{"id":196705,"date":"2023-09-26T07:59:17","date_gmt":"2023-09-26T11:59:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=196705"},"modified":"2024-01-24T12:12:23","modified_gmt":"2024-01-24T17:12:23","slug":"chart-advisor-weakening-euro-hits-multinationals","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/chart-advisor-weakening-euro-hits-multinationals\/","title":{"rendered":"Chart Advisor: Weakening Euro Hits Multinationals"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

By David Rath, CFA, CMT<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

1\/ Euro\u2019s Struggles<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

2\/ China\u2019s Optimism Short-lived<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

3\/ Germany Sees Bearish Development<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investopedia is partnering with CMT Association on this newsletter.  The contents of this newsletter are for informational and educational purposes only, however, and do not constitute investing advice. The guest authors, which may sell research to investors, and may trade or hold positions in securities mentioned herein do not represent the views of CMT Association or Investopedia. Please consult a financial advisor for investment recommendations and services.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

1\/ Euro\u2019s Struggles<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Comprising over 50% of the Dollar Index<\/a>, the Euro is where we want to focus our attention for clues about the Dollar. Earlier in the year, the EURUSD<\/a> had broken to new highs and Americans were reconsidering that European vacation they booked. The currency pair quickly reversed course in a false breakout<\/a> and has subsequently broken its uptrend<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Currently, the pair sits below its 200 Day Moving Average<\/a>, which is flattening out and runs the risk of sloping down. This currency pair has further implications than simply American\u2019s travel plans abroad – it also affects global conglomerates translating their profits back into dollars.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2\/ China\u2019s Optimism Short-lived<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A story that had good traction at the beginning of the year turned out to be more hope than substance. The hope was that China\u2019s relaxation of their COVID-era policies would spark growth in the economy and therefore help its stock market recover the losses seen from its 2021 highs. There is an old adage that says to \u201cbuy the rumor, sell the news.<\/a>\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

As represented by the iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI<\/a>), there was a 60% rally in just a few months as investors bought the rumor. Since the reopening, it has been nothing but selling the news.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

3\/ Germany Sees Bearish Development<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Germany\u2019s DAX Index<\/a> was one of the leading international indices as foreign markets looked like they were ready to take the baton from their U.S. counterparts for the first time in over a decade. It rallied almost 40% from its September \u201822 lows to test its all-time highs. At the risk of repeating myself, it was yet another case of a false breakout.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

More troubling is that we have now seen a bearish cross (a.k.a. \u201cDeath cross<\/a>\u201d) using its 8-week and 21-week exponential moving average<\/a>s. This has coincided with a breach of a prior support zone<\/a>. Bulls would like to see the index quickly regain these levels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

—<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Originally posted 26th September 2023<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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