{"id":202727,"date":"2024-02-23T11:30:00","date_gmt":"2024-02-23T16:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=202727"},"modified":"2024-03-13T10:41:37","modified_gmt":"2024-03-13T14:41:37","slug":"dude-wheres-my-cuts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/dude-wheres-my-cuts\/","title":{"rendered":"Dude, Where’s My Cuts?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Who\u2019s nostalgic for the halcyon days when we expected six rate cuts this year?  I\u2019ll assert that Mr. Market isn\u2019t, since we\u2019ve managed to rally consistently even as hopes for the timing and number of cuts dissipated.  I had the privilege of discussing this topic during a television interview earlier this week (from this video\u2019s 16:40 mark<\/a>), and I though it would be useful to expand my thoughts in writing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Considering that one of the key elements that ignited the current rally was a hope that the Federal Reserve would aggressively cut rates, it is counterintuitive to see stocks rallying even as those hopes diminish.  We wrote in December<\/a> that there appeared to be a conundrum in the market\u2019s expectations.  Earnings expectations were based upon a decent economy, but expectations for rate cuts priced in economic weakness alongside a victory over inflation. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The markets always seemed to be well ahead of the Federal Reserve regarding cuts.  Ahead of the December FOMC meeting, when the Summary of Economic Projections, or \u201cdot plot\u201d indicated that the group\u2019s median estimate was for three 25 basis point cuts this year, futures were already pricing in between four and five.  After the meeting, traders seemed to think, \u201cGreat, we hear what you\u2019re saying about three cuts, which is terrific, so we\u2019ll anticipate six.\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the day after that meeting there was an 89% probability of a rate cut in March.  That\u2019s currently 2%.  Two full cuts, plus a 77% chance for a third were priced in for June.  We now see an 84% chance for cuts to begin in June.  The six cuts that were priced in for 2024 are now three.  Generally solid economic reports and somewhat disappointing inflationary data have led to those diminished assumptions.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

A steady stream of rhetoric from Fed talking heads also provided a dose of cold water.  Those began shortly after the December meeting \u2013 something we noted on December 20th<\/sup><\/a> \u2013 but investors only began to listen in earnest somewhat recently.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So why the muted reaction to the changes.  Solid earnings and economic reports have played a role, but neither have been overwhelmingly positive.  Except of course for a few exceptions \u2013 and one highly notable one.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yes, Nvidia (NVDA) and other key large-cap technology stocks are driving the bus.  It\u2019s hard to imagine them having a larger role on the market psyche than the Fed, but it seems to be the case.  NVDA has managed a truly remarkable streak of beating consensus estimates, raising guidance, and then beating the raised guidance.  That\u2019s essentially impossible to fight, and it\u2019s clear that traders have no stomach for attempting to fight it.  In the graph at the bottom, note the relationship between the S&P 500 (SPX) and NVDA over the past 20 days, during which NVDA is up over 30%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It’s NVDA\u2019s market, and we\u2019re all living in it.  Rate cuts are taking a back seat to AI-based enthusiasm, and the earnings gusher that at least some stocks are offering.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

20-Day Chart, NVDA (white) vs. SPX (yellow) <\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\"20-Day<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Who\u2019s nostalgic for the halcyon days when we expected six rate cuts this year? I\u2019ll assert that Mr. Market isn\u2019t, since we\u2019ve managed to rally consistently even as hopes for the timing and number of cuts dissipated. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":200131,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14700,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[2141,8235,4979],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-202727","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-market-insights","8":"category-macro","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"tag-fomc-meeting","15":"tag-nvidia","16":"tag-rate-cuts","17":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nDude, Where’s My Cuts? | Traders' Insight<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Who\u2019s nostalgic for the halcyon days when we expected six rate cuts this year? 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