{"id":201636,"date":"2024-01-26T08:37:13","date_gmt":"2024-01-26T13:37:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=201636"},"modified":"2024-01-26T10:37:04","modified_gmt":"2024-01-26T15:37:04","slug":"chart-advisor-deconstructing-electric-investments","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/chart-advisor-deconstructing-electric-investments\/","title":{"rendered":"Chart Advisor: Deconstructing Electric Investments"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>By\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/links.investopedia.com\/u\/click?_t=36ba8fa8372241d58b3bfc06997a4332&amp;_m=5b6d67c007f14d81bca8c1d5ea2de7e6&amp;_e=4_jaw_BfuoI_uYh50S2dfyhPtiqngEFy4OT0Ot2v_LDG1tdYWvagxGs9o2Amrv3VpWo_6Ctb72SKI_K1i2-JsCt9KaWyowJ09eiNbSL8ZW16M_N2tPhUp1hJNkzOdjtQ3xAIr_eIHFTAxm3EJpQMr4PEPFCEanxbaIC2rO3XvVGZOthXSEZ5c7MiPR5437VO2X2lf2hCaWjonBXow8BaP93PY6UYu2TiqOYdenoCy2Y7qs46iQCw-9m69ij3vOvORT-rKfASrJn5GFMAAdgA_BwO52pEB-EUgujWWI-FkmV20QMZNUZLqF9T_2V2YIK-EynXPaas4QjzDywHbophdA0nWZ83pEbLL565MiXEWDhzpf6ksnfWTRMP9gm6bxjdg5blgTM7v7betjrY0Ey3lsCSpvaeLYJdf_dPtSMLpwm1xNnjQToDHFylLqCbwPHfbtJ2vvJa49ERP_ZAgmoTBg%3D%3D\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">David Cox, CMT, CFA, FCSI, FMA<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/links.investopedia.com\/u\/click?_t=36ba8fa8372241d58b3bfc06997a4332&amp;_m=5b6d67c007f14d81bca8c1d5ea2de7e6&amp;_e=4_jaw_BfuoI_uYh50S2dfyhPtiqngEFy4OT0Ot2v_LBm8pFXY-QTzkbs5ijt5AWV4rHqB_Tad7LG8C9jRx907rNFUPJE0BtkqYgajGWsx9hDyk0DNHYw70AF9kZNg6CEiRtlEHSsgZ57yAv3Ds6FC1i0Qu5_f-PqK3rnQpsirlYgPbcsA84tlggbBjteGzaXZ9Y-PL2Ypt7TE7xkqoBHDkerC4t98xdq-65vrdOJtq5dHa_Dd5AnmdNJFe2rVUmHTWGFjHPY_KwLMTPnRYpbL0B8ltJF21rh5pP2FJX-VnddJ7DUZbdcGkT4o3CI_2cl9bOp1XCXd5QjOqgktpxpEmXuGuaFkgMQUEE9CPYY4we2Ynx5qGtJxvuOmg_4dLBgxzjDF87Ns416gGk-_DAq9S6bokXG9eHwnRTlUsBYgrGW8VUFjtJxbLOXF_YWeQPyH08j9DyMI0phmePeiN3U48lL79M4h1JQOXqYWZ41MGA%3D\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Conor White CMT, CIM<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>1\/ Electric Cars Are Our Future<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>2\/ Argentina \u2013 It\u2019s Time?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>3\/ 10-Year Yields<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>4\/ S&amp;P 500 \u2013 What\u2019s the Breadth?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>5\/ U.S. Mid-Caps<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Investopedia is partnering with CMT Association on this newsletter. \u00a0The contents of this newsletter are for informational and educational purposes only, however, and do not constitute investing advice. The guest authors, which may sell research to investors, and may trade or hold positions in securities mentioned herein do not represent the views of CMT Association or Investopedia. Please consult a financial advisor for investment recommendations and services.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-1-electric-cars-are-our-future\">1\/ <strong>Electric Cars Are Our Future<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Although governments around the world are mandating (aka forcing) everyone to plan to buy electric cars, investors aren\u2019t excited right now.\u00a0 A cursory read of the headlines (fundamentals) tells me that consumers aren\u2019t buying the inventory and it\u2019s been a cost hole for many manufacturers, especially big ones like Ford and General Motors.\u00a0 Here\u2019s an equal weighted composite of nine stocks and it\u2019s currently -80.8% below the 2021 highs and in a clear downtrend.\u00a0 Last summer, the group tried to move higher (green circle), but that move has since failed.\u00a0 Charts are charts, whether you like your electric car or not (or plan to get one), be careful and accept that great ideas don\u2019t necessarily mean great investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/01\/1-30-1100x562.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-201637 lazyload\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/562;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-2-argentina-it-s-time\">2\/ <strong>Argentina \u2013 It\u2019s Time?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The Argentinian stock market has been soaring for years (+it\u2019s 34.6% already YTD in \u201924).