{"id":200284,"date":"2023-12-18T11:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-12-18T16:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=200284"},"modified":"2024-01-02T09:49:32","modified_gmt":"2024-01-02T14:49:32","slug":"weekly-market-recap-december-18-2023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/weekly-market-recap-december-18-2023\/","title":{"rendered":"Weekly Market Recap: December 18, 2023"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-thought-of-the-week\">Thought of the Week<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Last week\u2019s retail sales report surprised to the upside, with total retail sales increasing 0.3% m\/m on a seasonally adjusted basis in November. Excluding auto and gas, retail sales increased 0.6% m\/m, up from 0.1% growth in October. Sales at gasoline stations decreased 2.9% due to falling energy prices. Auto sales rebounded 0.5% after falling 1.1% the prior month. Elsewhere in the report, sales in food services, furniture, health &amp; personal care, and sporting goods all increased, while sales in electronics &amp; appliances and building materials both decreased, demonstrating consumers\u2019 continued preference for services. Importantly, sales in the control group, which includes the categories used to calculate GDP, increased 0.4% in November, above expectations and up from a flat reading in October. As a result, GDP estimates for Q4 were revised upwards. The Atlanta Fed\u2019s GDPNow model is currently projecting real GDP to grow 2.6% q\/q in 4Q23, up from its estimate of 1.2% a week prior. In addition, healthy retail sales data along with a favorable headline CPI reading, a cooler than expected PPI report, and the FOMC\u2019s dovish pivot should similarly augur well for profits in Q4. Moderate CPI and PPI and the prospect of lower rates next year should support margins, while solid retail sales may defy companies\u2019 gloomy expectations for consumer demand noted in 3Q earnings calls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The slew of favorable data and a dovish FOMC meeting also led markets to rally last week, as investors become increasingly hopeful of a \u201csoft landing.\u201d Looking ahead, markets should continue to find support over the near term; however, as we move deeper into 2024, the path forward for markets may be bumpier, particularly as economic growth slows to below trend and inflation remains above 2%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-week-in-review\">The week in review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Headline\/core CPI: +3.1%\/+4.0% y\/y<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Headline\/core PPI: +0.9%\/+2.0% y\/y<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Initial claims decreased to 202K<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-week-ahead\">The week ahead<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li> 3Q23 Real GDP (final estimate)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Light vehicle sales<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>PCE<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"406\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/12\/Screenshot-2023-12-18-101626.png\" alt=\"4Q23 GDP estimates revised upwards after strong retails sales report\" class=\"wp-image-200285 lazyload\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1024px; aspect-ratio: 1024\/406;aspect-ratio:2.522167487684729;width:1024px;height:auto\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/12\/Screenshot-2023-12-18-101626.png 1024w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/12\/Screenshot-2023-12-18-101626-700x278.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/12\/Screenshot-2023-12-18-101626-300x119.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/12\/Screenshot-2023-12-18-101626-768x305.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"493\" height=\"86\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/12\/Screenshot-2023-12-18-101655.png\" alt=\"Chart of the week and thought of the week sources\" class=\"wp-image-200286 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/12\/Screenshot-2023-12-18-101655.png 493w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/12\/Screenshot-2023-12-18-101655-300x52.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 493px) 100vw, 493px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 493px; aspect-ratio: 493\/86;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u2014<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Originally Posted December 18, 2023 \u2013\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/am.jpmorgan.com\/us\/en\/asset-management\/adv\/insights\/market-insights\/market-updates\/weekly-market-recap\/\">Weekly Market Recap<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Past performance does not guarantee future results.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Diversification does not guarantee investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of financial market trends, which are based on current market conditions. We believe the information provided here is reliable, but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The views and strategies described may not be appropriate for all investors. This material has been prepared for informational purposes only, and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice. References to future returns are not promises or even estimates of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Market Insights program provides comprehensive data and commentary on global markets without reference to products. Designed as a tool to help clients understand the markets and support investment decision-making, the program explores the implications of current economic data and changing market conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The J.P. Morgan Asset Management Market Insights and Portfolio Insights programs, as non-independent research, have not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, nor are they subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature<br>or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from J.P. Morgan Asset Management or any of its subsidiaries to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professional, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>J.P. Morgan Asset Management is the brand for the asset management business of JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. and its affiliates worldwide.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Telephone calls and electronic communications may be monitored and\/or recorded.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Personal data will be collected, stored and processed by J.P. Morgan Asset Management in accordance with our privacy policies at https:\/\/www.jpmorgan.com\/privacy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This communication is issued in the United States, by J.P. Morgan Investment Management Inc. or J.P. Morgan Alternative Asset Management, Inc., both regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If you are a person with a disability and need additional support in viewing the material, please call us at 1-800-343-1113 for assistance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Copyright 2023 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><sup>\u00a9<\/sup>JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., December 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Unless otherwise stated, all data is as of December 18, 2023 or as of most recently available<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Markets should continue to find support over the near-term; however, as we move deeper into 2024, the path forward for markets may be bumpier.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":186,"featured_media":200285,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[3598,2298,12555],"contributors-categories":[13608],"class_list":{"0":"post-200284","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-macro","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-region","10":"category-securities","11":"category-text-articles","12":"category-traders-insight","13":"tag-market-outlook","14":"tag-market-recap","15":"tag-weekly-market-recap","16":"contributors-categories-j-p-morgan-asset-management"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - 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