{"id":199680,"date":"2023-12-04T10:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-12-04T15:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=199680"},"modified":"2023-12-11T12:17:43","modified_gmt":"2023-12-11T17:17:43","slug":"weekly-market-recap-december-4-2023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/weekly-market-recap-december-4-2023\/","title":{"rendered":"Weekly Market Recap: December 4, 2023"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-week-in-review\">The week in review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>New home sales: 679K<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Pending home sales: 1.5% m\/m<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Headline\/Core PCE: 3.0%\/3.5% y\/y<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-week-ahead\">The week ahead<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>JOLTs<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Services PMI<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Employment report<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-thought-of-the-week\">Thought of the Week<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Despite a decline over the past few weeks, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate remains at nearly its highest level in 20 years and more than double its level at the start of last year. However, it is important to distinguish between the impact of this rate surge on the housing market and on consumption. This week\u2019s chart shows the yawning gap between the average rate on new 30-year fixed-rate mortgages and the average mortgage rate for existing mortgage holders. For home buyers, the change in the environment has been dramatic, leading to a very sharp decline in both housing starts and home sales. However, it is important to recognize that fewer than 4% of American households bought a home in the last year. For the vast majority of families who either don\u2019t have a mortgage or have a fixed-rate mortgage, the surge in mortgage rates has had no impact on their financial position. For this reason, while the Federal Reserve has been raising interest rates to slow aggregate demand, real consumer spending has remained strong, with a 2.2% year-over-year increase in October and a strong early start to the holiday retail season. In short, while the Fed\u2019s higher-for-longer interest rate policy continues to undermine the housing market, it is having little impact on consumer spending and today\u2019s housing crunch, unlike the bursting housing bust of the mid-2000s, and does not appear to be of a magnitude that will put the U.S. economy into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1006\" height=\"401\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/12\/Screenshot-2023-12-04-100201.png\" alt=\"Housing: Frozen in place by mortgage rate surge\" class=\"wp-image-199681 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/12\/Screenshot-2023-12-04-100201.png 1006w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/12\/Screenshot-2023-12-04-100201-700x279.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/12\/Screenshot-2023-12-04-100201-300x120.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/12\/Screenshot-2023-12-04-100201-768x306.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1006px) 100vw, 1006px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1006px; aspect-ratio: 1006\/401;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"484\" height=\"89\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/12\/Screenshot-2023-12-04-100227.png\" alt=\"Chart of the week and thought of the week sources\" class=\"wp-image-199682 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/12\/Screenshot-2023-12-04-100227.png 484w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/12\/Screenshot-2023-12-04-100227-300x55.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 484px) 100vw, 484px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 484px; aspect-ratio: 484\/89;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u2014<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Originally Posted December 4, 2023 \u2013&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/am.jpmorgan.com\/us\/en\/asset-management\/adv\/insights\/market-insights\/market-updates\/weekly-market-recap\/\">Weekly Market Recap<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Past performance does not guarantee future results.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Diversification does not guarantee investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of financial market trends, which are based on current market conditions. We believe the information provided here is reliable, but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The views and strategies described may not be appropriate for all investors. This material has been prepared for informational purposes only, and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice. References to future returns are not promises or even estimates of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Market Insights program provides comprehensive data and commentary on global markets without reference to products. Designed as a tool to help clients understand the markets and support investment decision-making, the program explores the implications of current economic data and changing market conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The J.P. Morgan Asset Management Market Insights and Portfolio Insights programs, as non-independent research, have not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, nor are they subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature<br>or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from J.P. Morgan Asset Management or any of its subsidiaries to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professional, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>J.P. Morgan Asset Management is the brand for the asset management business of JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. and its affiliates worldwide.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Telephone calls and electronic communications may be monitored and\/or recorded.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Personal data will be collected, stored and processed by J.P. Morgan Asset Management in accordance with our privacy policies at https:\/\/www.jpmorgan.com\/privacy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This communication is issued in the United States, by J.P. Morgan Investment Management Inc. or J.P. Morgan Alternative Asset Management, Inc., both regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If you are a person with a disability and need additional support in viewing the material, please call us at 1-800-343-1113 for assistance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Copyright 2023 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><sup>\u00a9<\/sup>JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., December 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Unless otherwise stated, all data is as of December 4, 2023 or as of most recently available<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>While the Federal Reserve has been raising interest rates to slow aggregate demand, real consumer spending has remained strong.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":186,"featured_media":199681,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[1265,3598,2298,4793],"contributors-categories":[13608],"class_list":{"0":"post-199680","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-macro","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-region","10":"category-securities","11":"category-text-articles","12":"category-traders-insight","13":"tag-housing","14":"tag-market-outlook","15":"tag-market-recap","16":"tag-mortgage-rates","17":"contributors-categories-j-p-morgan-asset-management"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.5) - 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