\u00a0 An excellent example of the inflationary characteristics of stocks with the only way to combat soaring triple digit inflation is to own assets like stocks, although stocks aren\u2019t on the balance sheets of many Argentinians (I suspect).\u00a0 This of course is the issue, whereby inflation, money printing and reckless government spending harm the low-middle class who is priced out of their life, while the wealthy benefit through asset price inflation (hint: this is happening in the U.S. and Canada too).\u00a0 Since the recent electoral change, currency and central bank plans are being changed and the Global X Argentina (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.globalxetfs.com\/funds\/argt\/?hid=52e0514b725a58fa5560211dfc847e5115778175&amp;did=11740055-20240126&amp;utm_campaign=chart-advisor_newsletter&amp;utm_source=investopedia&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_content=012624\">$ARGT<\/a>), the ETF available to U.S. investors, is sporting a different look.\u00a0 Certainly not the smooth and soaring ride that the local Merval stock market has been (left panel), but a post-election gap up and S&amp;P 500 relative outperformance for the past year for $ARGT tells me we shouldn\u2019t just scoff at what is happening.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/01\/2-17-1100x564.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-201638 lazyload\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/564;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-3-10-year-yields\">3\/ <strong>10-Year Yields<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Analysts and economists failed to forecast the significant rise in yields and yet now, we hear them tell us that rates are going to come back down and they\u2019re certain.\u00a0 Here\u2019s the chart of U.S. 10-year U.S. yields.\u00a0 It looks like consolidation to me after a strong rally.\u00a0 I like to use the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/terms\/m\/macd.asp?hid=52e0514b725a58fa5560211dfc847e5115778175&amp;did=11740055-20240126&amp;utm_campaign=chart-advisor_newsletter&amp;utm_source=investopedia&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_content=012624\">Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)<\/a>\u00a0histogram to point in the direction to lean from an investment and expectation standpoint.\u00a0 What does the histogram show?\u00a0 Most investors (that are familiar with the MACD) would use the signal line itself as the tool, but the difference between the two MACD lines can be viewed in histogram form (as below), and essentially provide a means of gauging if the short-term trend is moving faster or slower than the longer-term trend.\u00a0 The weekly histogram has been ticking upwards for several weeks now, and continues to do so.\u00a0 This helps me gauge and set my own expectations and certainly means piling into bonds is not on our current action list (since yields are inversely related to bond prices).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/01\/3-17-1100x568.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-201639 lazyload\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/568;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-4-s-amp-p-500-what-s-the-breadth\">4\/ <strong>S&amp;P 500 \u2013 What\u2019s the Breadth?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>I think we can get far more information than we can by looking at a price index, if we seek to understand how many stocks are participating in the strength (or weakness) of a price move.\u00a0 It\u2019s called\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/terms\/m\/market_breadth.asp?hid=52e0514b725a58fa5560211dfc847e5115778175&amp;did=11740055-20240126&amp;utm_campaign=chart-advisor_newsletter&amp;utm_source=investopedia&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_content=012624\">market breadth<\/a>.\u00a0 The S&amp;P 500 contains 500 companies, and we can see in the chart below that 70.6% of those stocks are above a 50-day moving average and 67.2% of them are above a 200-day moving average.\u00a0 A lot of technicians would say that approximately 60% is a useful line in the sand demarking health of a market.