{"id":196624,"date":"2023-09-22T12:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-09-22T16:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=196624"},"modified":"2023-09-22T12:32:29","modified_gmt":"2023-09-22T16:32:29","slug":"how-indias-monsoon-season-affects-gold-prices","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/commodities\/how-indias-monsoon-season-affects-gold-prices\/","title":{"rendered":"How India\u2019s Monsoon Season Affects Gold Prices"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-at-a-glance\">AT A GLANCE<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>A good monsoon season can drive physical gold demand, especially in India\u2019s agricultural areas<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Gold demand globally has eased since the beginning of the year as central banks hiked interest rates with no sense of when they would finish<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>India\u2019s monsoon season got off to a slow start, but meteorologists there say the final weeks of the rainy season delivered plenty of needed moisture. That may be a welcome sign for the country\u2019s gold demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The connection between a weather event and gold purchases may not be immediately apparent, but about 60% of the country\u2019s gold demand comes from rural areas. India is also the second-largest gold-consuming country.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bountiful harvests mean Indian farmers can direct some extra income to invest in gold. In the past, India\u2019s gold purchases in the late third to fourth quarter have impacted global gold prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Monsoon season can influence buyers\u2019 decisions, with the weather event producing about 70% of India\u2019s needed annual rainfall for crops, reservoirs and aquifers. Other macroeconomic factors are also affecting gold demand, say market observers. High interest rates and strong gold prices in rupee terms may offset some of the traditional demand seen toward year\u2019s end.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"a-historical-form-of-savings\">A Historical Form of Savings<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>India\u2019s monsoon season typically runs from about June through September. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) confirmed the entire country was officially in a monsoon as of July 2.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mike Tannura, founder of T-Storm weather, says the monsoon started late, but was very wet across the Northwest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Joe Cavatoni, market strategist and head of Americas at the World Gold Council, says the organization\u2019s Indian-based team suggests the local sentiment considers July\u2019s rainfall was good for farmers. Rains receded across most of the country in August, only to bounce back in early September, according to the IMD.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Cavatoni says not only can a good monsoon season bring strong economic outcomes for rural areas; the end of monsoon season and harvest also heralds the beginning of the auspicious festival season. That leads to gold buying.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cEven though it is potentially jewelry purchases or foreign coin demand, (the purchases are) a form of savings, a long-standing, historical form of savings,\u201d says Cavatoni.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Sachin Patel, Executive Director, Metals products for CME Group in Singapore, agrees the monsoon and festival season are unique and specific factors impacting Indian gold demand. He also points to India\u2019s peak wedding season from October &#8211; December as another time when gold buying picks up.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThese big, auspicious events, whether they&#8217;re religious or cultural festivals, or weddings, tend to be a driver of immediate physical demand and are a fairly unique dynamic compared to what would drive gold demand in other countries,\u201d Patel says.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Patel says the prices paid for gold in India are usually seen in the local premium or discount for physical gold to International Gold prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Jewelry consumption is the biggest source of Indian gold demand, and in the first half of 2023, it was at 207 metric tons (MT), making up the bulk of the country\u2019s total demand at 275 MTs over the same period. Will Rhind, CEO of GraniteShares, which issues the GraniteShares Gold Trust (BAR) exchange-traded fund, explains that gold jewelry is not just considered fashionable, but is an investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cHistorically, a lot of Indian farmers buy gold or buy gold jewelry because they don&#8217;t have access to bank accounts,\u201d he says. \u201cThey use gold as a direct way to store wealth.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"high-gold-prices-pinching-consumers\">High Gold Prices Pinching Consumers<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Rhind suggests that factors beyond monsoons may have just as much of an impact on Indian demand. He says strong gold prices denominated in rupees have limited consumer purchases and a pickup in gold recycling to take advantage of those strong rupee-based gold prices has made Indian gold demand more muted than what gold-market watchers expected for 2023.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThe price of gold is hovering around all-time highs. And clearly when that happens, it just makes it tougher from a consumer perspective for people to keep buying at the same pace as before,\u201d Rhind says.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The World Gold Council\u2019s second quarter gold demand trends report shows Indian gold jewelry consumption fell by 8% during the quarter, stymied by record high gold prices. That cut first half total gold demand by 12% year-over-year. The organization suggested that given prices were at a record high, jewelry demand could have been weaker, but a strong economic backdrop with GDP estimated to grow 6.3% in 2023\/24 helped support demand, albeit at a lower level. It also noted \u201cunofficial\u201d gold flows surged in the second quarter, a trend often seen when prices are high.