Consumer confidence fell this month as households reflected concern over the US political environment, rising prices and labor market opportunities. The Conference Board\u2019s Consumer Confidence Index dropped to 106.7 in February, following a three-month streak of gains. February\u2019s figure missed expectations of 115 by a mile and deteriorated from January\u2019s 110.9 level. The Present Situation and Expectations indices fell to 147.2 and 79.8 from 154.9 and 81.5 month-over-month (m\/m). Other consumer categories that deteriorated during the period included personal finances, business possibilities, plans for buying big-ticket items, the outlook for interest rates and rising recession odds. On the other hand, survey respondents were upbeat about stock prices while they lowered their 12-month inflation expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Durable goods orders slipped for the second consecutive month in January as airlines refrained from buying aircraft from Boeing, which has struggled with quality control. Orders dropped 6.1% m\/m, much worse than projections of 4.5% and December\u2019s 0.3% decline. Excluding transportation, however, orders declined only 0.3%. Passenger airline orders led the decline with a 58.9% m\/m fall while communication equipment dropped 8.4%. Other notable categories and their respective declines included the following:<\/p>\n\n\n\n Offsetting some of the pain were computer products, defense aircraft and electrical equipment which saw orders increase 5.8%, 2.6% and 0.9%. Machinery was unchanged. Nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft, a proxy for business investment, rose 0.1% m\/m, recovering from December\u2019s 0.6% decline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Across the Pacific in Tokyo, core consumer prices rose 3.5% versus the 3.3% forecast, opening the door for the Bank of Japan to shift interest rates into positive territory in March or April. Japan\u2019s yields and currency are rising in response to the expected hawkish shift by the nation\u2019s central bank. The change comes at a time when Japan is facing a combination of higher prices amidst recession. Investors are carefully assessing the situation for clues on how rising rates amidst negative growth impacts the global economy these days. A stronger yen is likely to cause some additional stress across global markets as it is a key currency for borrowing and pair trading due to its relative stability and low yields.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Recent earnings reports illustrate that companies are continuing to turn to tech firms for business productivity tools while consumers are holding off on do-it-yourself home improvements. In a related matter, strong travel demand is continuing. Consider the following earnings call highlights:<\/p>\n\n\n\n Stocks are bonds are relatively tame this session with some exceptions stemming from cryptocurrencies and small-caps as market participants await more clues on the path of monetary policy and inflation. Major US stock indices are mixed with the small-cap Russell 2000\u2019s 1.1% gain leading. Indeed, other indices appear maxed out, as the Dow Jones Industrial and S&P 500 indices are down 0.1% each while the Nasdaq Composite is near the flatline. Sector breadth is tilted positive with 7 out of 11 sectors higher led by utilities, consumer discretionary and communication services; they\u2019re up 1.3%, 0.6% and 0.2%. Energy, financials and consumer staples are lagging with declines of 0.5%, 0.3% and 0.2%. Bond yields and the dollar are near the flatline. The greenback is gaining relative to the euro, pound sterling and Canadian dollar while it sheds value versus the yen, franc, yuan and Aussie dollar. Energy markets are bullish as Red Sea disruptions persist and doubts over a potential Gaza ceasefire emerge. WTI crude oil is up 1.1%, or $0.88, to $78.42 a barrel. Players are definitely navigating cryptocurrency lands these days in search of further upside, with Bitcoin now at its highest level since 2021\u2019s mania. Bitcoin is up roughly 10% in the past seven days and 37% in the past 30 days. It is trading at $57,000 as investors appear exuberant.<\/p>\n\n\n\n![\"\"](\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/02\/Picture3-7.png\")
<\/figure>\n\n\n\nDurable Goods Orders Weaken on Boeing Problems<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
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![\"\"](\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/02\/Picture2-11.png\")
<\/figure>\n\n\n\nTokyo Likely Abandoning Negative Rates<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Corporations Embrace Tech as Consumers Splurge on Travel<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
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Crypto Continues to Surge<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
A Weakening Consumer Likely Leads to Stagflation<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
![\"\"](\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/02\/Picture1-24.png\")
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