{"id":196682,"date":"2023-09-25T11:30:00","date_gmt":"2023-09-25T15:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=196682"},"modified":"2023-09-25T11:44:25","modified_gmt":"2023-09-25T15:44:25","slug":"weekly-market-recap-september-25-2023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/weekly-market-recap-september-25-2023\/","title":{"rendered":"Weekly Market Recap: September 25, 2023"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-week-in-review\">The week in review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Housing starts: -11.3% m\/m<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Markit Mfg.\/Services PMI: 48.9\/50.2 (prelim.)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-week-ahead\">The week ahead<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>PCE<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Consumer spending<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>2Q23 GDP (final est.)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-thought-of-the-week\">Thought of the Week<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Last week, the FOMC left policy rates unchanged at the current range of 5.25-5.50%. In its post-meeting statement, the FOMC maintained its hawkish bias, noting the \u201csolid pace\u201d of economic growth and that \u201cinflation remains elevated.\u201d Additionally, the FOMC\u2019s dot plot showed that the committee currently expects to hike once more before the end of the year and only cut by 50bps in 2024. Putting all this together, for markets, Wednesday\u2019s FOMC meeting reiterated the \u201chigh for longer\u201d narrative for interest rates and highlighted the importance of active management in the equity market. As we show in this week\u2019s chart, higher interest rates typically correspond to an elevated level of equity return dispersion. Currently, S&amp;P 500 return dispersion, on a LTM basis, is sitting at levels not seen since early 2010. At the sector level, energy stocks have had a strong quarter due to the uptick in oil prices and an emphasis on prioritizing shareholder returns over the last ~18 months. In contrast, while the tech oriented sectors are still up year-to-date, performance has moderated on a quarter-to-date basis as the AI-driven rally has faded and higher interest rates weigh on valuations. Similarly, consumer discretionary has seen performance wane in 3Q, despite strong earnings results, as corporate guidance points toward a weakening outlook. Materials and industrials have struggled as well due to weakening manufacturing activity, while health care, utilities and real estate are currently all lagging the index due to elevated labor costs and higher rates. Looking ahead, we expect this divergence in performance within the S&amp;P 500 to persist due to above average inflation, elevated interest rates and an uncertain economic outlook. In such a scenario, investors should have a preference for low beta stocks with positive cash flows outside of capital-intensive industries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1009\" height=\"404\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/Screenshot-2023-09-25-103021.png\" alt=\"Average S&amp;P 500 index return dispersion by interest rate regime\" class=\"wp-image-196684 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/Screenshot-2023-09-25-103021.png 1009w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/Screenshot-2023-09-25-103021-700x280.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/Screenshot-2023-09-25-103021-300x120.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/Screenshot-2023-09-25-103021-768x308.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1009px) 100vw, 1009px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1009px; aspect-ratio: 1009\/404;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"497\" height=\"95\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/Screenshot-2023-09-25-103047.png\" alt=\"chart of the week and thought of the week sources\" class=\"wp-image-196685 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/Screenshot-2023-09-25-103047.png 497w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/Screenshot-2023-09-25-103047-300x57.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 497px) 100vw, 497px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 497px; aspect-ratio: 497\/95;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u2014<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Originally Posted September 25, 2023 \u2013&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/am.jpmorgan.com\/us\/en\/asset-management\/adv\/insights\/market-insights\/market-updates\/weekly-market-recap\/\">Weekly Market Recap<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Past performance does not guarantee future results.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Diversification does not guarantee investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of financial market trends, which are based on current market conditions. We believe the information provided here is reliable, but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The views and strategies described may not be appropriate for all investors. This material has been prepared for informational purposes only, and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice. References to future returns are not promises or even estimates of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Market Insights program provides comprehensive data and commentary on global markets without reference to products. Designed as a tool to help clients understand the markets and support investment decision-making, the program explores the implications of current economic data and changing market conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The J.P. Morgan Asset Management Market Insights and Portfolio Insights programs, as non-independent research, have not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, nor are they subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature<br>or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from J.P. Morgan Asset Management or any of its subsidiaries to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professional, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>J.P. Morgan Asset Management is the brand for the asset management business of JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. and its affiliates worldwide.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Telephone calls and electronic communications may be monitored and\/or recorded.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Personal data will be collected, stored and processed by J.P. Morgan Asset Management in accordance with our privacy policies at https:\/\/www.jpmorgan.com\/privacy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This communication is issued in the United States, by J.P. Morgan Investment Management Inc. or J.P. Morgan Alternative Asset Management, Inc., both regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If you are a person with a disability and need additional support in viewing the material, please call us at 1-800-343-1113 for assistance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Copyright 2023 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><sup>\u00a9<\/sup>JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., September 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Unless otherwise stated, all data is as of September 25, 2023 or as of most recently available<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>For markets, Wednesday\u2019s FOMC meeting reiterated the \u201chigh for longer\u201d narrative for interest rates and highlight the importance of active management in the equity market.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":186,"featured_media":196684,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[9362,1685,3598,2298,657],"contributors-categories":[13608],"class_list":{"0":"post-196682","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-macro","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-region","10":"category-securities","11":"category-text-articles","12":"category-traders-insight","13":"tag-economic-outlook","14":"tag-macro","15":"tag-market-outlook","16":"tag-market-recap","17":"tag-pce","18":"contributors-categories-j-p-morgan-asset-management"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.5) - 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