Starting last spring, we asserted that \u201c<a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/its-nvidias-world-were-just-living-and-investing-in-it\/\">It\u2019s Nvidia\u2019s World, We\u2019re Just Living (and Investing) in It<\/a>\u201d.\u00a0 We can add to the supporting cast with three, six, or however many components we want, but as long as NVDA is leading the parade, the rest of the market is following along.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref1\" id=\"_edn1\">[i]<\/a> The Big 10 will be adding four more teams later this year, while the Big 12 adds another two.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref2\" id=\"_edn2\">[ii]<\/a> A shout-out to Philadelphia-area basketball, even though that unofficial regional group now contains six teams.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Do we really need to be sticklers about whether the &#8220;Magnificent Seven&#8221; actually has seven components?  I\u2019ll argue &#8220;no&#8221;, since the Mag 7 is at best an artificial construct anyway. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":203114,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[6,8,9,22,26,3],"tags":[15439,3598,4109],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-203109","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-north-america","8":"category-region","9":"category-securities","10":"category-stocks","11":"category-text-articles","12":"category-traders-insight","13":"tag-magnificent-seven","14":"tag-market-outlook","15":"tag-stock-market","16":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.8) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The Fantastic Four Beats the Magnificent Seven<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Do we really need to be sticklers about whether the \u201cMagnificent Seven\u201d actually has seven components? I\u2019ll argue \u201cno\u201d, since the Mag 7 is at...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/203109\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Fantastic Four Beats the Magnificent Seven | IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Do we really need to be sticklers about whether the \u201cMagnificent Seven\u201d actually has seven components? 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