{"id":200025,"date":"2023-12-11T11:15:00","date_gmt":"2023-12-11T16:15:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=200025"},"modified":"2023-12-11T12:16:07","modified_gmt":"2023-12-11T17:16:07","slug":"federal-reserve-meets-wednesday-will-powell-signal-rate-cuts-in-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/federal-reserve-meets-wednesday-will-powell-signal-rate-cuts-in-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Federal Reserve Meets Wednesday: Will Powell Signal Rate Cuts In 2024?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-zinger-key-points\">ZINGER KEY POINTS<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Fed expected to deliver more dovish message as it holds rates<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Inflation expectations are moving lower as energy prices fall<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>The final 2023 policy meeting for the&nbsp;<strong>Federal Reserve<\/strong>&nbsp;will most likely end with the decision to hold interest rates where they are. As dull as this appears on the surface, it will not be a \u201cho-hum\u201d moment&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.benzinga.com\/markets\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">for financial markets<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Market participants are looking for signs that cement the view that rate hikes are done with, and that they can expect rate cuts to begin in the first half of 2024. Any other interpretations coming from Wednesday\u2019s Fed statement will be a huge disappointment and would likely spur sharp market reactions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Economic analysts now expect the Federal Reserve to hold policy settings at this week\u2019s meeting, accompanied by a more dovish tone in the statement. This would be \u201con message\u201d to expectations that the Fed will deliver a first-rate cut at least by May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cAt the Wednesday meeting, we expect the Fed to take the initial steps in changing its communication from hawkish holds to dovish holds,\u201d said Mark Cabana, rates strategist at Bank of America.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Data Supports More Dovish Expectations<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Data since the November meeting has pointed to moderation in economic activity, slowing inflation and \u2014&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.benzinga.com\/markets\/equities\/23\/12\/36155946\/uaws-return-to-work-pushes-us-jobs-growth-higher-but-dark-clouds-hover-over-retail-sector\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Friday\u2019s non-farm payrolls<\/a>&nbsp;report aside \u2014 a cooling labor market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The&nbsp;<strong>dollar index<\/strong>&nbsp;(DXY) has fallen 2.8% since the November meeting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Higher interest rates support the dollar, and the DXY has been on the decline since early October \u2013 when data began to show inflation was slowing and markets heard the first hints of dovish rhetoric from the Fed\u2019s Open Market Committee (FOMC) members.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At the same time, equity markets have been rallying in hopes of lower rates. Since Oct. 27, when it began its most recent rally, the&nbsp;<strong>SPDR S&amp;P 500<\/strong>, an ETF that tracks the benchmark U.S. equity index, has rallied an impressive 12%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Or Will The Fed Push Back?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>While expectations are for rate cuts to come, there\u2019s still a few analysts who believe the Fed could push back on these hopes on Wednesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The question is, they say, can the Fed afford to let the markets dictate central bank policy?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThe bigger story is likely to be contained in the individual Fed member forecasts \u2013 how far will they look to back the market perceptions that major rate cuts are on their way? We strongly suspect there will be a lot of pushback here,\u201d said James Knightley, chief international economist at ING.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Inflation Remains Key To Fed Thinking<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Ahead of the Federal Reserve decision on Wednesday is the publication on Tuesday of November consumer price inflation data, and this could be pivotal. The&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.benzinga.com\/economics\/macro-economic-events\/23\/11\/35775608\/us-inflation-eases-more-than-expected-in-october-cements-expectations-for-end-of-\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">October report<\/a>&nbsp;showed headline inflation had dropped to 3.2% from 3.7% in the previous month and, given the rate of decline in energy prices during November, the headline rate is likely to have slowed further.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Indeed, the price of gasoline paid at the pump now&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.benzinga.com\/news\/23\/12\/36157601\/gas-poised-to-fall-below-3-a-gallon-but-spare-a-thought-for-the-heavily-priced-europeans\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">averages a little over $3 a gallon<\/a>. \u201cWe are just 7 cents from the national average price of gasoline falling to its lowest level since 2021. Current national average: $3.12\/gal,\u201d said Patrick de Haan, energy analyst at GasBuddy, in a Tweet on Monday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The latest&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.benzinga.com\/etfs\/broad-u-s-equity-etfs\/23\/12\/36154833\/us-consumer-sentiment-sharply-rebounds-in-december-up-16-1-year-over-year-inflation-ex\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">consumer confidence report by Michigan University<\/a>&nbsp;noted a fall in inflation expectations, adding further fuel to the argument that price pressures will ease further.