{"id":201510,"date":"2024-01-24T08:04:49","date_gmt":"2024-01-24T13:04:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=201510"},"modified":"2024-01-24T13:53:29","modified_gmt":"2024-01-24T18:53:29","slug":"chart-advisor-detecting-conspicuous-price","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/chart-advisor-detecting-conspicuous-price\/","title":{"rendered":"Chart Advisor: Detecting Conspicuous Price"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

By\u00a0David Cox, CMT, CFA, FCSI, FMA<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0Conor White CMT, CIM<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

1\/ What\u2019s Happening in China?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

2\/ Bitcoin is Falling(!)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

3\/ Energy & Technology<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

4\/ No, It\u2019s Not All Technology<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

5\/ What\u2019s the Trend?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investopedia is partnering with CMT Association on this newsletter. \u00a0The contents of this newsletter are for informational and educational purposes only, however, and do not constitute investing advice. The guest authors, which may sell research to investors, and may trade or hold positions in securities mentioned herein do not represent the views of CMT Association or Investopedia. Please consult a financial advisor for investment recommendations and services.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

1\/ What\u2019s Happening in China?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Stocks in Shanghai<\/a>\u00a0are heading down and that is not my opinion, it\u2019s price.\u00a0 The weekly chart has lower highs and lower lows and appears to be heading en route to levels seen during #COVID selloff lows as a possible level of\u00a0support<\/a>\u00a0on the chart.\u00a0 Why argue with price?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

2\/ Bitcoin is Falling(!)<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Amidst great enthusiasm and headlines that dominated the market about recent\u00a0Exchange Traded Fund (ETF)<\/a>\u00a0approvals, the newest investors, who waited for the new ETFs to be launched entered right before a correction in the price.\u00a0 Bitcoin #BTC is down about -20% since the launch, but what does the daily chart show?\u00a0 After the most recent mid-\u201923 consolidation (that occurred after a strong early \u201923 run-up), Bitcoin broke through $30,000 USD with fervour and ran all the way up to touch $49,000 after the approvals.\u00a0 The daily chart smooths out the swings and the headlines and looks like an uptrend to me.\u00a0 I\u2019m a big fan of using the\u00a0Relative Strength Index (RSI)<\/a>\u00a0and we\u2019re quite oversold on an RSI(5) basis (green circles).\u00a0\u00a0Oversold<\/a>\u00a0is not some green light, or infallible tool that justifies decision-making or action.\u00a0 Oscillators are useful, but an understanding of trend must be first be known.\u00a0 I\u2019m a fan of buying oversold pullbacks in uptrends.\u00a0 But buying oversold pullbacks in downtrends isn\u2019t the same strategy.\u00a0 Not at all.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

3\/ Energy & Technology<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Technology has without question been beastly in performance since the \u201922 stock market bottom and if we compare returns even in recent months since the fall \u201923 correction lows, one will find technology continues to impress investors, who appear willing to pay higher and higher prices for the stocks within.\u00a0 On the left side, we can see the\u00a0SPDR Energy ($XLE)<\/a>\u00a0stocks in the past several months in a lower highs and lower lows downtrend and technology of course, looks like the polar opposite.\u00a0 I always say, I really don\u2019t care what the narrative says, but I do care about price.\u00a0 If we stand in the way of strong downtrends, we can get hurt both financially and mentally.\u00a0\u00a0Trend following<\/a>\u00a0really does work, but it\u2019s not always easy.\u00a0 Emotions make it difficult to want to buy something that has risen in price to establish a strong price trend without you.\u00a0 The feeling that you\u2019ve missed the boat is easy to experience.\u00a0 But trends can continue for longer than we\u2019d might otherwise think likely.\u00a0 So seek to get better at identifying them, both uptrends and downtrends.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

4\/ No, It\u2019s Not All Technology<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

There are some investors intent on calling out technology as the only game in town, even using it as a rationale to explain that the stock market makes no sense, that it\u2019s a bubble and it can\u2019t go on.\u00a0 Another strong trend, is the U.S. homebuilder stocks ($ITB<\/a>) which touched new highs again this week.\u00a0 This industry group is in the consumer discretionary sector and the group is a strong one.\u00a0 It also happens to be one of the few areas that bottomed ahead of the market in 2022 (hint: these are good characteristics to watch for in markets).\u00a0 Early leading groups (and stocks) can give investors a leg up in setting expectations in markets. Either way, the builders have been very strong and are in long-term uptrends.\u00a0 So it\u2019s certainly one other area that trend followers know is out there, and outside of the dominating technology force.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

5\/ What\u2019s the Trend?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Those of you that follow me on \u201cX\u201d, or watch my Friday #WhereDoWeStand webinar (email\u00a0david.cox@raymondjames.ca<\/a>\u00a0to subscribe) have seen my regular tables, like this one, that shows us the trend on a variety of time frames.\u00a0 Here\u2019s our \u201call asset\u201d list, sorted by YTD returns (in \u201924) and the short, intermediate and long-term trends of each asset.\u00a0 But how do we define trends?\u00a0 One way is to use the condition of two\u00a0moving averages<\/a>, on a given time frame.\u00a0 If the shorter-term average is above the longer-term average, it\u2019s an uptrend and vice versa.\u00a0 We define the short-term trend using the 8\/20-day exponential moving averages (EMA).\u00a0 If the 8EMA > 20EMA, it says \u201cTrue\u201d, and suggests an uptrend.\u00a0 The intermediate-term is based on the 20-day EMA and the 50-day SMA, and the longer-term average uses the 13 and 34-week EMAs.\u00a0 You may disagree with my time frames, but the technique can be applied to whatever time, or chart frequency that fits with your objectives and your beliefs.\u00a0 Take the time to study the information.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

—<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Originally posted 24th January 2024<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Technology has without question been beastly in performance since the \u201922 stock market bottom and if we compare returns even in recent months since the fall \u201923 correction lows, one will find technology continues to impress investors, who appear willing to pay higher and higher prices for the stocks 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