{"id":202805,"date":"2024-02-27T10:30:00","date_gmt":"2024-02-27T15:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=202805"},"modified":"2024-02-28T12:28:58","modified_gmt":"2024-02-28T17:28:58","slug":"how-nvidia-became-the-new-apple","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/how-nvidia-became-the-new-apple\/","title":{"rendered":"How Nvidia Became the New Apple"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-weekly-commentary\">Weekly Commentary<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-market-recap\">Market Recap<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Equities hit fresh record highs this week in a number of markets from Europe to Japan.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>In North America, the rally was fuelled by a stellar earnings report by Nvidia on Wednesday, which sparked broader exuberance on the benefits of AI. Consumer staples and technology led the way, though gains in the S&amp;P 500 were broad-based among sectors.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The feeling was a bit more muted on the TSX (despite better economic data; see below), which eked out only a 0.7% advance on the week. Note that tech companies fell, perhaps as investors were lured by flashier names south of the border; that said, the sector remains well above its 200-day moving average.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-nvidia\">Nvidia<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Last week, Nvidia again topped earnings expectations, causing its stock to end the week near\u00a0 $800 per share. For investors, the question is: are there further gains to be found or is it time to take profits? As we\u2019ve said before, the thesis behind Nvidia is a long-term story\u2014their microchips are needed globally, across all sectors. Even if one industry were to falter, demand from other areas would still be there. That tells us that there is likely still room for them to deliver even better results. Think of Microsoft when they introduced Windows or Apple when they launched the iPhone: these were game-changers that led to years\u2014or even decades\u2014of solid growth. Nvidia is potentially on that path; in the booming A.I. (artificial intelligence) space, no one is in the same category as them. Eventually, competition will emerge and growth will have to slow down. There\u2019s also a case to be made that valuations have gotten stretched and that it\u2019s worth taking some profits to fund other buys. But the market\u2019s reaction to the company\u2019s latest announcement re-confirms that earnings matter, and if you believe in the A.I. story\u2014which we do\u2014then Nvidia is the name you may want to own.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Bottom Line:&nbsp;<\/strong>If you want to get into a space like A.I., you want to get in with the best products, and right now, that\u2019s Nvidia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-inflation\">Inflation<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Recently, the U.S. and Canadian inflation trajectories have diverged, with Canada now back within the Bank of Canada\u2019s (BoC) target range of 2-3% while U.S. inflation slowed less than expected in January and remains above 3%. This reflects the relative strength of the two economies: the U.S. economy\u2014and the American consumer\u2014is still strong, which makes it hard for inflation to come down. Supply chain setbacks, like recent ones in the Red Sea, have also caused the occasional inflation uptick. In Canada, conversely, the consumer is weakening faster, causing people to be more selective about how they spend. The market had previously expected more rate cuts from the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) than the BoC this year\u2014that now appears to have reversed. Our base case is still some easing from the Fed in the second half of the year, but we wouldn\u2019t be too surprised if the U.S. didn\u2019t get any rate cuts at all in 2024\u2014it\u2019s all data-dependent. The Fed likely doesn\u2019t want to cut too early, because that could lead to a start-and-stop situation, which could be confusing for markets. As a result, they may have to wait for more data before pivoting to a cutting phase. The BoC, meanwhile, have been a bit more hawkish than the Fed. Our hope is that they move before their American counterparts, because otherwise Canadian consumers will have a tougher time. But it remains to be seen if they\u2019re willing to take that leap.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Bottom Line:&nbsp;<\/strong>Inflation reflects the strength of the consumer\u2014that\u2019s why U.S. inflation has proven stickier than Canadian inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-housing\">Housing<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>In the last few months, we saw a bit of a bounce-back in both the U.S. and Canadian housing markets as mortgage rates came down. We believed this would be temporary, and that appears to be how it\u2019s playing out\u2014the Fed\u2019s announcement in November allowed mortgage rates to fall, providing some relief and causing activity to pick up, but that activity has now slowed. The U.S. market may rebound faster than the Canadian market due to a stronger economy and differences in the structure of mortgages south of the border. But we continue to see pressure on Canadian housing, especially if rate cuts don\u2019t come through soon. If the BoC does opt to decrease rates, however, Canada could start to rebound, especially with seasonal effects diminishing; in general, we don\u2019t typically see a lot of housing activity in the winter. It\u2019s possible there could be a divergence between the high-end and low-end markets, with some homeowners choosing to downsize in order to keep their monthly payments level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Bottom Line:&nbsp;<\/strong>The greatest damage to the housing market is likely behind us, but Canada has more fallout to contend with than the U.S.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-positioning\">Positioning<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Instead of asking why markets could fall, we think investors should be asking why markets will not go higher from here. It\u2019s not hard to find a good reason\u2014earnings from quality companies look good, the U.S. consumer is still relatively strong, and there\u2019s been no spike in unemployment. The only real negativity at present is around the timing of interest rate cuts\u2014but even if they don\u2019t come next month, they would likely only be deferred, not deleted. Momentum remains strong, and our intention is to stay the course.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For a detailed breakdown of our portfolio positioning, check out the latest BMO GAM House View Report, titled&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bmogam.com\/ca-en\/advisors\/insights\/the-american-exception-how-u-s-markets-beat-the-bears-again\/\"><em>The American Exception: How U.S. Markets Beat the Bears\u2026Again<\/em><\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Originally Posted February 26, 2024 &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bmogam.com\/ca-en\/advisors\/insights\/weekly-commentary-fab-26-how-nvidia-became-the-new-apple\/\">How Nvidia Became the New Apple<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Last week, Nvidia again topped earnings expectations, causing its stock to end the week near  $800 per share. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":919,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[264,12374,3598,2298,8235],"contributors-categories":[13733],"class_list":{"0":"post-202805","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-europe-middle-east-africa","7":"category-macro","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-region","10":"category-securities","11":"category-text-articles","12":"category-traders-insight","13":"tag-apple","14":"tag-market-commentary","15":"tag-market-outlook","16":"tag-market-recap","17":"tag-nvidia","18":"contributors-categories-bmo-exchange-traded-funds"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - 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