{"id":200847,"date":"2024-01-08T10:45:00","date_gmt":"2024-01-08T15:45:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=200847"},"modified":"2024-01-09T11:00:13","modified_gmt":"2024-01-09T16:00:13","slug":"weekly-market-recap-january-8-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/weekly-market-recap-january-8-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Weekly Market Recap: January 8, 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-week-in-review\">The week in review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Job openings declined to 8.79M in Nov.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Nonfarm payrolls increased 216K<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Wages grew 4.1% y\/y and 0.4% m\/m<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-week-ahead\">The week ahead<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>CPI<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>PPI<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-thought-of-the-week\">Thought of the Week<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>After moving sideways during the first half of 2023, the dollar continued its decline to end 2% down in 2023 (now -11% from its October 2022 peak). In fact, it depreciated against almost every major DM currency except the Japanese yen. After over 10 years of dollar strength, could this be the start of a new cycle? History suggests the dollar tends to move in multi-year cycles, with long periods of weakness following extended periods of strength. Dollar movements are driven by interest rate and growth differentials and sentiment in the short term, but by current account balances over the long term.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There are many factors that could put downward pressure on the dollar in 2024 and beyond. The Fed is likely to cut first out of the DM central banks, whereas others are expected to stay on pause for longer or even raise rates. In addition, with the end of negative interest rates in Europe and most likely Japan, interest rate differentials between the U.S. and other DMs will likely not be as wide as they were in the post-GFC period. Regarding growth, consumer spending, the bedrock of the U.S. economy, is set to slow after hitting what was likely a high-water mark in 3Q. Over the long term, the increasing current account deficit and federal debt also suggest further USD depreciation. At the same time, elevated geopolitical risks and any upward surprises in inflation could interrupt its path downward.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For investors, a weaker dollar increases the opportunity for international equities and internationally exposed U.S. companies to perform well. Even after a year of strong U.S. outperformance, investors should avoid recency bias by ensuring their equity portfolios are properly diversified across different regions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1016\" height=\"404\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/01\/Screenshot-2024-01-08-094630.png\" alt=\"The US dollar tends to move in multi-year cycles\" class=\"wp-image-200848 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/01\/Screenshot-2024-01-08-094630.png 1016w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/01\/Screenshot-2024-01-08-094630-700x278.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/01\/Screenshot-2024-01-08-094630-300x119.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/01\/Screenshot-2024-01-08-094630-768x305.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1016px) 100vw, 1016px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1016px; aspect-ratio: 1016\/404;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"492\" height=\"159\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/01\/Screenshot-2024-01-08-094701.png\" alt=\"Chart of the week and thought of the week sources\" class=\"wp-image-200849 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/01\/Screenshot-2024-01-08-094701.png 492w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/01\/Screenshot-2024-01-08-094701-300x97.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 492px) 100vw, 492px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 492px; aspect-ratio: 492\/159;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u2014<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Originally Posted January 8, 2024 \u2013&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/am.jpmorgan.com\/us\/en\/asset-management\/adv\/insights\/market-insights\/market-updates\/weekly-market-recap\/\">Weekly Market Recap<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Past performance does not guarantee future results.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Diversification does not guarantee investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of financial market trends, which are based on current market conditions. We believe the information provided here is reliable, but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The views and strategies described may not be appropriate for all investors. This material has been prepared for informational purposes only, and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice. References to future returns are not promises or even estimates of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Market Insights program provides comprehensive data and commentary on global markets without reference to products. Designed as a tool to help clients understand the markets and support investment decision-making, the program explores the implications of current economic data and changing market conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The J.P. Morgan Asset Management Market Insights and Portfolio Insights programs, as non-independent research, have not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, nor are they subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature<br>or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from J.P. Morgan Asset Management or any of its subsidiaries to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professional, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>J.P. Morgan Asset Management is the brand for the asset management business of JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. and its affiliates worldwide.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Telephone calls and electronic communications may be monitored and\/or recorded.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Personal data will be collected, stored and processed by J.P. Morgan Asset Management in accordance with our privacy policies at https:\/\/www.jpmorgan.com\/privacy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This communication is issued in the United States, by J.P. Morgan Investment Management Inc. or J.P. Morgan Alternative Asset Management, Inc., both regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If you are a person with a disability and need additional support in viewing the material, please call us at 1-800-343-1113 for assistance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Copyright 2024 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><sup>\u00a9<\/sup>JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., January 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Unless otherwise stated, all data is as of January 8, 2024 or as of most recently available<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>History suggests the dollar tends to move in multi-year cycles, with long periods of weakness following extended periods of strength.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":186,"featured_media":200848,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[771,1685,2298,14491],"contributors-categories":[13608],"class_list":{"0":"post-200847","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-macro","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-region","10":"category-securities","11":"category-text-articles","12":"category-traders-insight","13":"tag-jobs","14":"tag-macro","15":"tag-market-recap","16":"tag-us-dollars","17":"contributors-categories-j-p-morgan-asset-management"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - 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