{"id":197949,"date":"2023-10-20T11:30:00","date_gmt":"2023-10-20T15:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=197949"},"modified":"2023-10-20T12:32:45","modified_gmt":"2023-10-20T16:32:45","slug":"have-inverted-yield-curves-lost-their-way","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/fixed-income\/have-inverted-yield-curves-lost-their-way\/","title":{"rendered":"Have Inverted Yield Curves Lost Their Way?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

With all the attention given to the recent surge in Treasury (UST) yields<\/a>, there has been an interesting by-product in the process: steepening yield curves. Remember when inverted yield curves<\/a> were all the rage, and their historical track record was being highlighted as a sure sign of an eventual recession? Well, here we are, many months since the curves went into negative territory, but as yet, still no recession<\/a>. Does that mean inverted curves have lost their way?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Treasury Yield Curves<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\"U.S.<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Let\u2019s take a look at the two most widely followed yield constructs: UST 3mo\/10yr and UST 2yr\/10yr. Both these curves went into inverted, or negative, territory last year, but at different times. The 2yr\/10yr spread moved below zero consistently at the end of June, while the 3mo\/10yr differential hit the minus column during the fall of 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Since then, both these constructs had been on a one-way trip into deeper and deeper negative territory. Indeed, the degree of inversion has been historical in nature, with the 2s\/10s dropping to a nadir of -109 basis points (bps)<\/a> in March and the 3mo\/10yr plunging to its low point of -191 bps in May. While Treasury yields in general have been on the rise, the inverted nature of the curves was due primarily to the Fed\u2019s<\/a> Volcker<\/a>-esque rate hikes. Indeed, the policy makers were pushing the Fed Funds target range<\/a> up to levels not seen since the early 2000s, raising short-term rates such as the 3-month t-bill<\/a> and the UST 2-Year note along with it. Meanwhile, the increase in the 10-Year yield could not keep pace\u2026hence the deep inversions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now let\u2019s fast forward to the present. While the Fed has been keeping the Fed Funds target range at 5.25%\u20135.50%, the 10-Year yield has surged. To provide some perspective, the UST 10-Year has experienced a roughly 100 bps increase since mid-July, with 60\u201370 bps of this rise occurring within the last six weeks. As a result, the aforementioned yield curves have steepened dramatically. For example, the 2s\/10s inversion shrunk by 80 bps to only -28 bps following the jobs report, while the 3mo\/10yr negative spread had re-steepened by an incredible 120 bps to -71 bps. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Back to the inverted yield curves\u2019 forecast ability. A lot has been written about the impressive track record of inverted yield curves predicting past recessions. As a student of history, one needs to respect that. Interestingly, the U.S. economy did post back-to-back negative real GDP readings during Q1 and Q2 last year. However, that was prior to the curves discussed here going negative.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Conclusion<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Where does that leave us, looking ahead? Well, as I mentioned in the opening, the U.S. economy has thus far avoided a downturn, and available data suggests a recession does not appear to be imminent either. So, just like a lot of other things lately, where the timing keeps getting pushed back, could a negative quarter or two of real GDP<\/a> become a 2024 development? Even though Treasury yield curves have dramatically steepened, the two constructs highlighted in this blog post still remain inverted and past Fed tightening policies rarely achieved a soft landing. To quote Yogi Berra, \u201cit ain\u2019t over till it\u2019s over.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

—<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Originally Posted October 18, 2023 – Have Inverted Yield Curves Lost Their Way?<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The U.S. economy has been resilient despite the inverted yield curves, but is it too early to celebrate? Kevin Flanagan discusses how the recent surge in the UST 10-Year yield has changed the shape of the curves and what it means for the future of the economy.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":54,"featured_media":197950,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[15,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[592,9275],"contributors-categories":[13638],"class_list":{"0":"post-197949","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-fixed-income","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-region","10":"category-securities","11":"category-text-articles","12":"category-traders-insight","13":"tag-fixed-income","14":"tag-yield-curves","15":"contributors-categories-wisdomtree-u-s"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nHave Inverted Yield Curves Lost Their Way?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The U.S. economy has been resilient despite the inverted yield curves, but is it too early to celebrate? 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