{"id":196755,"date":"2023-09-27T07:48:19","date_gmt":"2023-09-27T11:48:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=196755"},"modified":"2024-01-24T12:12:22","modified_gmt":"2024-01-24T17:12:22","slug":"chart-advisor-return-of-the-rising-rates","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/chart-advisor-return-of-the-rising-rates\/","title":{"rendered":"Chart Advisor: Return of the Rising Rates"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

By David Rath, CFA, CMT<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

1\/ 10-year Yield Resumes Uptrend<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

2\/ 20+ Year Treasury Bonds Gap Down<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

3\/ Credit Spreads Sanguine\u2026For Now<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investopedia is partnering with CMT Association on this newsletter.  The contents of this newsletter are for informational and educational purposes only, however, and do not constitute investing advice. The guest authors, which may sell research to investors, and may trade or hold positions in securities mentioned herein do not represent the views of CMT Association or Investopedia. Please consult a financial advisor for investment recommendations and services.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

1\/ 10-year Yield Resumes Uptrend<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Simplicity often trumps complexity. One need look no further than a weekly chart of the 10-year yield<\/a> which shows its ascent from the COVID bottom. For years prior to bottoming, I had heard about us entering a \u201crising rate environment\u201d without any sort of supporting evidence from the bond market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Markets don\u2019t move in a straight line. There are typically periods of advances\/declines and consolidations<\/a> (sideways or countertrend movements). The first pattern that emerged in this chart is an ascending triangle<\/a> which is a bullish trend continuation pattern. What followed was a descending triangle<\/a> given the lower highs and well-defined horizontal support zone<\/a>. Descending triangles are usually looked at as bearish continuations during a downtrend. However, in an uptrend, once the upper bound gets breached, it signals a resumption of that uptrend. The much-predicted \u201crising rate environment\u201d appears to be here.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2\/ 20+ Year Treasury Bonds Gap Down<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Few charts have traded \u201ccleaner\u201d in the past few years than the chart of the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT<\/a>). What I mean by \u201cclean\u201d is the tendency for the price action to respect horizontal boundaries set by supply and demand dynamics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Bonds are supposed to be the ballast of a diversified portfolio, but all who experienced last year will testify that that is not always the case. Long bonds rebounded from their October \u201822 lows only to hit their head on the ceiling established by the June \u201822 lows. Those October lows served as momentary support before recently experiencing a breakaway gap<\/a>, and they look to be continuing their decline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

3\/ Credit Spreads Sanguine\u2026For Now<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Often looked at as the canary in the coal mine for market stress, credit spreads<\/a> are not blinking in the face of our recent pullback in equity markets. Bond investors are sometimes looked at as the \u201csmart\u201d money due to their inherent reliance on a company or government paying back their principal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

When things get hairy, the lowest credit quality bonds (\u201cjunk bonds<\/a>\u201d) are usually the first to get sold which causes their yield<\/a> to rise faster than an identical Treasury bond. This causes the spread, or difference, between the two yields to increase. As seen in the accompanying chart, credit spreads are near their lows across a range of lower credit ratings. Contrast that with March when the regional banking crisis caused a sudden spike.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

—<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Originally posted 27th September 2023<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Markets don\u2019t move in a straight line. 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