{"id":198291,"date":"2023-10-26T11:45:00","date_gmt":"2023-10-26T15:45:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=198291"},"modified":"2023-10-26T13:02:59","modified_gmt":"2023-10-26T17:02:59","slug":"mr-market-plays-survivor-amzn-expectations","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/options\/mr-market-plays-survivor-amzn-expectations\/","title":{"rendered":"Mr. Market Plays Survivor + AMZN Expectations"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Allow me to propose a game show scenario.&nbsp; Seven companies spend several months in a secluded mansion, pampered, feted, and largely impervious to events that go on outside their cloister.&nbsp; Real-world events are tense, but not for those in the chateau.&nbsp; Then, each has to make a presentation to a faceless set of global voters, all of whom anonymously vote whether the company gets to remain in the club.&nbsp; It doesn\u2019t sound like a particularly scintillating show, but it is an all-too nerve-wracking reality for those trading the \u201cMagnificent Seven\u201d stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Markets, of course, are never as clear-cut as a reality TV show.&nbsp; Over the past few days, <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/options\/what-if-the-mag-seven-becomes-the-big-five-its-metas-turn\/\">yesterday<\/a> and <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/will-a-fantastic-four-power-the-magnificent-seven\/\">Monday<\/a>, in particular, we have wondered what the consequences might be if the \u201cMagnificent Seven\u201d was whittled down to a \u201cBig Five\u201d or \u201cFantastic Four.\u201d&nbsp; It is an important consideration after the adverse reactions to Tesla (TSLA) and Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL) earnings over recent days.&nbsp; It is far too early to know with any certainty whether either of those companies has been booted off the proverbial island, though.&nbsp; Given the unique mindshare that TSLA occupies (it is typically by far the most actively traded stock on the IBKR platform) and GOOGL\u2019s enormous power in search related advertising, it is highly unlikely that investors have completely soured on either company.&nbsp; The key for investors is whether these companies and their mega-cap tech peers can maintain their valuation premia and outperformance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The latest disappointment came yesterday from Meta Platforms (META).&nbsp; This is a case of a stock beating its published expectations but offering poor guidance during its conference call.&nbsp; The stock fell about 4% yesterday on pre-earnings jitters as the broader market sank, then rallied 5% after the number, only to fall over 5% shortly after the call.&nbsp; <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/options\/what-if-the-mag-seven-becomes-the-big-five-its-metas-turn\/\">Yesterday we highlighted<\/a> the stock\u2019s propensity for double-digit percentage post-earnings moves.&nbsp; We haven\u2019t seen one on a close-to-close basis \u2013 the stock is down -4% as I write this \u2013 but a 10% head fake in the course of a couple of hours is indeed noteworthy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Now we look ahead to Amazon (AMZN) earnings after today\u2019s close.&nbsp; The stock fell over -5.5% yesterday after the market decided to focus on GOOGL\u2019s miss in cloud computing rather than Microsoft\u2019s (MSFT).&nbsp; After this week\u2019s volatility, options traders are pricing in adequate, if not risk-averse, levels of implied volatility for at-money options expiring tomorrow.&nbsp; We see 10.5% daily volatility, which is above the 6-month average of 8.65%&nbsp; (+8.27%, -3.98%, -8.43%, -6.8%, +10.36%, -14.05%):<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-amzn-volatility-term-structure-expressed-in-daily-percentage-terms\"><strong><em>AMZN \u2013 Volatility Term Structure, Expressed in Daily Percentage Terms<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"752\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/10\/Picture4-5-1100x752.png\" alt=\"AMZN \u2013 Volatility Term Structure, Expressed in Daily Percentage Terms\" class=\"wp-image-198296 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/10\/Picture4-5-1100x752.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/10\/Picture4-5-700x478.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/10\/Picture4-5-300x205.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/10\/Picture4-5-768x525.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/10\/Picture4-5.png 1522w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/752;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Source: Interactive Brokers<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Meanwhile, the IBKR Probability Lab shows modest risk aversion.&nbsp; The peak probability is in the $114-$116 range, which is about -3.5% below the current $119 level:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-ibkr-probability-lab-for-amzn-options-expiring-october-27th\"><em>IBKR Probability Lab for AMZN Options Expiring October 27th<\/em><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"460\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/10\/Picture3-9-1100x460.png\" alt=\"IBKR Probability Lab for AMZN Options Expiring October 27th\" class=\"wp-image-198295 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/10\/Picture3-9-1100x460.