{"id":197744,"date":"2023-10-18T10:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-10-18T14:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=197744"},"modified":"2023-10-18T11:31:55","modified_gmt":"2023-10-18T15:31:55","slug":"has-coffee-reached-a-major-low","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/commodities\/has-coffee-reached-a-major-low\/","title":{"rendered":"Has Coffee Reached a Major Low?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Since early June, coffee prices have seen a pattern in which a selloff to a new low has been followed by a period of consolidation and then a subsequent rally that could not be sustained. At Tuesday\u2019s low, December Coffee had declined 43.95 cents (23%) from its June 8 close. Since then, it has put together four positive days in a row and has rallied 11.95 cents. The market put in a positive daily reversal on Tuesday and a positive reversal on the weekly chart as well. The coffee market had been pressured by Brazil\u2019s production outlook, with their 2023\/24 \u201coff-year\u201d Arabica crop expected to come in 17% larger than 2022\/23\u2019s \u201con-year\u201d crop. However, the June\/October selloff may have made Brazilian growers and their potential buyers reluctant to complete deals, and this could be the reason why Brazilian exports were surprisingly low in September. Brazil\u2019s Arabica harvest is nearly finished, which will give the market a good idea of the potential size of Brazilian exports as their supply is drawn down over the next few months. Unlike Brazil, Colombia does not appear to have benefited much from the conclusion of the La Ni\u00f1a event early this year. Their September production came in at 854,000 bags, 1.5% above a year ago. However, their 12-month running production total (October 2022 to September 2023) was 10.617 million bags, only a slight increase from August\u2019s 12-month running total of 10.602 million, which was the lowest 12-month reading since October 2013. The Honduras Coffee Institute expects their nation\u2019s 2023\/24 coffee exports to be 6.6% below 2022\/23. Honduras is the largest Arabica producer in Central America and the fourth largest in the world. This does not bode well for Central American production this season. The coffee market has priced in Brazil\u2019s large crop, but this may not reflect production issues in Colombia and Central America.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"732\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/10\/Screenshot-2023-10-17-100213-1100x732.png\" alt=\"Colombia Coffee Production\" class=\"wp-image-197745 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/10\/Screenshot-2023-10-17-100213-1100x732.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/10\/Screenshot-2023-10-17-100213-700x466.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/10\/Screenshot-2023-10-17-100213-300x200.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/10\/Screenshot-2023-10-17-100213-768x511.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/10\/Screenshot-2023-10-17-100213.png 1311w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/732;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Source: Colombia Coffee Growers Federation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Originally Published October 13, 2023 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Since early June, coffee prices have seen a pattern in which a selloff to a new low has been followed by a period of consolidation and then a subsequent rally that could not be sustained. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":186,"featured_media":197745,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[21,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[429,483,147],"contributors-categories":[13645],"class_list":["post-197744","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-commodities","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-agriculture","tag-coffee","tag-commodities","contributors-categories-the-hightower-report"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.2) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Has Coffee Reached a Major Low? | 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