{"id":197766,"date":"2023-10-17T12:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-10-17T16:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=197766"},"modified":"2023-10-17T13:10:19","modified_gmt":"2023-10-17T17:10:19","slug":"mr-market-does-like-mondays-at-least-lately","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/mr-market-does-like-mondays-at-least-lately\/","title":{"rendered":"Mr. Market DOES Like Mondays (At Least Lately)"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>(Today\u2019s theme music, courtesy of the Boomtown Rats, \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=VPtu5V3kHTM\">I Don\u2019t Like Mondays<\/a>\u201d)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Fifteen weeks in a row is one heck of a streak.&nbsp; NFL teams, which play once a week, have only exceeded that streak <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/List_of_National_Football_League_longest_winning_streaks\">10 times in the league\u2019s history<\/a>, so it was big news when the San Francisco 49\u2019ers 15-game regular season winning streak was broken on Sunday.&nbsp; Just one day later \u2013 yesterday \u2013 the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) put together a 15-week winning streak of its own.&nbsp; That is one heck of a stealth rally, and it\u2019s not clear why.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yes, it\u2019s true.&nbsp; SPX has not been down on a Monday since July 3<sup>rd<\/sup>.&nbsp; Granted, that day was a half-day ahead of the July 4<sup>th<\/sup> holiday, and we also skipped the first Monday in September for Labor Day.&nbsp; Also, we squeaked by with tiny gains some of those times, but as any coach will tell us, a win is a win.&nbsp; Here are the results over that timeframe:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"451\" height=\"494\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/10\/Picture2-5.png\" alt=\"SPX has not been down on a Monday since July 3rd.\" class=\"wp-image-197768 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/10\/Picture2-5.png 451w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/10\/Picture2-5-300x329.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 451px) 100vw, 451px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 451px; aspect-ratio: 451\/494;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The current streak is quite astounding, but it is clearly part of a larger pattern.&nbsp; So far in 2023, there have been 36 Mondays when the US markets have been open.&nbsp; (This excludes MLK Day, President\u2019s Day, Memorial Day and Juneteenth in addition to Labor Day.)&nbsp; An astounding 29 of those 36 Mondays have been higher \u2013 just over 80%!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"451\" height=\"1132\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/10\/Picture3-4.png\" alt=\"So far in 2023, there have been 36 Mondays when the US markets have been open.\u00a0\" class=\"wp-image-197769 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/10\/Picture3-4.png 451w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/10\/Picture3-4-300x753.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 451px) 100vw, 451px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 451px; aspect-ratio: 451\/1132;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We have noted on various occasions that <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/two-out-of-three-is-really-good\/\">traders love to find tradeable patterns<\/a>.&nbsp; Quite frankly, if something works 80% of the time, it is quite understandable for that pattern to persist \u2013 if for no other reason than that it becomes self-fulfilling.&nbsp; If enough people expect the market to go up on Mondays, then it probably will.&nbsp; The logic is sound, though circular.&nbsp; If there is an imbalance of aggressive buyers, that creates demand, and stocks move higher.&nbsp; The reason is not important.&nbsp; In markets, enough people believe that something will happen \u2013 regardless of why \u2013 the weight of money can force the outcome.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>(By the way, I was careful not to say there are more buyers than sellers.&nbsp; For every buy that gets executed, someone sells \u2013 and vice versa.&nbsp; The prices move because one side is more aggressive than the other.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Although the recent upside moves on Mondays have been quite consistent, this is a relatively recent phenomenon.&nbsp; Over the past 10 years, SPX has risen on about 53% of all trading sessions.&nbsp; Prior to this year that was also the case for Mondays over that period \u2013 about 53%.&nbsp; Also, the average daily move over the 10-year period was +0.065%, while Mondays (including this year) average 0.019%.&nbsp; In other words, the recent Monday outperformance is a recent phenomenon.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Frankly, I wish I knew why.&nbsp; I\u2019d love to be able to say that there is something I can point out that makes Mondays a better day than others.&nbsp; Maybe there is something about avoiding major trouble over the weekend that makes traders bullish on Mondays.&nbsp; That was certainly the case yesterday, but it hardly explains the vast majority of weeks this year.&nbsp; At this point, it is more likely either a statistical fluke or a self-fulfilling trading prophecy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Either way, the market is on a Monday roll.&nbsp; All streaks eventually get broken, but if we can\u2019t offer a great reason for the streak\u2019s occurrence, it is tough to suggest why this one will or won\u2019t continue.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Fifteen weeks in a row is one heck of a streak.\u00a0Yesterday, the S&#038;P 500 (SPX) rose for the 15th Monday in a row. That is one heck of a stealth rally, and it\u2019s not clear why.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":189144,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14700,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[3598,207,4109],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-197766","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-market-insights","8":"category-macro","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"tag-market-outlook","15":"tag-spx","16":"tag-stock-market","17":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Mr. Market DOES Like Mondays (At Least Lately)<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Fifteen weeks in a row is one heck of a streak.\u00a0Yesterday, the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) rose for the 15th Monday in a row. 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