{"id":199294,"date":"2023-11-22T08:11:39","date_gmt":"2023-11-22T13:11:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=199294"},"modified":"2024-01-24T13:54:08","modified_gmt":"2024-01-24T18:54:08","slug":"chart-advisor-examining-xvgs-structural-downtrend","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/chart-advisor-examining-xvgs-structural-downtrend\/","title":{"rendered":"Chart Advisor: Examining XVG&#8217;s Structural Downtrend"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>By&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/links.investopedia.com\/u\/click?_t=36ba8fa8372241d58b3bfc06997a4332&amp;_m=b17548e12b5c4f3b8cedb8493ef9df41&amp;_e=7mvK5Gn2Jm4L75LI4Sb24SIK8nb3eYTHH9Z6hG4OWc4ve5TZZNQsJ1o-dUk7B6cVeH8GNUwXq0UmT3XmLt5hK260wY16e_lLSsmlBMumktHJqKaXGEiW0u38HbEglr4elZIrX_5AJt69E8LOIULu5xG9x7JN8BzNTB5dSA2TF8y6erXAplrVHTsDxAQVpJmnT5zshIaGlPpux3G_Z0F9VoOxuo_NUty1Fn-RLuaSJ4HhR8e8JN0Tly5O0nK7FSElo_egKKt5Nw1ymfaj10B5QVipOZ0ipZrePeRonwAkzRdZO7nnfxzsh3uQaT3t666RWwjMIVHInTtZTHogG-hXnsdklUlzqZJi1iHjc8MQCxQbLTY2TfcCXcWnqNIAcLvrIUNdjRs1cGId_dQIc7RTnr5Ucz_akxyJRNKx7rkBGeDvtdyH6K6V5z4IMJ2IySyX\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Jeffrey W. Huge<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>1\/ Behold\u2026The Bull Market of 2023!<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>2\/&nbsp;The Elliott Wave Principle \u2014 Unplugged<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>3\/ Applied Elliott Wave Analysis<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Investopedia is partnering with CMT Association on this newsletter. &nbsp;The contents of this newsletter are for informational and educational purposes only, however, and do not constitute investing advice. The guest authors, which may sell research to investors, and may trade or hold positions in securities mentioned herein do not represent the views of CMT Association or Investopedia. Please consult a financial advisor for investment recommendations and services.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-1-behold-the-bull-market-of-2023\">1\/ <strong>Behold\u2026The Bull Market of 2023!<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The Value Line Geometric Index (XVG) is widely regarded as one of the broadest measures of the U.S. stock market. It includes approximately 1,700 publicly traded companies in North America, whose constituents account for 90% of the revenue generated by all publicly traded companies in the U.S. Originally launched in 1961, the daily price change of this equally-weighted index represents the median price change of its components. After peaking on November 8, 2021, the XVG began an steady decline into its October 13, 2022 low. Since then, following a shallow recovery rally, the XVG traded in range before breaching trend support. The index is now in a structural downtrend, holding below prior trend support, its 200-day SMA, and its 200-week SMA. Indeed, its 200-week SMA (red) is also holding below its 200-day SMA (green). In short, the XVG is about flat for the year, and down 22% from its all-time high.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/11\/1-24.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-199295 lazyload\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-2-the-elliott-wave-principle-unplugged\">2\/ <strong>The Elliott Wave Principle \u2014 Unplugged<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The Elliott Wave principle, developed by accountant R.N. Elliott in the 1930s, is an interdisciplinary framework utilizing concepts from the fields of Behavioral Economics, Mathematics, and Fractal Geometry that can be used to identify self-similar patterns in the price action of most&nbsp;publicly traded securities and broad&nbsp;market&nbsp;indexes in order to make probabilistic judgements about the current and&nbsp;future path of&nbsp;prices.&nbsp;According to Elliott, prices have only two wave&nbsp;modes: Motive and corrective. The motive wave defines the direction of the trend for&nbsp;prices and is labeled numerically [1-2-3-4-5]. The corrective mode is a countertrend interruption, which allows supply and demand to rebalance, and is labeled alphabetically [A-B-C].&nbsp;There are&nbsp;only&nbsp;two forms for&nbsp;motive waves: Impulse and diagonal. The impulse wave&nbsp;is the most common and always unfolds in&nbsp;five waves [5-3-5-3-5], making it easily identifiable. The diagonal can be of the \u201cleading\u201d variety in wave one,&nbsp;or of the \u201cending\u201d variety in wave five, and takes on a converging or expanding, wedge-like&nbsp;form. Corrective waves, on the other hand, come in eleven different forms including: zigzags, flats, and triangles, which usually unfold in three waves [5-3-5, or 3-3-3, and sometimes 3-3-5], or in the case of triangles, in five lateral waves of three [3-3-3-3-3]. Five waves in one direction are always followed by three waves in the opposite direction at the same degree of trend. As in life, progress occurs in fits and starts \u2013 three-steps forward, two-steps back.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/11\/2-10.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-199296 lazyload\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-3-applied-elliott-wave-analysis\">3\/ <strong>Applied Elliott Wave Analysis<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>If we apply the Elliott Wave Principle to the weekly chart of the Value Line Geometric Index beginning from the March 2020 low, we can observe five waves up at primary degree of trend [(1)-(2)-(3)-(4)-(5)]. A much longer-term view (not shown) reveals that the November 2021 high also terminated a five wave advance at cycle degree of trend as well [I-II-III-IV-V], and by extension, a third wave at supercycle degree of trend. From the November 2021 high we can then observe five waves down at intermediate degree of trend [1-2-3-4-5] into the October 2022 low to complete primary wave (A) down of a progressing three wave countertrend move of at least cycle degree of trend. The subsequent advance into the February 2023 high likely completed primary wave (B) up. If correct, then the choppy down-up, down-up wave progression since is probably a series of one\u2019s and two\u2019s [1-2, (i)-(ii)]. Under this rubric, the next directional move of significance will be minor wave (iii), of intermediate wave 3, of primary wave (C) down.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/11\/3-12.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-199297 lazyload\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Originally posted 22d November 2023<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Value Line Geometric Index (XVG) is widely regarded as one of the broadest measures of the U.S. stock market. It includes approximately 1,700 publicly traded companies in North America, whose constituents account for 90% of the revenue generated by all publicly traded companies in the U.S. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":186,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,6,9,22,23,26,3],"tags":[16284],"contributors-categories":[13686],"class_list":{"0":"post-199294","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-macro","7":"category-north-america","8":"category-securities","9":"category-stocks","10":"category-technical-analysis","11":"category-text-articles","12":"category-traders-insight","13":"tag-xvg","14":"contributors-categories-investopedia"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Chart Advisor: Examining XVG&#8217;s Structural Downtrend<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The Value Line Geometric Index (XVG) is widely regarded as one of the broadest measures of the U.S. stock market. 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