{"id":202435,"date":"2024-02-14T11:15:00","date_gmt":"2024-02-14T16:15:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=202435"},"modified":"2024-02-15T03:33:23","modified_gmt":"2024-02-15T08:33:23","slug":"a-valentine-to-volatility","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/a-valentine-to-volatility\/","title":{"rendered":"A Valentine to Volatility"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Every so often we need a reminder that even the most bullish of markets is susceptible to pullbacks.&nbsp; We got one yesterday.&nbsp; The CPI report forced investors to reconsider an over-optimistic rate-cut narrative.&nbsp; And VIX woke up from its stupor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/wither-the-small-caps\/\">As we noted<\/a> yesterday morning, the proximate cause for the decline was a set of higher-than-expected CPI statistics, most notably monthly headline and core readings that were 0.1% above the consensus.&nbsp; By itself, a modestly higher reading in an inflation statistic that is not even the Federal Reserve\u2019s preferred measure (that\u2019s Core PCE, not CPI) should not have caused a significant reaction in a wide range of asset prices.&nbsp; However, the market persisted in expected more rate cuts than the Fed seemed willing to offer.&nbsp; That changed dramatically yesterday.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>After the December FOMC meeting, when Chair Powell acknowledged the likelihood for a \u201cpivot\u201d, which was bolstered by a \u201cdot plot\u201d that projected three rate cuts for 2024.&nbsp; Yet Fed Funds futures, which were already pricing in that number of cuts, almost immediately doubled those expectations.&nbsp; As we wrote in mid-January, in a piece entitled \u201c<a href=\"Clues%20to%20Solving%20the%20Markets\u2019%20Key%20Contradiction\">Clues to Solving the Markets\u2019 Key Contradiction<\/a>\u201d:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Let\u2019s examine the current situation.&nbsp; Fed Funds futures are pricing in at least six rate cuts for 2024, with a roughly 60% chance for a seventh by December.&nbsp; Meanwhile, according to&nbsp;<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/advantage.factset.com\/hubfs\/Website\/Resources%20Section\/Research%20Desk\/Earnings%20Insight\/EarningsInsight_011224.pdf\"><strong><em>a recent report by FactSet<\/em><\/strong><\/a><em>, analysts are projecting earnings growth of 11.8% and revenue growth of 5.5% for the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) for calendar year 2024.&nbsp; Ask yourself whether both predictions can simultaneously be true.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To be sure, rate cut expectations have been diminishing since the January 31<sup>st<\/sup> FOMC meeting.&nbsp; Prior to that meeting, there was a 43% chance for a 25bp cut in March, cuts fully priced in for May and June, and between five and six priced in for 2024.&nbsp; On Monday, those expectations had shrunk to 18% for March, 69% for May, a cut fully priced for Jun, and between four and five for the year.&nbsp; By this morning, although a cut remains priced in for June, the March and May expectations have dipped to 11% and 45% respectively, with just under four cuts priced in for 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While the jolts to the yield curve and major indices were quite notable yesterday, to my mind, the resurgence in the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) provided the most interesting reaction.&nbsp; As recently as Monday, VIX was trading below 13.&nbsp; At the time of peak declines yesterday, VIX flirted briefly with 18.&nbsp; This should provide a wake-up call to those who doubt the rationale or the efficacy of hedging.&nbsp; Even though VIX has pulled back from its panicky peak, the fact that it remains above 15 today tells us that institutional investors may have remembered that hedging is sometimes a desirable thing.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-vix-month-to-date-30-minute-candles\"><strong><em>VIX Month-to-date 30-Minute Candles<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"936\" height=\"538\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/02\/Picture2-7.png\" alt=\"VIX Month-to-date 30-Minute Candles\" class=\"wp-image-202438 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/02\/Picture2-7.png 936w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/02\/Picture2-7-700x402.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/02\/Picture2-7-300x172.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/02\/Picture2-7-768x441.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 936px) 100vw, 936px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 936px; aspect-ratio: 936\/538;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The chart above shows the sideways to downward moves in VIX that had prevailed so far this month \u2013 until yesterday.&nbsp; Meanwhile, the chart below shows that despite yesterday\u2019s damage, the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) remains solidly higher on a month-to-date basis.&nbsp; The index bounced off the 4920 level, where the last mini selloff ended, though an early rally today seems to be losing steam.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-spx-month-to-date-30-minute-candles\"><strong><em>SPX Month-to-date 30-Minute Candles<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"936\" height=\"538\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/02\/Picture1-15.png\" alt=\"SPX Month-to-date 30-Minute Candles\" class=\"wp-image-202437 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/02\/Picture1-15.png 936w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/02\/Picture1-15-700x402.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/02\/Picture1-15-300x172.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/02\/Picture1-15-768x441.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 936px) 100vw, 936px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 936px; aspect-ratio: 936\/538;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>With a monthly options expiration this week and <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/whos-zoomin-who-nvda-edition\/\">Nvidia earnings next week<\/a>, both of which can bring volatility (especially NVDA), it seems opportune to remember that volatility is no different than any other asset \u2013 buying low and selling high tends be a useful strategy.&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Every so often we need a reminder that even the most bullish of markets is susceptible to pullbacks.\u00a0 We got one yesterday.\u00a0 The CPI report forced investors to reconsider an over-optimistic rate-cut narrative.\u00a0 And VIX woke up from its stupor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":169769,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14700,18,8,9,26,3],"tags":[860],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-202435","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-market-insights","8":"category-macro","9":"category-region","10":"category-securities","11":"category-text-articles","12":"category-traders-insight","13":"tag-volatility","14":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>A Valentine to Volatility | Traders&#039; 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