{"id":201124,"date":"2024-01-16T10:45:00","date_gmt":"2024-01-16T15:45:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=201124"},"modified":"2024-01-16T13:15:14","modified_gmt":"2024-01-16T18:15:14","slug":"high-oil-prices-can-jeopardize-a-us-soft-landing","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/commodities\/high-oil-prices-can-jeopardize-a-us-soft-landing\/","title":{"rendered":"High Oil Prices Can Jeopardize a US Soft Landing"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>Oil prices jumped higher on Friday after US and UK attacked Houthi rebels. Analysts think further escalation in the conflict may propel Brent above $80.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Oil prices spiked on Friday after the US and its allies\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/markets\/global-markets-wrapup-1-2024-01-12\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">attacked Houthi targets in Yemen<\/a>, responding to the rebels\u2019 previous assaults on merchant vessels. If the conflict continues to sustain, analysts believe Brent and WTI prices could cross $75 and $80, respectively. This could also rekindle inflationary pressures and complicate the Fed\u2019s aim for a\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/tokenist.com\/three-indicators-that-show-promise-for-a-soft-landing\/\">soft landing<\/a>\u00a0in the US economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Red Sea Conflict Marks Escalation in Middle East Tensions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The US and UK forces launched airstrikes on over a dozen Houthi targets in Yemen, marking the latest development in the ongoing&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/tokenist.com\/brent-up-1-5-as-oil-prices-rise-after-tensions-heat-up-in-the-red-sea\/\">Red Sea conflict<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Reports indicate that the recent attacks were a response to a series of&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.pbs.org\/newshour\/world\/how-houthi-rebel-attacks-in-the-red-sea-threaten-global-shipping#:~:text=Since%20mid%2DNovember%202023%2C%20the,global%20inflation%20begins%20to%20ebb.\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Houthi assaults on merchant vessels<\/a>&nbsp;in the past few weeks. This conflict marks the latest significant escalation in the ongoing tensions in the Middle East, a situation that has been simmering for months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Since the Gaza war erupted, the Houthi rebels have unveiled a spate of strikes on vessels in the Red Sea, a key international shipping route. The assaults disrupted trade flows, adding to the upward pressure that supply constraints are placing on global inflation.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-analysts-say-further-deterioration-could-propel-brent-over-80\">Analysts Say Further Deterioration Could Propel Brent Over $80<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The retaliation attack by the US and its allies weighed on sentiment among investors, with oil prices making the most pronounced movement.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Crude oil surged higher on Friday on fears that further escalation in the conflict could bring more disruption to shipping or even spark a broader regional war. Brent crude jumped more than 2.8% to $79.58, and the WTI rose over 3% to $74.22.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>UBS commodity strategist Giovanni Staunovo said the oil price surge was fueled by the market\u2019s fears over further escalation. On the other hand, \u201cany risk premium will only sustain if there are disruptions to oil supply,\u201d he&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2024-01-12\/what-the-us-led-airstrikes-on-yemen-likely-mean-for-oil-prices\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">said<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cWe look for higher prices over the coming months, expecting Brent to move above $80 a barrel, as a result of OPEC+ production cuts keeping the oil market slightly undersupplied.\u201d\u2013 Staunovo said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Westpac Banking\u2019s head of commodity and carbon research, Robert Rennie, said markets had been too concentrated on rising global supply through the end of last year. At the same time, the continuing deterioration in the Red Sea conflict has been underplayed in 2024. With Houthi leaders claiming they would respond to any US attack, WTI could jump above $75 a barrel, and Brent could exceed $80, Rennie noted.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In addition, further exacerbation of the situation could also become a concern from an inflationary standpoint. Oil plays a vital role in the global economy and has been among the key inflation drivers over the past two years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As such, an abrupt upswing in oil prices could make it more difficult for the Federal Reserve to reduce inflation to the desired 2% and orchestrate the so-called soft landing. The US central bank said last month it&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/tokenist.com\/spx-spikes-1-4-as-fed-pivot-sparks-market-optimism\/\">plans to begin cutting interest rates in 2024<\/a>, but unexpected inflationary pressures could force the policymakers to delay the moves.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Originally Posted January 12, 2024 &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/tokenist.com\/high-oil-prices-can-jeopardize-a-us-soft-landing\/\">High Oil Prices Can Jeopardize a US Soft Landing<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Disclosure:<\/strong> Tim Fries has no positions in any of the stocks mentioned, and has no plans to initiate any positions within the 72 hours following the publishing of this article. This article expresses the opinions of Tim Fries. Tokenist Media LLC has no position in any of the stocks mentioned, and does not plan to initiate any positions within 72 hours of the publishing ofthis article. Please consult our website policy for more information.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Oil prices jumped higher on Friday after US and UK attacked Houthi rebels. Analysts think further escalation in the conflict may propel Brent above $80.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":501,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[21,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[147,40,4231,12497],"contributors-categories":[13710],"class_list":{"0":"post-201124","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-commodities","7":"category-north-america","8":"category-region","9":"category-securities","10":"category-text-articles","11":"category-traders-insight","12":"tag-commodities","13":"tag-oil","14":"tag-oil-prices","15":"tag-soft-landing","16":"contributors-categories-the-tokenist"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.7) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>High Oil Prices Can Jeopardize a US Soft Landing<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Oil prices jumped higher on Friday after US and UK attacked Houthi rebels. 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