{"id":201850,"date":"2024-02-01T09:45:00","date_gmt":"2024-02-01T14:45:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=201850"},"modified":"2024-02-01T12:22:49","modified_gmt":"2024-02-01T17:22:49","slug":"is-the-end-well-nigh-for-quantitative-tightening","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/is-the-end-well-nigh-for-quantitative-tightening\/","title":{"rendered":"Is the End Well-Nigh for Quantitative Tightening?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

By: Simona M Mocuta, Todd N Bean, CFA, Jay L Ladieu<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

During the pandemic, the Fed resumed its quantitative easing (QE) program. As economic conditions normalized, it turned to quantitative tightening (QT) in the summer of 2022. What are the implications of the upcoming winding down\u2014or tapering\u2014of QT?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Having peaked at US$9.0 trillion in April 2022, the US Fed\u2019s balance sheet stood at US$7.8 trillion last December. This is still double the level that prevailed in the summer of 2019, suggesting there is a long way to go before the balance sheet normalizes. Why then is the Fed considering slowing the pace of run-offs? We outline the rationale and investment implications below.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There are two key elements to the balance sheet policy discussion:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  1. The desired end point of QT<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  2. The desired path \u2013 speed of QT and final balance sheet composition<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    The Desired End Point of QT<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    Multiple indicators suggest there remains excess liquidity in the financial system. For one, the reverse repo facility still holds about US$600 billion \u2013 a normal state would see that balance back to zero. Secondly, bank reserves as a share of nominal GDP remain at healthy levels even though they have moderated noticeably from the pandemic-era records (Figure 1).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"Fed's<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    At the same time, while the Fed\u2019s intent is to eliminate excess reserves, the desire is to maintain an ample reserves environment. There are no clear-cut estimates for what that level actually is, but\u2014just as Chair Jerome Powell stated about the neutral policy rate\u2014it, too, can be known \u201cby its works<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    While an unusual confluence of factors resulted in the acute stress episode experienced in the repo market in 2019, one interpretation is that by that point reserves likely had become scarce. In the summer of 2019, bank reserves had fallen to below 7% of nominal GDP. All else being equal, one could argue that a cushion of 1-2 percentage points may therefore identify the lower estimate of an ample reserve environment (Figure 2).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"SOFR<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    Some Important Differences Compared With 2019<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

    There are some important differences between where the economy stands today versus where it was back in 2019. For one, following the aggressive monetary tightening cycle, US banks today sit on massive unrealized losses linked to their fixed income portfolios. A more conservative balance sheet management and an increased preference for reserves may be the net result (Figure 3).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"US<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    Click here to read the full article<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    —<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Originally Posted January 31, 2024 – Is the End Well-Nigh for Quantitative Tightening?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Disclosure<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Marketing Communication<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    State Street Global Advisors Worldwide Entities<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The whole or any part of this work may not be reproduced, copied or transmitted or any of its contents disclosed to third parties without State Street Global Advisors\u2019 express written consent.

    The views expressed in this material are the views of Simona Mocuta, Todd Bean and Jay Ladieu through the period ended 30 January 2024 and are subject to change based on market and other conditions.

    This document contains certain statements that may be deemed forward looking statements. Please note that any such statements are not guarantees of any future performance and actual results or developments may differ materially from those projected.

    The information provided does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your tax and financial advisor.

    All information is from State Street Global Advisors unless otherwise noted and has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed.\u202f There is no representation or warranty as to the current accuracy, reliability or completeness of, nor liability for, decisions based on such information and it should not be relied on as such.

    Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Investing involves risk including the risk of loss of principal.

    The trademarks and service marks referenced herein are the property of their respective owners. Third party data providers make no warranties or representations of any kind relating to the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the data and have no liability for damages of any kind relating to the use of such data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Generally, among asset classes, stocks are more volatile than bonds or short-term instruments. Government bonds and corporate bonds generally have more moderate short-term price fluctuations than stocks, but provide lower potential long-term returns. U.S. Treasury Bills maintain a stable value if held to maturity, but returns are generally only slightly above the inflation rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Investments in asset backed and mortgage backed securities are subject to prepayment risk which can limit the potential for gain during a declining interest rate environment and increases the potential for loss in a rising interest rate environment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    For EMEA Distribution: The information contained in this communication is not a research recommendation or \u2018investment research\u2019 and is classified as a \u2018Marketing Communication\u2019 in accordance with the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (2014\/65\/EU) or applicable Swiss regulation. This means that this marketing communication (a) has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research (b) is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \u00a9<\/sup> 2024 State Street Corporation \u2013 All rights reserved.
    6304075.1.1.GBL.RTL
    Expiration Date: 31\/01\/2025<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    As economic conditions normalized, it turned to quantitative tightening (QT) in the summer of 2022. 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