Existing home sales plunged to their lowest pace in a generation last month, as elevated mortgage rates, lofty prices and low levels of inventory weighed on buying activity. October existing home sales fell 4.1% month-over-month (m\/m) to 3.79 million seasonally adjusted annualized units, weaker than expectations of 3.9 million and September\u2019s 3.95 million. Inventory did rise, however, as some sellers grew increasingly anxious about unloading their properties. Inventory rose 1.8% m\/m to 1.15 million but still down 5.7% year-over-year (y\/y).<\/p>\n\n\n\n Among residence types, single-family homes led the decline, with transactions down 4.2% m\/m. Condominiums and co-ops did offset some of the drop, however, with transactions down only 2.4%. Across regions, transactions in the South, Northeast and West decreased 7.1%, 4% and 1.4%, respectively. The Midwest came in unchanged, meanwhile.<\/p>\n\n\n\n I believe the recovery is around the corner for residential real estate, as buyers are determined to own residences in the United States despite sky-high costs. I\u2019m expecting continued relief concerning inventory and mortgage rates as the Fed begins cutting rates in the first half of next year, opening up credit availability and lowering interest expenses. Prices are likely to soften by 4% in 2024, which together with higher inventory and lower mortgage rates will drive transactions much higher.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Retailers\u2019 earnings reports released this morning depict weakening consumer spending and a potentially disappointing holiday shopping season as illustrated by the following examples:<\/p>\n\n\n\n Stocks are down across the board with tech and smallcaps leading the way lower. Bonds are going the other way, however, with market players scooping up bonds in efforts to lock in the yields of the moment. All U.S. major indices are lower with the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite and small-cap, cyclically tilted Russell 2000 down 0.9% each. The declines in the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial indices aren\u2019t as bad, with the baskets down 0.4% and 0.3%. Sectoral breadth is negative, with almost all sectors lower led by technology and consumer discretionary, they\u2019re down 1% and 0.7%. Materials and health care are higher, meanwhile, with the groups up 0.6% and 0.4%. In fixed-income land, the 2- and 10-year Treasury maturities are trading at 4.88% and 4.4%, as the instruments are offering lower yields by 3 and 2 basis points (bps) each. Lighter yields and cozier Fed easing expectations are weighing on the dollar, with the greenback\u2019s index down 11 bps to 103.33. Crude oil is down 0.5% or $0.37 per barrel to $77.18, as weak economic data hampers the demand outlook despite Riyadh and Moscow\u2019s extended production cuts into 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Looking ahead, this afternoon will feature minutes from the latest Fed meeting followed by a huge earnings report from Nvidia. Bulls are looking for dovish tilts in the minutes and blockbuster projections concerning AI and chip demand from Nvidia. Bears, meanwhile, are looking for a higher-for-longer melody from the Fed, with FOMC members possibly concerned that reduced hawkishness will propel a fresh leg higher in inflationary pressures. As for Nvidia, bears are hoping that good news from the earnings call is already priced in, off the back of a breathtaking rally in which the S&P 500 Index rose 11% in roughly three weeks. Indeed, markets have a way of catching both bulls and bears offsides.<\/p>\n\n\n\n![\"existing](\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/11\/Picture1-3-1100x800.png\")
<\/figure>\n\n\n\nRetailers Reflect Consumer Stress<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
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Markets Players Trade Stocks for Bonds<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Fed Minutes, Nvidia Earnings Ahead<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n