{"id":203003,"date":"2024-03-04T10:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-03-04T15:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=203003"},"modified":"2024-03-18T10:53:35","modified_gmt":"2024-03-18T14:53:35","slug":"weekly-market-recap-march-4-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/weekly-market-recap-march-4-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Weekly Market Recap: March 4, 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-week-in-review\">The week in review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>New home sales increased less than expected to 661k<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>PCE prices rose 0.3% m\/m, in line with the expectations<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Core PCE prices up 0.4% m\/m, slightly above consensus<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-week-ahead\">The week ahead<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Job openings<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Nonfarm payrolls<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Unemployment rate<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-thought-of-the-week\">Thought of the Week<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Given high short-term yields, many investors seeking income have recently piled into cash. Others, however, have been attracted to high yield (HY) bonds, given yields of close to 8% in a falling inflation, steady growth environment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">After two years of significant outflows, demand for HY has rebounded with January marking a third consecutive month of inflows. On the supply side, HY bond issuance also saw an uptick after hitting a decade low in 2022. However, demand pressures appear to be dominant, leading to a further 10bps compression of spreads year-to-date to 340bps. This spread reduction may also reflect a recent improvement in the quality of the HY index, with the bulk of bonds now rated BB and above. Moreover, near-term defaults should remain subdued as refinancing activity, which dominated the recent supply mix of HY bonds, has extended the maturities of most bonds well past 2027.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That being said, some companies rated CCC or NR are facing refinancing challenges amidst stiff rates, leading to above-average defaults in that sector and dampening the overall recovery rate. While this may not translate to a broader surge in defaults, at least in the short run, investors should recognize that spreads are priced for a perfect economic soft landing \u2013 they have only been tighter 5% of the time over the last quarter-century. Given the reinvestment risk of staying in cash, HY bonds present an attractive opportunity to lock in elevated yields. However, tight spreads and a wide dispersion in quality within the HY space point to the need for active management to achieve superior risk-adjusted returns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1013\" height=\"409\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/Screenshot-2024-03-04-095033.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-203004 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/Screenshot-2024-03-04-095033.png 1013w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/Screenshot-2024-03-04-095033-700x283.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/Screenshot-2024-03-04-095033-300x121.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/Screenshot-2024-03-04-095033-768x310.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1013px) 100vw, 1013px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1013px; aspect-ratio: 1013\/409;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"492\" height=\"86\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/Screenshot-2024-03-04-095053.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-203005 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/Screenshot-2024-03-04-095053.png 492w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/Screenshot-2024-03-04-095053-300x52.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 492px) 100vw, 492px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 492px; aspect-ratio: 492\/86;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u2014<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Originally Posted March 4, 2024 \u2013\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/am.jpmorgan.com\/us\/en\/asset-management\/adv\/insights\/market-insights\/market-updates\/weekly-market-recap\/\">Weekly Market Recap<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Past performance does not guarantee future results.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Diversification does not guarantee investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of financial market trends, which are based on current market conditions. We believe the information provided here is reliable, but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The views and strategies described may not be appropriate for all investors. This material has been prepared for informational purposes only, and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice. References to future returns are not promises or even estimates of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Market Insights program provides comprehensive data and commentary on global markets without reference to products. Designed as a tool to help clients understand the markets and support investment decision-making, the program explores the implications of current economic data and changing market conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The J.P. Morgan Asset Management Market Insights and Portfolio Insights programs, as non-independent research, have not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, nor are they subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature<br>or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from J.P. Morgan Asset Management or any of its subsidiaries to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professional, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">J.P. Morgan Asset Management is the brand for the asset management business of JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. and its affiliates worldwide.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Telephone calls and electronic communications may be monitored and\/or recorded.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Personal data will be collected, stored and processed by J.P. Morgan Asset Management in accordance with our privacy policies at https:\/\/www.jpmorgan.com\/privacy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This communication is issued in the United States, by J.P. Morgan Investment Management Inc. or J.P. Morgan Alternative Asset Management, Inc., both regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If you are a person with a disability and need additional support in viewing the material, please call us at 1-800-343-1113 for assistance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Copyright 2024 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><sup>\u00a9<\/sup>JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., February 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Unless otherwise stated, all data is as of March 4, 2024 or as of most recently available<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Tight spreads and a wide dispersion in quality within the HY space point to the need for active management to achieve superior risk-adjusted returns.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":186,"featured_media":203004,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[16773,2298],"contributors-categories":[13608],"class_list":["post-203003","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-hy-spreads","tag-market-recap","contributors-categories-j-p-morgan-asset-management"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.8) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Weekly Market Recap: March 4, 2024 | Traders&#039; 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