{"id":199182,"date":"2023-11-20T10:30:00","date_gmt":"2023-11-20T15:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=199182"},"modified":"2023-11-20T13:43:05","modified_gmt":"2023-11-20T18:43:05","slug":"weekly-market-recap-november-20-2023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/weekly-market-recap-november-20-2023\/","title":{"rendered":"Weekly Market Recap: November 20, 2023"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-week-in-review\">The week in review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Headline CPI was unchanged m\/m and rose 3.2% y\/y in Oct.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Retail sales fell 0.1% m\/m in Oct.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Industrial production declined 0.6% m\/m in Oct.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-week-ahead\">The week ahead<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>FOMC minutes<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Prelim. Markit PMIs<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-thought-of-the-week\">Thought of the Week<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>It\u2019s not even Thanksgiving yet, but the holiday spending rush has already begun. The National Retail Federation is forecasting holiday spending growth of 3-4% from 2022, totaling between $957.3-$966.6 billion. This represents a normalization in holiday consumption growth to the pre-pandemic average of 3.6% y\/y from 2010-19 after the last three years that were impacted by government stimulus. Higher prices and dwindling savings are putting pressure on consumers, but household balance sheets and debt service ratios remain healthy overall. However, holiday spending plans vary significantly between income groups. High-income households still have considerable savings, and those earning +$200K annually are expected to spend 22% more than last year according to Deloitte. Lower-income shoppers may have already depleted their savings but will likely hunt for discounts, use more \u201cbuy now, pay later\u201d options and rely on credit to continue spending.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Despite expectations for solid holiday spending growth, consumer companies need to be strategic given building headwinds such as increased difficulty in obtaining credit and lower consumer confidence. Those offering discounts and adapting to changes in customer preferences will likely see strong earnings results in 4Q.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Looking ahead, consumption is likely to soften further following October\u2019s retail sales decline of 0.1% m\/m. More \u201cnormal\u201d consumer spending activity in November and December could be favorable for markets and allow the Fed to cut rates earlier in 2024. While investors may want to wait for more data on how the economy is performing, slowly adding exposure to longer duration fixed income and equities is still prudent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"436\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/11\/Screenshot-2023-11-20-081805-1100x436.png\" alt=\"Holiday sales growth is set to return to its pre-pandemic pace\" class=\"wp-image-199184 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/11\/Screenshot-2023-11-20-081805-1100x436.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/11\/Screenshot-2023-11-20-081805-700x278.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/11\/Screenshot-2023-11-20-081805-300x119.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/11\/Screenshot-2023-11-20-081805-768x305.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/11\/Screenshot-2023-11-20-081805.png 1266w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/436;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"622\" height=\"142\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/11\/Screenshot-2023-11-20-082204.png\" alt=\"Chart of the week and Though of the week sources\" class=\"wp-image-199185 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/11\/Screenshot-2023-11-20-082204.png 622w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/11\/Screenshot-2023-11-20-082204-300x68.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 622px) 100vw, 622px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 622px; aspect-ratio: 622\/142;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u2014<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Originally Posted November 20, 2023 \u2013&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/am.jpmorgan.com\/us\/en\/asset-management\/adv\/insights\/market-insights\/market-updates\/weekly-market-recap\/\">Weekly Market Recap<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Past performance does not guarantee future results.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Diversification does not guarantee investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of financial market trends, which are based on current market conditions. We believe the information provided here is reliable, but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The views and strategies described may not be appropriate for all investors. This material has been prepared for informational purposes only, and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice. References to future returns are not promises or even estimates of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Market Insights program provides comprehensive data and commentary on global markets without reference to products. Designed as a tool to help clients understand the markets and support investment decision-making, the program explores the implications of current economic data and changing market conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The J.P. Morgan Asset Management Market Insights and Portfolio Insights programs, as non-independent research, have not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, nor are they subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature<br>or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from J.P. Morgan Asset Management or any of its subsidiaries to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professional, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>J.P. Morgan Asset Management is the brand for the asset management business of JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. and its affiliates worldwide.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Telephone calls and electronic communications may be monitored and\/or recorded.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Personal data will be collected, stored and processed by J.P. Morgan Asset Management in accordance with our privacy policies at https:\/\/www.jpmorgan.com\/privacy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This communication is issued in the United States, by J.P. Morgan Investment Management Inc. or J.P. Morgan Alternative Asset Management, Inc., both regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If you are a person with a disability and need additional support in viewing the material, please call us at 1-800-343-1113 for assistance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Copyright 2023 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><sup>\u00a9<\/sup>JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., November 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Unless otherwise stated, all data is as of November 20, 2023 or as of most recently available<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>While investors may want to wait for more data on how the economy is performing, slowly adding exposure to longer duration fixed income and equities is still prudent.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":186,"featured_media":199184,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[1685,2298],"contributors-categories":[13608],"class_list":{"0":"post-199182","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-macro","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-region","10":"category-securities","11":"category-text-articles","12":"category-traders-insight","13":"tag-macro","14":"tag-market-recap","15":"contributors-categories-j-p-morgan-asset-management"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.5) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Weekly Market Recap: November 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