{"id":197575,"date":"2023-10-12T10:26:46","date_gmt":"2023-10-12T14:26:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=197575"},"modified":"2024-01-24T12:12:12","modified_gmt":"2024-01-24T17:12:12","slug":"chart-advisor-riding-mega-cap-highs","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/chart-advisor-riding-mega-cap-highs\/","title":{"rendered":"Chart Advisor: Riding Mega-Cap Highs"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

By Shane Murphy, CMT<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

1\/ Relative Strength<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

2\/ FANG+ Index Digesting Overhead Supply<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

3\/ Growth vs. Value<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

4\/ Asset Prices Are Not Normally Distributed<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investopedia is partnering with CMT Association on this newsletter.  The contents of this newsletter are for informational and educational purposes only, however, and do not constitute investing advice. The guest authors, which may sell research to investors, and may trade or hold positions in securities mentioned herein do not represent the views of CMT Association or Investopedia. Please consult a financial advisor for investment recommendations and services.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

1\/ Relative Strength<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s no secret that over 80% of the S&P 500 year-to-date return can be attributed to the top 10 stocks in the index. These behemoths are referred to as the mega<\/a>-caps<\/a>. If you lacked mega-cap exposure this year, your portfolio suffered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Mega-caps relative to the total US Stock Market (2,806 companies) are trading at fresh multi-year highs. Thus far in 2023, high tracking <\/a>error<\/a> is synonymous with under-performance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2\/ FANG+ Index Digesting Overhead Supply<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Taking a look at just the technology mega-caps, we review the NYSE FANG+ Index. This is an equal-weight index of the top 10 technology giants. The index recently formed new all-time highs in July and is trading well above an upward sloping 200-day moving<\/a> average<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The index is consolidating<\/a> and working through overhead supply. The price chart in recent months developed what technician\u2019s refer to as a bullish<\/a> flag<\/a> pattern. This pattern typically resolves in the direction of the primary trend, which in this case is higher.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

3\/ Growth vs. Value<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the mega-cap level, it\u2019s growth stocks that are <\/a>outperforming<\/a> value stocks<\/a>. The below price ratio chart highlights mega-cap growth vs. mega-cap value. The chart is still trading below the COVID pandemic highs but has reversed course in 2023, amidst growing optimism in the Artificial Intelligence space.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

4\/ Asset Prices Are Not Normally Distributed<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Asset prices do not follow a normal <\/a>distribution<\/a>. But investor\u2019s gain insight from indicators that assume normal distribution. Take the below chart for example. The blue line is a ratio chart comparing mega-caps to small-caps. The lower panel contains the Z-<\/a>score<\/a> indicator, which tells us how many standard deviations away from the mean price currently is.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Historically, when the 2-year Z-score reaches beyond +3, it has signaled a potential peak in mega-cap performance relative to small-caps. The current reading is +2.49, which is no small feat. We\u2019ve seen only 4 periods in last 10-years with mega-cap prices this stretched relative to small-caps.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

—<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Originally posted 12th October 2023<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

It\u2019s no secret that over 80% of the S&P 500 year-to-date return can be attributed to the top 10 stocks in the index. 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