{"id":202295,"date":"2024-02-12T10:45:00","date_gmt":"2024-02-12T15:45:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=202295"},"modified":"2024-03-13T10:42:13","modified_gmt":"2024-03-13T14:42:13","slug":"weekly-market-recap-february-12-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/weekly-market-recap-february-12-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Weekly Market Recap: February 12, 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-week-in-review\">The week in review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>ISM Services PMI rose to 53.4 from 50.5<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Initial jobless claims fell to 218K<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-week-ahead\">The week ahead<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>CPI<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Retail sales<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-thought-of-the-week\">Thought of the Week<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Inflation is often feared to be a self-fulfilling prophecy, as consumers and businesses that expect higher prices may inadvertently fuel inflationary pressures themselves. For example, consumers may ask for a raise or accelerate purchases to front-run rising prices, while businesses may hike prices in anticipation of higher input costs. To maintain price stability, the Federal Reserve closely monitors long-term inflation expectations and aims to keep them anchored at levels consistent with its inflation mandate. For investors, understanding the different measures of inflation expectations is critical for assessing the outlook for inflation and policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This week\u2019s chart tracks inflation expectations for the next five years from consumers, professional forecasters and financial markets. After spiking in 2022, inflation expectations have steadily trended back to normal. In fact, professional forecasters surveyed by the Philadelphia Fed and investors trading 5-year breakevens both expect annual CPI inflation of 2.3%, consistent with the Fed reaching and maintaining its 2% PCE inflation target through 2028. Consumers, likely burdened by negative headlines, have a more pessimistic outlook, as those surveyed by the University of Michigan anticipate annual inflation of 2.9%. However, not only have consumers\u2019 expectations historically settled above others, but also they move more slowly and rarely deviate from their long-term average, suggesting that financial markets and professionals may offer more valuable insights in real time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Despite geopolitical tensions and resilient economic activity, well-anchored inflation expectations should help keep inflation on its downward trend, opening the door for policy easing from the Fed later this year. Indeed, the January CPI report could show that the disinflationary momentum established in 2023 continued into 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1014\" height=\"409\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/02\/Screenshot-2024-02-12-102616.png\" alt=\"Inflation expectations, next 5 years\" class=\"wp-image-202296 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/02\/Screenshot-2024-02-12-102616.png 1014w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/02\/Screenshot-2024-02-12-102616-700x282.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/02\/Screenshot-2024-02-12-102616-300x121.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/02\/Screenshot-2024-02-12-102616-768x310.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1014px) 100vw, 1014px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1014px; aspect-ratio: 1014\/409;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"501\" height=\"150\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/02\/Screenshot-2024-02-12-102645.png\" alt=\"Chart of the week and thought of the week sources\" class=\"wp-image-202297 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/02\/Screenshot-2024-02-12-102645.png 501w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/02\/Screenshot-2024-02-12-102645-300x90.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 501px) 100vw, 501px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 501px; aspect-ratio: 501\/150;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u2014<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Originally Posted February 12, 2024 \u2013\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/am.jpmorgan.com\/us\/en\/asset-management\/adv\/insights\/market-insights\/market-updates\/weekly-market-recap\/\">Weekly Market Recap<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Past performance does not guarantee future results.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Diversification does not guarantee investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of financial market trends, which are based on current market conditions. We believe the information provided here is reliable, but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The views and strategies described may not be appropriate for all investors. This material has been prepared for informational purposes only, and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice. References to future returns are not promises or even estimates of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Market Insights program provides comprehensive data and commentary on global markets without reference to products. Designed as a tool to help clients understand the markets and support investment decision-making, the program explores the implications of current economic data and changing market conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The J.P. Morgan Asset Management Market Insights and Portfolio Insights programs, as non-independent research, have not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, nor are they subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature<br>or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from J.P. Morgan Asset Management or any of its subsidiaries to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professional, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">J.P. Morgan Asset Management is the brand for the asset management business of JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. and its affiliates worldwide.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Telephone calls and electronic communications may be monitored and\/or recorded.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Personal data will be collected, stored and processed by J.P. Morgan Asset Management in accordance with our privacy policies at https:\/\/www.jpmorgan.com\/privacy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This communication is issued in the United States, by J.P. Morgan Investment Management Inc. or J.P. Morgan Alternative Asset Management, Inc., both regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If you are a person with a disability and need additional support in viewing the material, please call us at 1-800-343-1113 for assistance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Copyright 2024 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><sup>\u00a9<\/sup>JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., February 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Unless otherwise stated, all data is as of February 12, 2024 or as of most recently available<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Despite geopolitical tensions and resilient economic activity, well anchored inflation expectations should help keep inflation on its downward trend.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":186,"featured_media":202296,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[217,1685,3598,2298,1546],"contributors-categories":[13608],"class_list":["post-202295","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-cpi","tag-macro","tag-market-outlook","tag-market-recap","tag-retail-sales","contributors-categories-j-p-morgan-asset-management"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ 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