\u00a0 What I\u2019m pointing out here in the short-term, is that we\u2019re seeing some bearish\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/terms\/d\/divergence.asp?hid=52e0514b725a58fa5560211dfc847e5115778175&amp;did=11740055-20240126&amp;utm_campaign=chart-advisor_newsletter&amp;utm_source=investopedia&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_content=012624\">divergence<\/a>, meaning fewer stocks are above those moving averages (starting to fall) while the market is going up anyways.\u00a0 It\u2019s not a big-picture problem (at all), but it\u2019s simply telling us that the stock market is extended.\u00a0 I know full well that many investors are (always!) unwilling to buy the dips, and the pullbacks, and instead find themselves chasing extended markets, and then see some weakness set in shortly afterwards.\u00a0 You don\u2019t get to be surprised if profit-taking arrives in the near-term.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/01\/4-13-1100x568.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-201640 lazyload\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/568;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-5-u-s-mid-caps\">5\/ <strong>U.S. Mid-Caps<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The stock market since the late \u201922 lows has been a large-cap story, but here again, we are seeing the potential of more stocks considering participating in the bull market.\u00a0 The SPDR S&amp;P Midcap ETF (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ssga.com\/us\/en\/intermediary\/etfs\/funds\/spdr-sp-midcap-400-etf-trust-mdy?hid=52e0514b725a58fa5560211dfc847e5115778175&amp;did=11740055-20240126&amp;utm_campaign=chart-advisor_newsletter&amp;utm_source=investopedia&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_content=012624\">$MDY<\/a>) is currently sitting above the early and mid\u201923 high points (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/terms\/r\/resistance.asp?hid=52e0514b725a58fa5560211dfc847e5115778175&amp;did=11740055-20240126&amp;utm_campaign=chart-advisor_newsletter&amp;utm_source=investopedia&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_content=012624\">resistance<\/a>), which one could now call\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/terms\/s\/support.asp?hid=52e0514b725a58fa5560211dfc847e5115778175&amp;did=11740055-20240126&amp;utm_campaign=chart-advisor_newsletter&amp;utm_source=investopedia&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_content=012624\">support<\/a>\u00a0(horizontal line).\u00a0 Having gapped up above that line, fallen below again (a\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/terms\/f\/failedbreak.asp?hid=52e0514b725a58fa5560211dfc847e5115778175&amp;did=11740055-20240126&amp;utm_campaign=chart-advisor_newsletter&amp;utm_source=investopedia&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_content=012624\">failed breakout<\/a>) and then recovering so quickly, is constructive price action.\u00a0 Let\u2019s watch carefully to see if mid-caps can now exceed those recent highs and print some higher highs and with it, perhaps some relative outperformance vs. large-caps.\u00a0 But let\u2019s not get ahead of ourselves.\u00a0 This has been a weak area of the market, and it needs to prove itself before it really deserves our attention (or at least capital), especially at the index level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/01\/5-7-1100x561.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-201641 lazyload\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/561;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Originally posted 26th January 2024<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The stock market since the late \u201922 lows has been a large-cap story, but here again, we are seeing the potential of more stocks considering participating in the bull market.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":186,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14,15,18,6,9,1031,22,23,26],"tags":[1351,187,7530],"contributors-categories":[13686],"class_list":{"0":"post-201636","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-etfs","7":"category-fixed-income","8":"category-macro","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-securities","11":"category-south-america","12":"category-stocks","13":"category-technical-analysis","14":"category-text-articles","15":"tag-argt","16":"tag-macd","17":"tag-mdy","18":"contributors-categories-investopedia"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - 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