{"id":199736,"date":"2023-12-04T12:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-12-04T17:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=199736"},"modified":"2023-12-05T05:07:14","modified_gmt":"2023-12-05T10:07:14","slug":"markets-might-have-outkicked-the-coverage","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/markets-might-have-outkicked-the-coverage\/","title":{"rendered":"Markets Might Have Outkicked the Coverage"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/traders-hear-what-they-want-from-powell\/\">We opined on Friday<\/a> that bond and stock traders appeared to listen rather selectively to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/newsevents\/speech\/powell20231201a.htm\">Chairman Powell\u2019s address<\/a>.&nbsp; This morning\u2019s reaction, where those markets have largely retraced Friday\u2019s moves, seems more in line with the full tone of those comments.&nbsp; Our perspective was:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>In the market\u2019s current mindset, the acknowledgment of a restrictive policy is a good thing.&nbsp; Never mind that it is hardly restricting investment in stocks and now bonds, and that the most recent reading of third-quarter GDP was 5.2%, the prevailing sentiment is that the Fed has a predilection for moving rates back to a neutral, if not accommodative stance.&nbsp; Thus, rate cuts.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>The full text of the speech offers little else indicating an immediate move toward rate cuts.&nbsp; He led with the now-standard boilerplate about being prepared to tighten further, even if no one seems to take it seriously.&nbsp; But Powell reiterated more than once that 3%, or even 2.5%, is not 2%<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We also acknowledged that the stock market\u2019s reaction could have been abetted by seasonal factors:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>While it was entirely possible that the move higher in equities was inevitable, considering that today is both the first of the month and a Friday (we\u2019ve discussed options traders\u2019 ability, if not propensity, to shove markets higher on Fridays), the sharp reversal in bond yields seems more linked to Powell\u2019s speech.&nbsp; Whether it was actual enthusiasm about Powell\u2019s speech or simply a relief that it wasn\u2019t bad news, we see yields about 6-8 basis points lower after being up by about 3-4bp earlier this morning.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Stocks rose throughout the afternoon as bonds continued their advance.&nbsp; Indeed, Fed Funds futures went from pricing in a 53% chance of a rate cut by March to 75%, and the expectation for December 2024 went from 4.19% to 3.99%.&nbsp; Again, this was when there was no explicit indication that rate cuts were planned for the near future.&nbsp; This morning we see about half of those expectations retraced, with March showing a 65% chance of a cut and December priced at 4.10%.&nbsp; Treasury note yields gave back the bulk of their gains as well, with the 2-year yield going from 4.68% on Thursday to 4.54% on Friday, to 4.65% just before midday.&nbsp; The 10-year yield went from 4.33% to 4.2% to 4.29% over that same period.&nbsp; Meanwhile, we see the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) retracing roughly all of Friday\u2019s gains, with the NASDAQ 100 (NDX) well below even Thursday\u2019s lows:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-3-day-chart-spx-red-green-1-minute-candles-ndx-blue-line\"><strong><em>3-Day Chart, SPX (red\/green 1-minute candles), NDX (blue line)<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"642\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/12\/Picture1-1-1100x642.png\" alt=\"3-Day Chart, SPX (red\/green 1-minute candles), NDX (blue line)\" class=\"wp-image-199737 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/12\/Picture1-1-1100x642.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/12\/Picture1-1-700x409.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/12\/Picture1-1-300x175.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/12\/Picture1-1-768x448.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/12\/Picture1-1-1536x896.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/12\/Picture1-1.png 1710w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/642;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Source: Interactive Brokers<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Today\u2019s underperformance of NDX can be explained by the fact that the Magnificent Seven stocks are all lower today.&nbsp; We might expect them to be lower on a day when yields are higher, but there is some stock-specific news today as well.&nbsp; Meta Platforms (META) is lower on reports that <a href=\"https:\/\/www.msn.com\/en-us\/money\/companies\/zuckerberg-sells-first-meta-shares-in-two-years-after-172-surge\/ar-AA1kYCQG\">Mark Zuckerberg will be selling shares<\/a> for the first time in two years.&nbsp; Quite frankly, why shouldn\u2019t he?&nbsp; He and his wife have extensive charitable interests, and his stock has nearly doubled this year.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I find the movement in Nvidia (NVDA) to be the most interesting of the bunch.&nbsp; The stock failed to rally after its <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/options\/score-one-for-the-options-traders-on-nvidia-so-far\/\">recent earnings blowout<\/a>, and has been on a bit of a downtrend since then.&nbsp; After a fall of more than -3%, NVDA found support at the $450 level, which happens to be roughly the levels of both its 50 and 100-day moving averages.&nbsp; As we can see from the chart below, the 50-day provided a rough basis for this year\u2019s uptrend, while the 100-day provided solid support in late September.