{"id":200940,"date":"2024-01-10T08:05:11","date_gmt":"2024-01-10T13:05:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=200940"},"modified":"2024-01-24T13:53:38","modified_gmt":"2024-01-24T18:53:38","slug":"chart-advisor-contemplating-spy-decision-point","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/chart-advisor-contemplating-spy-decision-point\/","title":{"rendered":"Chart Advisor: Contemplating SPY Decision Point"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

By\u00a0John Kosar, CMT<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

1\/\u00a0The S&P 500 Remains Very Vulnerable Below 4694<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

2\/\u00a0Investor Asset Flows: S&P 500 (SPY)<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

3\/\u00a0Market Internals: The Asbury 6 (A6)<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

4\/\u00a0Market Breadth: % Of NYSE Composite Stocks Trading Above Their 40-day Moving Average<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

5\/\u00a0Standard Deviation: NYSE Stocks<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investopedia is partnering with CMT Association on this newsletter. \u00a0The contents of this newsletter are for informational and educational purposes only, however, and do not constitute investing advice. The guest authors, which may sell research to investors, and may trade or hold positions in securities mentioned herein do not represent the views of CMT Association or Investopedia. Please consult a financial advisor for investment recommendations and services.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

1\/ The S&P 500 Remains Very Vulnerable Below 4694<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Conclusion, Investment Implications, Strategy<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This week, the Tactical (monthly) portion of Table 1 below retains the Positive distribution of key near-term market factors for the US stock market that, for the most part, has been in effect since November \u2014 but just barely<\/em>.  Meanwhile, the Strategic (quarterly) portion of the table retains the previous two weeks\u2019 slightly Negative alignment of key intermediate-term market factors, from the Positive one that had existed for the prior two months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key theme this week is that this is a very important Tactical and Strategic decision point for the benchmark S&P 500 (SPX), from which it\u2019s next one to several month directional move \u2014 either up or down \u2014 is likely to begin.  Our analysis favors a downside resolution from at or near formidable overhead resistance at 4819<\/strong>, which is the January 2022 all-time high, due to current extremes in market breadth, standard deviation, recently declining assets in the ProShares Ultra S&P500 (SSO), subtly rising market volatility, and additional metrics not shown here including investor sentiment and seasonality,<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tactically, it would take a sustained decline below SPX 4694 on declining volume and a Negative\/Risk Off shift in our Tactical models (<\/strong>Asbury 6<\/a>,\u00a0<\/strong>Correction Protection Model<\/a>) to indicate the corrective decline the US stock market is overdue for is underway<\/strong>.\u00a0 Until then, the current October 2023 uptrend is still in charge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2\/ Investor Asset Flows: S&P 500 (SPY)<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The lower panel of <\/strong>this chart shows that, through Jan 8th, the total net assets invested in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) expanded by $29 billion or 6.4% since Dec 14th.  The green highlights in the upper panel show that the lowest price that SPX has traded since then is 4694<\/em> \u2014 actually six times out of the past 17 days to indicate the market \u201csees\u201d it and recognizes its importance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A decline below 4694 would put all of this newly-added AUM in SPY into the red, which could trigger a deeper and more aggressive decline.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

3\/ Market Internals: The Asbury 6 (A6)<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

This table shows that, through January 8th, five of the\u00a0Asbury 6<\/a>\u00a0constituent metrics remain positive (green).\u00a0\u00a0The\u00a0Asbury 6\u00a0 Risk Management Model<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0itself has been on a Positive tactical bias since Nov 2nd\u00a0while the S&P 500 has risen by as much as 11% since then.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Four or more metrics in one direction, either Positive (green) or Negative (red), indicate a tactical bias.\u00a0\u00a0The dates in each cell indicate when each individual constituent of the \u201cA6\u201d turned either positive (green) or negative (red).\u00a0 When all Asbury 6 constituent metrics are positive, market internals are the most conducive to adding risk to portfolios. Each negative reading adds an additional element of risk to participating in current or new investment ideas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

4\/ Market Breadth: % Of NYSE Composite Stocks Trading Above Their 40-day Moving Average<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The red highlights in\u00a0this chart show that the percentage of NYSE Stocks trading above their 40-day moving average is currently declining from a multi-year strong extreme of 71% or higher (lower panel) that, as a contrary indicator,\u00a0has coincided with or closely led every significant peak in the S&P 500 (upper panel) since 2021\u00a0\u2014 in major uptrends and major downtrends alike.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

5\/ Standard Deviation: NYSE Stocks<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The red highlights in this chart show that the percentage of NYSE stocks trading one standard deviation\u00a0below\u00a0their 40-day MA (inverted scale) is reversing from a low extreme of 8% or less that\u00a0has previously coincided with or closely led every significant peak in the S&P 500 (upper panel) since 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

—<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Originally posted 10th January 2024<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The key theme this week is that this is a very important Tactical and Strategic decision point for the benchmark S&P 500 (SPX), from which it\u2019s next one to several month directional move \u2014 either up or down \u2014 is likely to 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