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/10\/Picture3-9-700x293.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/10\/Picture3-9-300x125.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/10\/Picture3-9-768x321.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/10\/Picture3-9.png 1498w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/460;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Source: Interactive Brokers<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The skew is a bit snake-like, with a notable bump in at-money implied volatilities for this Friday\u2019s options rather than the more typical asymmetrical \u201c<a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/should-we-say-goodbye-to-the-elvis-smile\/\">Elvis smile<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-amzn-skew-for-options-expiring-october-27-th-nbsp-green-november-3-rd-nbsp-blue-november-17-th-nbsp-yellow\"><em>AMZN: Skew for Options Expiring October 27<sup>th<\/sup><\/em><em>&nbsp;<\/em><em>(green), November 3<sup>rd<\/sup><\/em><em>&nbsp;<\/em><em>(blue), November 17<sup>th<\/sup><\/em><em>&nbsp;<\/em><em>(yellow)<\/em><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"996\" height=\"592\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/10\/Picture2-13.png\" alt=\"AMZN: Skew for Options Expiring October 27th\u00a0(green), November 3rd\u00a0(blue), November 17th\u00a0(yellow)\" class=\"wp-image-198294 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/10\/Picture2-13.png 996w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/10\/Picture2-13-700x416.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/10\/Picture2-13-300x178.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/10\/Picture2-13-768x456.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 996px) 100vw, 996px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 996px; aspect-ratio: 996\/592;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Source: Interactive Brokers<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Let\u2019s face it \u2013 this has been a harrowing week for many tech-heavy portfolios.&nbsp; We still see the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) at levels that typically don\u2019t indicate panicky levels of demand for volatility protection from institutions.&nbsp; That said, we now see some fairly pronounced backwardation in the VIX futures curve, which indicates excess demand for short-term volatility.&nbsp; <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/inversion-and-dis-inversion-vix-and-bonds\/\">Last week we wrote<\/a> about <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/inversion-and-dis-inversion-vix-and-bonds\/\">the significance of an inverted VIX futures curve<\/a>.&nbsp; The situation rectified itself earlier this week but has reappeared today.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Traders are wary, and if they\u2019ve lost their last safe haven (the Magnificent Seven), the tone of the market over the coming weeks will likely reflect that wariness.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-vix-futures-term-structure-today-green-yesterday-orange-last-week-blue\"><strong><em>VIX Futures Term Structure, Today (green), Yesterday (orange), Last Week (blue)<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"569\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/10\/Picture1-28-1100x569.png\" alt=\"VIX Futures Term Structure, Today (green), Yesterday (orange), Last Week (blue)\" class=\"wp-image-198293 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/10\/Picture1-28-1100x569.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/10\/Picture1-28-700x362.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/10\/Picture1-28-300x155.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/10\/Picture1-28-768x397.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/10\/Picture1-28.png 1491w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/569;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Source: Bloomberg<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Over the past few days, yesterday and Monday, in particular, we have wondered what the consequences might be if the &#8220;Magnificent Seven&#8221; was whittled down to a &#8220;Big Five&#8221; or &#8220;Fantastic Four.&#8221;\u00a0Now we look ahead to Amazon (AMZN) earnings after today&#8217;s close.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":107381,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[14700,6,19,8,9,22,26,3],"tags":[148,267,15439,1926],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":["post-198291","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-ibkr-market-insights","category-north-america","category-options","category-region","category-securities","category-stocks","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-amazon","tag-earnings","tag-magnificent-seven","tag-options","contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.5) - 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