{"id":201883,"date":"2024-02-01T08:31:36","date_gmt":"2024-02-01T13:31:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=201883"},"modified":"2024-02-01T08:42:48","modified_gmt":"2024-02-01T13:42:48","slug":"chart-advisor-qcom-bucking-the-blues","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/chart-advisor-qcom-bucking-the-blues\/","title":{"rendered":"Chart Advisor: QCOM Bucking the Blues"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>By Ryan Gorman, CFA, CMT, BFA<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>1\/ A Pop<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>2\/ A Flop<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>3\/ A Look at Rates<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Investopedia is partnering with CMT Association on this newsletter. \u00a0The contents of this newsletter are for informational and educational purposes only, however, and do not constitute investing advice. The guest authors, which may sell research to investors, and may trade or hold positions in securities mentioned herein do not represent the views of CMT Association or Investopedia. Please consult a financial advisor for investment recommendations and services.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-1-a-pop\">1\/ <strong>A Pop<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Market action on Wednesday was driven by some large tech earnings (think GOOGL and AMD) and later a fed that does not look eager to cut rates in March. However, QCOM bucked that trend, closing up over 1%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>After a failed breakout in December, there was a solid breakout in January that has tested support along with the 20-day moving average. Elder bar is still blue, but after hours the stock was up another 2%. If that carries over, I would expect this to change.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"648\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/02\/Image-1-1100x648.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-201884 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/02\/Image-1-1100x648.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/02\/Image-1-700x413.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/02\/Image-1-300x177.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/02\/Image-1-768x453.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/02\/Image-1.png 1430w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/648;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>After being largely range bound all 2023, something changed with the Pring special K indicator. This is a very long-term momentum indicator that in this case broke the downtrend and offered some favorable evidence that an upside breakout could occur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Read more here:\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/school.stockcharts.com\/doku.php?id=technical_indicators:pring_s_special_k&amp;hid=52e0514b725a58fa5560211dfc847e5115778175&amp;did=11804806-20240201&amp;utm_campaign=chart-advisor_newsletter&amp;utm_source=investopedia&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_content=020124\">Martin Pring&#8217;s Special K [ChartSchool] (stockcharts.com)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-2-a-flop\">2\/ <strong>A Flop<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>After a few regional banks failed last March, the Federal Reserve set up a facility to shore up liquidity. Many regional banks have gone to previous and even new highs. One that struggled today was New York Community Bancorp. They announced an unexpected loss on an increase to loan loss provisions up to $550 or so million. About 10 times what the street was expecting, they even cut their dividend. This caused a quick move back to the March lows.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"720\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/02\/Image-2-1100x720.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-201885 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/02\/Image-2-1100x720.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/02\/Image-2-700x458.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/02\/Image-2-300x196.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/02\/Image-2-768x503.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/02\/Image-2.png 1430w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/720;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>After a strong recovery from the March low, the Special K broke its downtrend. Largely NYCB remained stagnant until today. No indicator is perfect, investing and trading is a lot about probabilities. Whatever your investment philosophy, Trend, Value, etc, it pays to stick to your rules. Even if a stock you don\u2019t own goes up, better to be consistent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-3-a-look-at-rates\">3\/ <strong>A Look at Rates<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The federal reserve held the Fed Funds rate steady today between 5.25-5.5%. The longer part of the curve remains below this, a so call inverted yield curve. In fact the 10 year went back under 4% today.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Historically the yield curve has been a solid predictor of recessions. Something has to get the short end back below the long end. Much of the rally in stocks could be attributed to Powell\u2019s speech in fall where he indicated hiking was done and the next move was likely a cut. The fed\u2019s internal forecast was for 3 cuts. There is no rule on the magnitude, but it is often in 0.25% increments, so 0.75%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"798\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/02\/Image-3-1100x798.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-201886 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/02\/Image-3-1100x798.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/02\/Image-3-700x508.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/02\/Image-3-300x218.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/02\/Image-3-768x557.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/02\/Image-3.png 1430w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/798;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The momentum seems to still favor a rally in longer term bonds. When bond prices rise, yields fall. The market continues to believe the fed may be forced more aggressively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Originally posted 1st February 2024<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Historically the yield curve has been a solid predictor of recessions. Something has to get the short end back below the long end. Much of the rally in stocks could be attributed to Powell\u2019s speech in fall where he indicated hiking was done and the next move was likely a cut. The fed\u2019s internal forecast was for 3 cuts. There is no rule on the magnitude, but it is often in 0.25% increments, so 0.75%.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":186,"featured_media":201887,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14,15,18,6,9,22,23,26,3],"tags":[1544,567,748,980],"contributors-categories":[13686],"class_list":{"0":"post-201883","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-etfs","8":"category-fixed-income","9":"category-macro","10":"category-north-america","11":"category-securities","12":"category-stocks","13":"category-technical-analysis","14":"category-text-articles","15":"category-traders-insight","16":"tag-amd","17":"tag-googl","18":"tag-nyse","19":"tag-qcom","20":"contributors-categories-investopedia"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Chart Advisor: QCOM Bucking the Blues | Traders&#039; Insight<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Historically the yield curve has been a solid predictor of recessions. 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