{"id":197246,"date":"2023-10-05T12:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-10-05T16:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=197246"},"modified":"2023-10-05T13:12:19","modified_gmt":"2023-10-05T17:12:19","slug":"what-are-junk-bonds-telling-us","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/what-are-junk-bonds-telling-us\/","title":{"rendered":"What are junk bonds telling us?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-tldr\"><strong>TLDR:<\/strong> <\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Watch junk yields. They\u2019ll tell us if we\u2019re in a slow-moving recession or if things are still ok. For now, we\u2019re ok.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"732\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/10\/1_52e753efae-1100x732.jpg\" alt=\"US High Yield\" class=\"wp-image-197250 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/10\/1_52e753efae-1100x732.jpg 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/10\/1_52e753efae-700x466.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/10\/1_52e753efae-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/10\/1_52e753efae-768x511.jpg 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/10\/1_52e753efae.jpg 1196w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/732;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Source: Toggle AI<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Junk is an important asset class.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Called \u2018high yield\u2019 in polite society, junk bonds are the first in line when things go bad: they are practically equity packaged in bond format.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Considering how bad the market has treated Treasuries in the latest hiking cycle, junk has performed remarkably well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That\u2019s encouraging, as the range bound nature of these bonds makes them a natural beacon to assess value and risk in the market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The chart above shows junk\u2019s yield, therefore up = bad, down = good. As you can see, junk has been fairly unfazed by the recent selloff and you can draw one of two conclusions here:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Optimist conclusion: junk is telling us that the economy is not in such dire straits, therefore stocks sold-off too hard.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Pessimist conclusion: junk has not priced in the economic realities embedded in stocks, and will need to fall.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It\u2019s generally accepted that bonds are better at pricing short-term fundamentals than equities, because they focus on a simple short-term question: \u201care you going to pay my next coupons?\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So for the time being, we\u2019re going with the optimist conclusion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-what-s-happening-in-the-markets\">What&#8217;s happening in the markets?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><em>This section is powered by Open AI connected to TOGGLE AI<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In September, private payroll growth experienced a significant decline, as revealed by the ADP report released on Wednesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The report indicated a total job growth of 89,000 for the month, a considerable drop from the upwardly revised figure of 180,000 in August and falling below the economists&#8217; estimate of 160,000. Notably, the gains were primarily observed in service sectors like leisure and hospitality. Moreover, ADP reported a slowdown in annual wage growth, which stood at 5.9%, marking the 12th consecutive monthly decline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This report followed the unexpected surge in employment vacancies at US businesses revealed by the JOLTS survey a day prior.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Despite these findings, the official government tally is expected tomorrow, with economists estimating a nonfarm payroll increase of 170,000 for September, a decrease from the reported rise of 187,000 in August.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-aggregated-leading-indicators\">Aggregated Leading Indicators!<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"733\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/10\/spx_aggregated_RESTRICTED_3_2310bb70f5-1-1100x733.jpg\" alt=\"Aggregated Leading Indicators!\" class=\"wp-image-197249 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/10\/spx_aggregated_RESTRICTED_3_2310bb70f5-1-1100x733.jpg 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/10\/spx_aggregated_RESTRICTED_3_2310bb70f5-1-700x467.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/10\/spx_aggregated_RESTRICTED_3_2310bb70f5-1-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/10\/spx_aggregated_RESTRICTED_3_2310bb70f5-1-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/10\/spx_aggregated_RESTRICTED_3_2310bb70f5-1.jpg 1500w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/733;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/toggle.ai\/my-account\/subscription\">Subscribe to Pro here<\/a> to receive our pre-market Leading Indicator newsletter and access all Leading Indicators online!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Learn more about the Leading Indicators in the <a href=\"https:\/\/toggle.ai\/investing\">Learn Center<\/a>!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-earnings-update-levi-strauss-reports-tonight\">Earnings Update: <a href=\"https:\/\/toggle.ai\/earnings\/nyse-levi-2023-q3\">Levi Strauss<\/a> reports tonight<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"623\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/10\/2_da4cc07c41-1100x623.jpg\" alt=\"LEVI:NYSE\" class=\"wp-image-197248 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/10\/2_da4cc07c41-1100x623.jpg 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/10\/2_da4cc07c41-700x397.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/10\/2_da4cc07c41-300x170.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/10\/2_da4cc07c41-768x435.jpg 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/10\/2_da4cc07c41.jpg 1200w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/623;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>LEVI has a history of beating earnings expectations, delivering positive performance over the past 12 consecutive quarters but the stock has fallen in the subsequent week post earnings in the last 2.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Discover how other companies could react post earnings with the help of <a href=\"https:\/\/toggle.ai\/earnings\">TOGGLE&#8217;s WhatIF Earnings tool<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-asset-spotlight-is-carnival-corp-oversold\">Asset Spotlight: Is Carnival Corp oversold?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"563\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/10\/Carnival_Corporation_history_1_3d5a9fdc4c-1100x563.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-197247 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/10\/Carnival_Corporation_history_1_3d5a9fdc4c-1100x563.jpg 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/10\/Carnival_Corporation_history_1_3d5a9fdc4c-700x358.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/10\/Carnival_Corporation_history_1_3d5a9fdc4c-300x154.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/10\/Carnival_Corporation_history_1_3d5a9fdc4c-768x393.jpg 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/10\/Carnival_Corporation_history_1_3d5a9fdc4c-1536x787.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/10\/Carnival_Corporation_history_1_3d5a9fdc4c.jpg 1613w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/563;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Toggle analyzed 8 similar occasions in the past where entry point indicators for CCL indicated the stock could be oversold and historically this led to a median increase in the stock&#8217;s price over the following 6M. <a href=\"https:\/\/toggle.ai\/article\/fc1ec422-634e-11ee-a58a-320eb639445d\">Read full insight<\/a>!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-general-interest-what-happens-when-you-kick-the-mafia-out-of-city-hall\">General Interest: What happens when you kick the Mafia out of City Hall<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Since 1991 Italy had the power to shut down any city council where there is evidence of collusion between officials and criminal organizations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>More than 300 had been shuttered by April 2021 under the legislation, mostly but not exclusively in the southern regions of Campania, Calabria and Sicily.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Economists at Ca\u2019Foscari University of Venice have analyzed what happens afterwards in these municipalities. Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/toggle.ai\/article\/fc1ec422-634e-11ee-a58a-320eb639445d\">here<\/a> on FT Alphaville.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Originally Posted October 5, 2023 &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/toggle.ai\/daily-market-brief\/daily-brief-junk-bonds\">What are junk bonds telling us?<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Watch junk yields. They\u2019ll tell us if we\u2019re in a slow-moving recession or if things are still ok. For now, we\u2019re ok.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":186,"featured_media":197247,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[15,18,6,8,9,22,26,3],"tags":[592,2427,3598],"contributors-categories":[13768],"class_list":{"0":"post-197246","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-fixed-income","8":"category-macro","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-stocks","13":"category-text-articles","14":"category-traders-insight","15":"tag-fixed-income","16":"tag-junk-bonds","17":"tag-market-outlook","18":"contributors-categories-toggle-ai"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.5) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>What are junk bonds telling us? | Traders&#039; Insight<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Watch junk yields. 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