{"id":199486,"date":"2023-11-29T09:08:00","date_gmt":"2023-11-29T14:08:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=199486"},"modified":"2024-01-24T13:54:05","modified_gmt":"2024-01-24T18:54:05","slug":"chart-advisor-comparing-with-internationals","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/chart-advisor-comparing-with-internationals\/","title":{"rendered":"Chart Advisor: Comparing with Internationals"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

By Adam Koos, CFP, CMT, CEPA<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

1\/ Going International<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

2\/ Home Country Bias<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

3\/ Small-Caps<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

4\/ Large-Caps<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investopedia is partnering with CMT Association on this newsletter.  The contents of this newsletter are for informational and educational purposes only, however, and do not constitute investing advice. The guest authors, which may sell research to investors, and may trade or hold positions in securities mentioned herein do not represent the views of CMT Association or Investopedia. Please consult a financial advisor for investment recommendations and services.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

1\/ Going International<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

I focused the last two days charts on stocks and bonds, but today I want to fly across the pond and discuss our international brethren to see how healthy non-U.S. stocks are today.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Let\u2019s start with the iShares MSCI ACWI ex-US ETF (ACWX), as it\u2019s a pretty good representation of the non-U.S. markets overseas. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

As you can see, international markets as a whole bottomed on\/around the same time as the U.S. markets (not pictured).  However, it\u2019s been choppy ever since, with a few lows being printed just above $45\/sh. <\/p>\n\n\n\n


For now, it\u2019s holding above its 200 MA, but trading in a range, and I can\u2019t really call this an uptrend or a downtrend.  There is a such thing as \u201ctrendless,\u201d which is probably the best way to describe the aggregate international markets today.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2\/ Home Country Bias<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Every novice investor suffers from something called \u201cHome Country Bias,\u201d which is looking at your country\u2019s major market indices and considering those indices \u201cthe ones to beat\u201d if you\u2019re \u201cbeating the market.\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n


Well\u2026 if you live in the U.S., then in order to analyze overseas markets, it pays to observe the price, momentum, and trend of the U.S. Dollar.  When the Dollar rises, this helps stocks here in the U.S. perform well.  However, when the Dollar falls, this causes international stocks denominated in U.S. Dollars to rise, instead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As you can see in the chart above, the Dollar is currently sitting at an interesting convergence, between:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  1. The COVID highs,<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  2. Its 200-day moving average, and<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  3. The formation of what could be a low Cup & Handle pattern, or perhaps it\u2019s still building a base, with the most recent low being part of the right side of that base.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    Bottom line, if the USD can hold these levels and head higher, this will be good for U.S. stocks.  If it can\u2019t, then equities overseas are going to start to look more attractive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    3\/ Small-Caps<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
    \"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    If we dive deeper and split the international markets into emerging\/small-caps and developed\/large-caps, then we start to get a better idea regarding strength overseas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    We\u2019re looking at the former, above, and as you can see, it\u2019s been a pretty rough ride since the October lows.  Said another way, international small-caps have been water boarded as the EEM has been pushed below water (i.e., it\u2019s 200 MA) a couple different times this year while it tried to gain some traction. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    These smaller companies overseas could also be subject to some tax-loss harvesting (something I mentioned in my analysis two days ago), which could cause some additional pain before we start to see a bid in these smaller overseas positions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    4\/ Large-Caps<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
    \"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    On the other hand, large-cap\/developed markets overseas look a lot more like the S&P 500 (not shown).  We have some potential support that\u2019s been holding throughout 2023, it\u2019s recently popped its head back above the 200 MA, and the next line-in-the-sand would be the July highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    While we can look at an investment like this and consider allocating to it, it\u2019s my opinion that we need to go back to the U.S. Dollar and watch it closely for signs of potential direction in overseas stocks. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    That being said, there are better and easier ways to compare the strength in stocks, sectors, asset classes, and styles to one another.  This is what we\u2019ll focus on tomorrow.  Meanwhile, if you have any questions at all, please feel free to email me, personally!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    —<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Originally posted 29th November 2023<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    International markets as a whole bottomed on\/around the same time as the U.S. markets. 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