{"id":199357,"date":"2023-11-27T10:45:00","date_gmt":"2023-11-27T15:45:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=199357"},"modified":"2023-11-27T12:52:29","modified_gmt":"2023-11-27T17:52:29","slug":"microsoft-is-trading-near-its-record-high-its-still-undervalued","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/options\/microsoft-is-trading-near-its-record-high-its-still-undervalued\/","title":{"rendered":"Microsoft Is Trading Near Its Record High. It\u2019s Still Undervalued."},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Investors should think of&nbsp;<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.barrons.com\/market-data\/stocks\/msft?mod=article_chiclet\" target=\"_blank\">Microsoft<\/a>&nbsp;as a red-hot stock that trades at a stodgy multiple.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The assertion seems insane when Microsoft\u2019s stock (ticker: MSFT) is near a record high. Not only that: So many people are long Microsoft that it is technically overbought, in the argot of traders, and could soon experience a sharp decline. But that likely fails to reflect the impact that artificial intelligence could have on Microsoft.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This call to bullishly rerate one of the world\u2019s top stocks was prompted by&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.barrons.com\/articles\/microsoft-faster-stronger-better-1450511148?mod=article_inline\">Satya Nadella<\/a>, Microsoft\u2019s CEO, and his move in response to the shake-up at OpenAI, which might be leading every other company in the world in harnessing the power of AI.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">After OpenAI CEO Sam Altman was ousted by his board, reportedly over an internal battle over profits and how the company would utilize AI\u2019s power, Nadella offered Altman a job\u2014and then offered to hire everyone else at OpenAI.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.barrons.com\/articles\/microsoft-altman-openai-stock-ai-3bd4a6b7?mod=article_inline\">Altman\u2019s surprise return to OpenAI<\/a>&nbsp;doesn\u2019t change the thesis: Nadella\u2019s response to Altman\u2019s initial termination should be viewed as a rare insight into a CEO\u2019s strategic thinking.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The move should lead investors to disregard Microsoft stock\u2019s current valuation and instead employ a thematic analysis, placing a greater emphasis on the ultimate impact of a significant trend. Investors who followed a thematic approach in&nbsp;<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.barrons.com\/market-data\/stocks\/amzn?mod=article_chiclet\" target=\"_blank\">Amazon.com<\/a>\u2019s (AMZN) early trading days benefited greatly, to cite one example.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The market is usually slow to recognize anything that can\u2019t be expressed in a financial model. Amazon was thought to be a loser stock for a long time\u2014until everyone woke up to its long game.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Unlike high-risk thematic trades predicated on a company solving a complex challenge, such as a major disease, Microsoft\u2019s risks are relatively muted. It is a financial powerhouse that generates so much free cash flow that owning the stock\u2014even bought around record-high prices\u2014arguably adds exposure to AI for free, or at a de minimus price. Microsoft owns 49% of OpenAI.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At about 36 times trailing earnings, Microsoft is valued at about double the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.barrons.com\/market-data\/indexes\/spx\">S&amp;P 500 index<\/a>\u2014which means the stock is expensive by traditional analysis. But that premium valuation is arguably warranted by the company\u2019s fundamental strengths. Consider:&nbsp;<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.barrons.com\/market-data\/stocks\/nvda?mod=article_chiclet\" target=\"_blank\">Nvidia<\/a>&nbsp;(NVDA), another AI play, trades at around 120 times earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We recently suggested using Microsoft options to profit from&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.barrons.com\/articles\/stocks-jump-microsoft-bounce-35f10156?mod=article_inline\">a year-end stock market rally<\/a>. The stock has since surged, and those trades produced dramatic returns in less than a month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Until the OpenAI drama, we intended to let the trades profitably expire. But Nadella\u2019s move suggests we have failed to fully appreciate AI because of our distaste for hype and celebratory media coverage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Many pundits aver that AI could fundamentally reshape human existence. But we have rarely seen the somber leader of a major corporation move so quickly and decisively in reaction to the news as Nadella did when Altman was fired.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Investors who followed our early-November suggestion to sell Microsoft\u2019s January $325 put option for about $9.50 and buy its January $350 call option for about $11.10 should take profits. The put was recently worth $1.30 and the call $30. Use the profits to establish a bigger Microsoft position\u2014provided you can hold the stock for three to five years, and ideally longer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">With Microsoft\u2019s stock at $373.07, investors could sell the March $350 put for about $9.50 and buy the March $385 call for about $16.50. The risk-reversal strategy\u2014that is, selling a put and buying a call with a higher strike price and same expiration\u2014positions investors to buy the stock lower and to participate in gains above $385.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The March expiration provides time for investors to bullishly rerate Microsoft\u2019s stock and ponder the ultimate message of Nadella\u2019s bold move.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Originally Posted November 23, 2023 &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.barrons.com\/articles\/microsoft-ai-record-high-undervalued-stock-62afc60a?refsec=options&amp;mod=topics_options\">Microsoft Is Trading Near Its Record High. It\u2019s Still Undervalued.<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Investors should think of Microsoft as a red-hot stock that trades at a stodgy multiple.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":31,"featured_media":181926,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[6,19,8,9,22,26,3],"tags":[3598,1244,14385,1926,44],"contributors-categories":[13583],"class_list":["post-199357","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-north-america","category-options","category-region","category-securities","category-stocks","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-market-outlook","tag-microsoft","tag-option-trading","tag-options","tag-stocks","contributors-categories-barrons"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Microsoft Is Trading Near Its Record High. 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