{"id":198634,"date":"2023-11-03T12:27:08","date_gmt":"2023-11-03T16:27:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=198634"},"modified":"2023-11-03T15:10:34","modified_gmt":"2023-11-03T19:10:34","slug":"yay-fewer-jobs-plus-when-the-biggest-growth-stock-doesnt-grow","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/yay-fewer-jobs-plus-when-the-biggest-growth-stock-doesnt-grow\/","title":{"rendered":"Yay, Fewer Jobs &#8211; Plus, When the Biggest Growth Stock Doesn&#8217;t Grow"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Markets are on perpetual watch for an appearance of Goldilocks, and she might have made an appearance this morning.&nbsp;This morning\u2019s employment report was &#8220;not too hot, not too cold.&#8221; Meanwhile, Apple (AAPL), our flagship growth stock, reported its fourth consecutive quarter with declining year-over-year revenues. For different reasons, both events have great relevance for markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bond traders loved this morning&#8217;s payrolls report, plain and simple.&nbsp;In October, Nonfarm Payrolls rose by 150,000, less than the 180k consensus, while last month&#8217;s reading was revised down by 39k to 297k. The unemployment rate ticked up slightly to 3.9%, 0.1% over the consensus estimate and last month\u2019s reading.&nbsp;Perhaps most importantly for those who are on inflation watch &#8211; essentially everyone &#8211; Average Hourly Earnings grew 0.2% on a month-over-month basis, below the 0.3% consensus.&nbsp;Last month\u2019s reading was revised up from 0.2% to 0.3%, meaning that that year-over-year reading of 4.1% exceeded the 4.0% estimate, but that is at best a minor quibble in the larger argument.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The reaction from the bond market was swift and severe.&nbsp;Yields fell across the curve by about 13-15 basis points.&nbsp;The 10-year yield of 4.53% is now 30bp below where it closed last week and 40bp off its level on Tuesday.&nbsp;That is a stunning move by any standards, but the 15bp drop in the 2-year rate is perhaps more meaningful right now.&nbsp;It tells us that traders see a greater likelihood of rate cuts in the near future.&nbsp;Fed Funds futures now show only a 10% chance for a hike by January, down from 32% just yesterday and from 41% immediately prior to Wednesday\u2019s FOMC meeting.&nbsp;They now fully anticipate a cut at the June meeting, up from July, and they show a year-end 2024 rate of 4.37%, down from 4.67% earlier this week.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Liquidity-loving equity traders responded as one might expect, with a rally.&nbsp;The S&amp;P 500 (SPX) and NASDAQ 100 (NDX) are both up just under 1% as I write this, but the real star is the Russell 2000 (RTY), which is up over 2.5%. That outperformance is all about hopes that lower rates will bring easier credit conditions for the the myriad unprofitable companies within RTY.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Although the small-cap companies are more economically sensitive than their large-cap counterparts, and thus should suffer if the economy appears to be weakening, the prolonged underperformance of RTY has already priced in those concerns.&nbsp;And among those concerns are fears that the &#8220;tighter financial and credit conditions for households and businesses&#8221; referenced in the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/newsevents\/pressreleases\/monetary20231101a.htm\">recent FOMC statement<\/a>&nbsp;will force unprofitable companies to face&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2023-11-01\/fear-of-zombies-creates-bubble-in-companies-that-can-pay-bills?sref=UQoV8r0O\">worries about their access to credit<\/a>.&nbsp;Even a whiff of easier financial conditions can lead to a big rise in RTY.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The current restrictive monetary conditions have led investors to favor companies with stable earnings and cash flows, and hence less need to borrow at high rates.&nbsp;The poster child for that type of company is Apple (AAPL), which is one of the few high-profile stocks that are trading lower today.&nbsp;Although AAPL reported EPS of $1.46, above the $1.39 consensus, concerns about sales in China weighed on investor perceptions.&nbsp;But for AAPL, investors should be concerned about sales overall.&nbsp;Although total revenues rose sequentially, breaking a three-quarter downtrend, this was the fourth quarter in a row when revenues fell on a year-over-year basis.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Quite frankly, it is hard to reckon with a growth stock whose sales aren\u2019t growing.&nbsp;AAPL is a cash-generating machine, with over $20 billion in positive cash flow every quarter.&nbsp;&nbsp;That has led to a cash hoard of over $160bn.&nbsp;With short-term rates at 5%, that can be a significant contributor to the company\u2019s bottom line, but investors aren\u2019t paying 28X earnings for a company with no revenue growth and only modest EPS growth.&nbsp;AAPL earned $6.13 per share in 2023 (it\u2019s fiscal year just ended); it earned $6.11 in 2022.&nbsp;Is that a growth stock? It will take some time for the market to decide whether to reclassify AAPL as a value stock.&nbsp;But I\u2019ve come to think of it as almost a utility &#8211; I shell out a few dollars each month for iCloud and Apple TV, and many more dollars every few years to upgrade my iPhone.&nbsp;AAPL is far less boring than a typical utility stock &#8211; and far less regulated.&nbsp;But a re-rating of the stock with the largest market capitalization would be an existential drag on the indices that AAPL sits atop.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Markets are on perpetual watch for an appearance of Goldilocks, and she might have made an appearance this morning. This morning&#8217;s employment report was &#8220;not too hot, not too cold.&#8221; Meanwhile, Apple (AAPL), our flagship growth stock, reported its fourth consecutive quarter with declining year-over-year revenues. For different reasons, both events have great relevance for markets.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":110838,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14700,6,8,9,22,26,3],"tags":[155,264,2255,45,314,11702,6099,3598,44,4919],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-198634","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-market-insights","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-region","10":"category-securities","11":"category-stocks","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"tag-aapl","15":"tag-apple","16":"tag-bond-yields","17":"tag-bonds","18":"tag-fomc","19":"tag-growth-stock","20":"tag-job-market","21":"tag-market-outlook","22":"tag-stocks","23":"tag-tech-stocks","24":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Yay, Fewer Jobs &#8211; Plus, When the Biggest Growth Stock Doesn&#8217;t Grow<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Markets are on perpetual watch for an appearance of Goldilocks, and she might have made an appearance this morning.\u00a0This morning\u2019s employment report...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/198634\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Yay, Fewer Jobs - Plus, When the Biggest Growth Stock Doesn&#039;t Grow | IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Markets are on perpetual watch for an appearance of Goldilocks, and she might have made an appearance this morning.\u00a0This morning\u2019s employment report was &quot;not too hot, not too cold.&quot; Meanwhile, Apple (AAPL), our flagship growth stock, reported its fourth consecutive quarter with declining year-over-year revenues. 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