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Ian Shepherdson<\/strong>, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said: \u201cWe now expect this measure of inflation expectations, which is often referenced by Fed officials, to fall further over the next couple of months, likely dipping below the cycle low, 2.7% in September last year.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Cabana at Bank of America added: \u201cThe Fed\u2019s confidence has likely grown that its current policy stance is appropriate and sufficiently restrictive. The next policy action will likely be a cut, in our view.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Originally Posted December 11, 2023 &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.benzinga.com\/markets\/equities\/23\/12\/36176639\/federal-reserve-critical-meet-on-wednesday-will-powell-signal-rate-cuts-for-h1-2024\">Federal Reserve Meets Wednesday: Will Powell Signal Rate Cuts In 2024?<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The final 2023 policy meeting for the Federal Reserve will most likely end with the decision to hold interest rates where they are.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1278,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[77,12620,446,4979],"contributors-categories":[13584],"class_list":{"0":"post-200025","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-macro","7":"category-north-america","8":"category-region","9":"category-securities","10":"category-text-articles","11":"category-traders-insight","12":"tag-fed","13":"tag-fed-chair-powell","14":"tag-federal-reserve","15":"tag-rate-cuts","16":"contributors-categories-benzinga"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Federal Reserve Meets Wednesday: Will Powell Signal Rate Cuts In 2024?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The final 2023 policy meeting for the Federal Reserve will most likely end with the decision to hold interest rates where they are.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/200025\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Federal Reserve Meets Wednesday: Will Powell Signal Rate Cuts In 2024? | IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The final 2023 policy meeting for the Federal Reserve will most likely end with the decision to hold interest rates where they are.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/federal-reserve-meets-wednesday-will-powell-signal-rate-cuts-in-2024\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-12-11T16:15:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2023-12-11T17:16:07+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Neil Dennis\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Neil Dennis\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\n\t    \"@context\": \"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\n\t    \"@graph\": [\n\t        {\n\t            \"@type\": \"NewsArticle\",\n\t            \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/securities\\\/macro\\\/federal-reserve-meets-wednesday-will-powell-signal-rate-cuts-in-2024\\\/#article\",\n\t            \"isPartOf\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/securities\\\/macro\\\/federal-reserve-meets-wednesday-will-powell-signal-rate-cuts-in-2024\\\/\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"author\": {\n\t                \"name\": \"Neil Dennis\",\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/a8e4475efc919de4108c21467b46fd9d\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"headline\": \"Federal Reserve Meets Wednesday: Will Powell Signal Rate Cuts In 2024?\",\n\t            \"datePublished\": \"2023-12-11T16:15:00+00:00\",\n\t            \"dateModified\": \"2023-12-11T17:16:07+00:00\",\n\t            \"mainEntityOfPage\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/securities\\\/macro\\\/federal-reserve-meets-wednesday-will-powell-signal-rate-cuts-in-2024\\\/\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"wordCount\": 670,\n\t            \"commentCount\": 0,\n\t            \"publisher\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/#organization\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"keywords\": [\n\t                \"Fed\",\n\t                \"Fed Chair Powell\",\n\t                \"Federal Reserve\",\n\t                \"rate cuts\"\n\t            ],\n\t            \"articleSection\": [\n\t                \"Macro\",\n\t                \"North America\",\n\t                \"Region\",\n\t                \"Securities\",\n\t                \"Text Articles\",\n\t                \"Traders' Insight\"\n\t            ],\n\t            \"inLanguage\": \"en-US\",\n\t            \"potentialAction\": [\n\t                {\n\t                    \"@type\": \"CommentAction\",\n\t                    \"name\": \"Comment\",\n\t                    \"target\": [\n\t                        \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/securities\\\/macro\\\/federal-reserve-meets-wednesday-will-powell-signal-rate-cuts-in-2024\\\/#respond\"\n\t                    ]\n\t                }\n\t            ]\n\t        },\n\t        {\n\t            \"@type\": \"WebPage\",\n\t            \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/securities\\\/macro\\\/federal-reserve-meets-wednesday-will-powell-signal-rate-cuts-in-2024\\\/\",\n\t            \"url\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/securities\\\/macro\\\/federal-reserve-meets-wednesday-will-powell-signal-rate-cuts-in-2024\\\/\",\n\t            \"name\": \"Federal Reserve Meets Wednesday: Will Powell Signal Rate Cuts In 2024? 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