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Indian government\u2019s decision to ban 2,000-rupee notes during the second quarter may have also provided a short-term boost to gold demand, WGC\u2019s report says.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"gold-futures-contracts-see-higher-volumes\">Gold Futures Contracts See Higher Volumes<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Gold prices saw volatility earlier in the year because of worries over banks, such as the failure of Silicon Valley Bank, a U.S. regional bank catering to the technology sector, and the takeover of Credit Suisse by UBS, Patel says.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He notes volumes through August in the benchmark 100-ounce gold contract are up 4% versus a year ago, but the smaller gold products, such as the micro gold futures, which is one-tenth the size of the benchmark contract saw volumes increasing 32% through August. Likewise, the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/openmarkets\/metals\/2023\/Why-Gold-Options-are-Gaining-Momentum.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">standard gold options contract is up 13% through August.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"575\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/micro-gold-1100x575.jpg\" alt=\"Micro gold futures trading through August 2023\" class=\"wp-image-196628 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/micro-gold-1100x575.jpg 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/micro-gold-700x366.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/micro-gold-300x157.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/micro-gold-768x401.jpg 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/micro-gold.jpg 1200w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/575;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Gold futures prices have strengthened in 2023, remaining above $1,900 through early September after a surge earlier in the year.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"inflation-challenges-for-india\">Inflation Challenges for India<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The WGC demand trends report also acknowledges the importance of the monsoon. \u201cThe success \u2013 or otherwise \u2013 of the monsoon season will also have a considerable bearing on demand for the remainder of the year,\u201d the report states.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Rhind says Indian consumers may also be waiting to see if The Reserve Bank of India will cut interest rates. Much like the Federal Reserve and other western central banks, the RBI also raised interest rates to tame inflation. Inflation has tamped down on some Indian consumption as well, Cavatoni says.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"575\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/India-CPI_1200x627-1100x575.jpg\" alt=\"India Consumer Price Index\" class=\"wp-image-196627 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/India-CPI_1200x627-1100x575.jpg 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/India-CPI_1200x627-700x366.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/India-CPI_1200x627-300x157.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/India-CPI_1200x627-768x401.jpg 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/India-CPI_1200x627.jpg 1200w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/575;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Both Rhind and Cavatoni say factors to watch for Indian gold demand, aside from the monsoon\u2019s strength, include consumers\u2019 willingness to buy gold at current prices and also global monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Rhind says historically when gold hits new highs, consumers have to adjust to those prices. \u201cIt&#8217;s a question of how quickly they adjust to those prices in order to keep demand up there,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Cavatoni says once a clearer picture of U.S. monetary policy direction emerges, that could affect investors\u2019 interest in gold. Yellow metal demand eased as the Fed and other central banks hiked interest rates with no sense of when the central banks would finish.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThat could be moving the price, which might impact overall demand, or the appetite for consumption in India,\u201d Cavatoni says. \u201cSo you might have a ripe environment from a monsoon perspective, or maybe even an inflationary environment, but ultimately, that price might be something that puts a bit of a hindrance on consumption.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Originally Posted September 20, 2023 &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/openmarkets\/metals\/2023\/How-Indias-Monsoon-Season-Affects-Gold-Prices.html\">How India\u2019s Monsoon Season Affects Gold Prices<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>India\u2019s monsoon season got off to a slow start, but meteorologists there say the final weeks of the rainy season delivered plenty of needed moisture. That may be a welcome sign for the country\u2019s gold demand.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":288,"featured_media":196628,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4,21,8,9,26,3],"tags":[147,255,518,1191],"contributors-categories":[13577],"class_list":{"0":"post-196624","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-asia","8":"category-commodities","9":"category-region","10":"category-securities","11":"category-text-articles","12":"category-traders-insight","13":"tag-commodities","14":"tag-gold","15":"tag-india","16":"tag-metal","17":"contributors-categories-cme-group"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>How India\u2019s Monsoon Season Affects Gold Prices<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"India\u2019s monsoon season got off to a slow start, but meteorologists there say the final weeks of the rainy season delivered plenty of needed moisture....\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/196624\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"How India\u2019s Monsoon Season Affects Gold Prices | IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"India\u2019s monsoon season got off to a slow start, but meteorologists there say the final weeks of the rainy season delivered plenty of needed moisture. 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