{"id":198244,"date":"2023-10-25T12:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-10-25T16:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=198244"},"modified":"2023-10-25T15:56:26","modified_gmt":"2023-10-25T19:56:26","slug":"what-if-the-mag-seven-becomes-the-big-five-its-metas-turn","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/options\/what-if-the-mag-seven-becomes-the-big-five-its-metas-turn\/","title":{"rendered":"What if the Mag Seven Becomes the Big Five?\u00a0 + It&#8217;s Meta&#8217;s Turn"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Earlier this week, ahead of the flurry of mega-cap earnings, we asked the question, \u201c<a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/will-a-fantastic-four-power-the-magnificent-seven\/\">will a \u201cFantastic Four\u201d power the \u201cMagnificent Seven<\/a>\u201d?&nbsp; So far, after two of the four reported after yesterday\u2019s close, the answer is a clear \u201cnot yet.\u201d&nbsp; And ahead of tonight\u2019s earnings from Meta Platforms (META), the more important question is what might happen if the roster of seven stocks shrinks?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In the piece referenced above, <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/will-a-fantastic-four-power-the-magnificent-seven\/\">we noted<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>My concern is that if we somehow remove constituents from the \u201cMagnificent Seven,\u201d turning it into a \u201cSuper Six,\u201d \u201cFab Five,\u201d or \u201cFantastic Four,\u201d it would place an even greater importance upon a shrinking list of outperformers, revealing deterioration in the climate for equities and increasing fragility<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">With Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL) dropping about -9% this morning and Tesla (TSLA) remaining about -15% below its pre-earnings level, that concern seems even more relevant.&nbsp; Microsoft (MSFT) delivered a solid beat on multiple fronts, but the broad market malaise has dampened today\u2019s gains to only +2.5%.&nbsp; It is certainly too early to declare that GOOGL and TSLA have been voted out the Magnificent Seven, but ahead of META today and Amazon (AMZN) tomorrow, the question about whether the fraternity is shrinking becomes ever-more relevant.<a href=\"#_edn1\" id=\"_ednref1\">[i]<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It certainly appears that the options market has a healthy regard for META risk today.&nbsp; It should, considering that the stock had double-digit percentage moves in both directions after 5 of its last 7 earnings reports (+4.4%, +13.93%, +23.38%, -24.56%, -5.22%, +17.59%, -26.39%).&nbsp; At-money implied volatilities for options expiring on Friday are above 9% daily, though that is well below that recent 16.5% average:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-meta-volatility-term-structure-expressed-in-daily-percentage-terms\"><strong><em>META \u2013 Volatility Term Structure, Expressed in Daily Percentage Terms<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"744\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/10\/Picture3-8-1100x744.png\" alt=\"META \u2013 Volatility Term Structure, Expressed in Daily Percentage Terms\" class=\"wp-image-198247 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/10\/Picture3-8-1100x744.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/10\/Picture3-8-700x473.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/10\/Picture3-8-300x203.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/10\/Picture3-8-768x519.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/10\/Picture3-8.png 1514w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/744;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Source: Interactive Brokers<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Not surprisingly, the IBKR Probability Lab shows a wide dispersion around its peak probability levels.\u00a0 Essentially the market is saying that any outcome between 288 and 320 is of roughly equal likelihood:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-ibkr-probability-lab-for-meta-options-expiring-october-27th\"><em>IBKR Probability Lab for META Options Expiring October 27th<\/em><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"461\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/10\/Picture2-12-1100x461.png\" alt=\"IBKR Probability Lab for META Options Expiring October 27th\" class=\"wp-image-198246 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/10\/Picture2-12-1100x461.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/10\/Picture2-12-700x293.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/10\/Picture2-12-300x126.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/10\/Picture2-12-768x322.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/10\/Picture2-12.png 1494w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/461;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Source: Interactive Brokers<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Skew for front-week options is relatively similar to those of next week\u2019s and next month\u2019s expirations.&nbsp; As we saw yesterday, there is a floor well above the current price, though here we see a flattish region just below the current market price.&nbsp; That fits with the probability chart:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-meta-skew-for-options-expiring-october-27-th-nbsp-dark-blue-november-3-rd-nbsp-light-blue-november-17-th-nbsp-yellow\"><em>META: Skew for Options Expiring October 27<sup>th<\/sup><\/em><em>&nbsp;<\/em><em>(dark blue), November 3<sup>rd<\/sup><\/em><em>&nbsp;<\/em><em>(light blue), November 17<sup>th<\/sup><\/em><em>&nbsp;<\/em><em>(yellow)<\/em><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"992\" height=\"600\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/10\/Picture1-26.png\" alt=\"META: Skew for Options Expiring October 27th\u00a0(dark blue), November 3rd\u00a0(light blue), November 17th\u00a0(yellow)\" class=\"wp-image-198245 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/10\/Picture1-26.png 992w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/10\/Picture1-26-700x423.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/10\/Picture1-26-300x181.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/10\/Picture1-26-768x465.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 992px) 100vw, 992px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 992px; aspect-ratio: 992\/600;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Source: Interactive Brokers<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Of course, we can\u2019t know now how META will react to this afternoon\u2019s report and whether they will prove consequential for the stock\u2019s investors.&nbsp; But whether or not you have a position in META, you should pay attention.&nbsp; If the company performs well and the stock is rewarded, then we can continue hoping that a small cadre of mega-cap tech stocks can drive major indices higher.&nbsp; If the company fails to deliver, or worse, the market punishes META for even in-line results, that is an ominous sign about market sentiment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"#_ednref1\" id=\"_edn1\">[i]<\/a> I realize that I switched nomenclature from \u201cFab Five\u201d to \u201cBig Five.\u201d&nbsp; My regard for Philadelphia college basketball is far greater than that for Michigan\u2019s.&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ahead of tonight\u2019s earnings from Meta Platforms (META), the more important question is what might happen if the roster of seven stocks shrinks?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":193413,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[14700,6,19,8,9,22,26,3],"tags":[267,15439,10568,12314],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":["post-198244","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-ibkr-market-insights","category-north-america","category-options","category-region","category-securities","category-stocks","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-earnings","tag-magnificent-seven","tag-meta","tag-tech-stock","contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast 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