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-nvda-1-year-daily-candles-with-50-day-blue-100-day-purple-and-200-day-yellow-moving-averages\"><strong><em>NVDA 1-Year Daily Candles with 50-Day (blue), 100-Day (purple), and 200-Day (yellow) Moving Averages<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"642\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/12\/Picture2-1-1100x642.png\" alt=\"NVDA 1-Year Daily Candles with 50-Day (blue), 100-Day (purple), and 200-Day (yellow) Moving Averages\" class=\"wp-image-199738 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/12\/Picture2-1-1100x642.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/12\/Picture2-1-700x409.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/12\/Picture2-1-300x175.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/12\/Picture2-1-768x448.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/12\/Picture2-1-1536x896.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/12\/Picture2-1.png 1710w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/642;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Source: Interactive Brokers<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">While I am loath to put too much emphasis on a single stock and a couple of moving averages, this is a key test not only for NVDA, but the market as a whole.&nbsp; If current levels fail to hold, a drop to the $400 range is not out of the question.&nbsp; Considering NVDA\u2019s heavy weight in key market capitalization weighted indices and even greater weight in investors\u2019 current mindshare, a further 10% drop in the stock could have ramifications beyond just that one issue.&nbsp; Heck, this morning we saw indices bounce when NVDA did.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Finally, I\u2019d be remiss if we didn\u2019t highlight one of the stranger moves in the last 24 hours.&nbsp; Gold had a huge rally overnight, breaking out to new all-time highs (in USD terms) before giving back all its gains and then some:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-spot-gold-3-day-chart-3-minute-candles\"><strong><em>Spot Gold, 3-Day Chart, 3-Minute Candles<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"639\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/12\/Picture3-1100x639.png\" alt=\"Spot Gold, 3-Day Chart, 3-Minute Candles\" class=\"wp-image-199739 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/12\/Picture3-1100x639.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/12\/Picture3-700x407.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/12\/Picture3-300x174.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/12\/Picture3-768x446.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/12\/Picture3-1536x892.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/12\/Picture3-2048x1189.png 2048w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/639;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Source: Interactive Brokers<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The reversal is quite stunning if we look at it as a daily candle:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-spot-gold-3-month-chart-daily-candles\"><strong><em>Spot Gold, 3-Month Chart, Daily Candles<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"639\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/12\/Picture4-1100x639.png\" alt=\"Spot Gold, 3-Month Chart, Daily Candles\" class=\"wp-image-199740 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/12\/Picture4-1100x639.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/12\/Picture4-700x407.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/12\/Picture4-300x174.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/12\/Picture4-768x446.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/12\/Picture4-1536x892.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/12\/Picture4-2048x1189.png 2048w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/639;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Source: Interactive Brokers<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That is one heck of bearish engulfing reversal.&nbsp; The breakout was said to have been triggered by stop-loss orders in Asian hours, but there was clearly no follow through.&nbsp; Today\u2019s dollar strength, helped by higher yields, certainly isn\u2019t helping the gold price right now.&nbsp;&nbsp; \u201cDigital gold\u201d is zooming, as enthusiasm for potential bitcoin-ETF listings take on a life of their own (perhaps setting up a classic \u201cbuy-the-rumor, sell-the-news\u201d event), but the older yellow metal is failing to keep pace.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>We opined on Friday that bond and stock traders appeared to listen rather selectively to Chairman Powell&#8217;s address.  This morning\u2019s reaction, where those markets have largely retraced Friday&#8217;s moves, seems more in line with the full tone of those comments.  <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":184128,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[14700,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[12620,16355,1685,72],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":["post-199736","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-ibkr-market-insights","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-fed-chair-powell","tag-fed-market-outlook","tag-macro","tag-markets","contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Markets Might Have Outkicked the Coverage | Traders&#039; Insight<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"We opined on Friday that bond and stock traders appeared to listen rather selectively to Chairman Powell\u2019s address. 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