{"id":201206,"date":"2024-01-17T13:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-01-17T18:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=201206"},"modified":"2024-01-18T13:06:35","modified_gmt":"2024-01-18T18:06:35","slug":"its-nvda-and-everything-else","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/its-nvda-and-everything-else\/","title":{"rendered":"It&#8217;s NVDA and Everything Else"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Yesterday I made an offhanded comment to someone that the market had become Nvidia (NVDA) and everything else.&nbsp; The statement was intended as flippant and hyperbolic, but it turns out to have a reasonable basis in practice \u2013 at least over the past few days.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At that point in the afternoon the NASDAQ 100 (NDX) and the NASDAQ Composite (COMP) indices were essentially unchanged despite a significant majority of the stocks on that exchange trading lower.&nbsp; On yesterday\u2019s session, NDX closed -0.01% lower and COMP closed -0.19% lower even as declining stocks outpaced advancers by a 3,143 to 1,159 margin.&nbsp; At the same time, NVDA closed +3.06% for yet another record high \u2013 it\u2019s fourth in six sessions.&nbsp; Even though NDX has not surpassed the record high that it set three weeks ago, it\u2019s certainly not NVDA\u2019s fault \u2013 the stock is up over 13% year-to-date!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yet the following chart shows that over the past five days, NVDA has exerted something of a gravitational pull on NDX and COMP:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-5-day-chart-ndx-2-minute-red-green-candles-comp-blue-line-nvda-purple-line\"><strong><em>5-Day Chart, NDX (2-Minute, red\/green candles), COMP (blue line), NVDA (purple line)<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"649\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/01\/Picture3-3-1100x649.png\" alt=\"5-Day Chart, NDX (2-Minute, red\/green candles), COMP (blue line), NVDA (purple line)\" class=\"wp-image-201209 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/01\/Picture3-3-1100x649.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/01\/Picture3-3-700x413.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/01\/Picture3-3-300x177.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/01\/Picture3-3-768x453.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/01\/Picture3-3-1536x906.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/01\/Picture3-3-2048x1208.png 2048w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/649;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There are a couple of things to note in the graph.&nbsp; First is how much more volatile NVDA is than NDX.&nbsp; That of course stands to reason.&nbsp; An individual stock should be more volatile than an index that contains it.&nbsp; But it is clear that the general intraday patterns for the indices roughly follow that of NVDA, despite the fact that NVDA only represents just over 4% of NDX.&nbsp; It\u2019s psychological impact upon the indices far outweighs its expected impact.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The second thing to note is the continued tight relationship between COMP and NDX.&nbsp; That\u2019s a matter of weighting.&nbsp; The stocks in NDX have a very heavy weight in COMP, while the top 10 stocks in NDX represent about 40% of that index.&nbsp; Yet it is apparent that that NDX has slightly outperformed COMP over the brief time period shown above.&nbsp; When we look at the comparison between those two indices on a long-term basis, the recent outperformance of NDX is readily apparent:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-3-year-chart-ndx-red-green-candles-comp-blue-line\"><strong><em>3-Year Chart, NDX (red\/green candles), COMP (blue line)<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"649\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/01\/Picture4-1-1100x649.png\" alt=\"3-Year Chart, NDX (red\/green candles), COMP (blue line)\" class=\"wp-image-201210 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/01\/Picture4-1-1100x649.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/01\/Picture4-1-700x413.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/01\/Picture4-1-300x177.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/01\/Picture4-1-768x453.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/01\/Picture4-1-1536x906.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/01\/Picture4-1-2048x1208.png 2048w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/649;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-20-year-chart-ndx-red-green-candles-comp-blue-line\"><strong><em>20-Year Chart, NDX (red\/green candles), COMP (blue line)<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"649\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/01\/Picture5-1-1100x649.png\" alt=\"20-Year Chart, NDX (red\/green candles), COMP (blue line)\" class=\"wp-image-201211 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/01\/Picture5-1-1100x649.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/01\/Picture5-1-700x413.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/01\/Picture5-1-300x177.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/01\/Picture5-1-768x453.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/01\/Picture5-1-1536x906.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/01\/Picture5-1-2048x1208.png 2048w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/649;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It is evident that since markets emerged from the Global Financial Crisis in 2009, NDX has been steadily outpacing COMP.&nbsp; The explanation is not particulary difficult.&nbsp; The low interest rate environment that has prevailed since then has favored growth stocks over value stocks while we have also seen the market\u2019s leading technology stocks solidify their dominance.&nbsp; While this concept was reinforced in the post-Covid era, it is useful to note that the spread between the two indices has never been wider.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>One might be tempted to think that two indices that correlate so closely (R-squared values over the past 20 years have ranged between 0.97 and 0.985)&nbsp; would inevitably experience some mean reversion.&nbsp; I don\u2019t doubt that coule be the case, but if one were willing to put on a trade to that effect, there are important risk management considerations.&nbsp; Importantly, just because things can, and maybe should, revert to their long term averages, there is no reason to expect that they actually will.&nbsp; Heck, you could have put on this trade two months ago on this basis, only to see the spread widen.&nbsp; A trade that would involve favoring COMP over NDX would need a solid rationale.&nbsp; Perhaps an opinion that the market\u2019s love of big-cap technology is overblown, or that a more lasting shift from growth to value is underway.&nbsp;&nbsp; Neither opinion is truly implausible.&nbsp; But as long as NDX remains a captive of NVDA, that type of trade requires tight stops and risk discipline.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Yesterday I made an offhanded comment to someone that the market had become Nvidia (NVDA) and everything else.  The statement was intended as flippant and hyperbolic, but it turns out to have a reasonable basis in practice &#8211; at least over the past few days.  <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":201212,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14700,6,8,9,22,26,3],"tags":[8235,4109],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-201206","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-market-insights","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-region","10":"category-securities","11":"category-stocks","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"tag-nvidia","15":"tag-stock-market","16":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>It&#8217;s NVDA and Everything Else | Traders&#039; Insight<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Yesterday I made an offhanded comment to someone that the market had become Nvidia (NVDA) and everything else. 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