{"id":196365,"date":"2023-09-18T11:15:00","date_gmt":"2023-09-18T15:15:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=196365"},"modified":"2023-09-25T10:32:06","modified_gmt":"2023-09-25T14:32:06","slug":"weekly-market-recap-september-18-2023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/weekly-market-recap-september-18-2023\/","title":{"rendered":"Weekly Market Recap: September 18, 2023"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-week-in-review\">The week in review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Headline\/core-CPI: 3.7%\/4.3% y\/y<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>PPI: 1.6% y\/y<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Initial claims edged higher to 220k<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-week-ahead\">The week ahead<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Housing starts and permits<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>FOMC meeting<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-thought-of-the-week\">Thought of the Week<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>According to Chairman Powell at Jackson Hole, the Fed &#8220;is navigating by the stars under cloudy skies.\u201d In the wake of this admission that the outlook is not terribly clear, investors turned their attention to the August CPI report, hoping for a better view of what might lie on the horizon. While the report revealed an acceleration in price growth, it was largely in line with expectations. Headline CPI climbed 0.6% m\/m and core CPI rose 0.3%, as some prior disinflationary forces reversed course. Looking ahead, the key question is how long will these factors provide an inflationary impulse?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The details of the report revealed that energy prices were a significant contributor to the August acceleration, accounting for over half of the increase in headline CPI. Specifically, gasoline prices surged by 10.6% m\/m, a consequence of production cuts by OPEC+ and increasing refinery margins. However, food prices edged up by a modest 0.2% m\/m, and excluding volatile food and energy, the 3-month annualized core CPI stands at 2.4% y\/y; this reflects the progress that has been made bringing inflation back to its target level. Looking ahead, an ongoing slowdown in Europe and expansion of refining capacity suggest further surges in gasoline prices are unlikely. Additionally, core services, helped by cooling rents and wages, should lead to further moderation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This week, we expect that the Fed will leave policy rates unchanged, with the futures market pricing in a less than 5% probability of a hike. Furthermore, the Fed\u2019s commitment to a data-driven approach is likely to be reiterated. However, investors should note that central bank policy is becoming increasingly dispersed, and this deviation from the synchronized rate hikes seen in 2022 could lead volatility to rise into the end of the year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1004\" height=\"405\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/Screenshot-2023-09-18-101333.png\" alt=\"Implied probability from fed funds futures for a 25bps hike\" class=\"wp-image-196366 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/Screenshot-2023-09-18-101333.png 1004w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/Screenshot-2023-09-18-101333-700x282.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/Screenshot-2023-09-18-101333-300x121.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/Screenshot-2023-09-18-101333-768x310.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1004px) 100vw, 1004px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1004px; aspect-ratio: 1004\/405;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"484\" height=\"71\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/Screenshot-2023-09-18-101355.png\" alt=\"chart of the week and thought of the week sources\" class=\"wp-image-196367 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/Screenshot-2023-09-18-101355.png 484w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/Screenshot-2023-09-18-101355-300x44.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 484px) 100vw, 484px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 484px; aspect-ratio: 484\/71;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u2014<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Originally Posted September 18, 2023 \u2013&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/am.jpmorgan.com\/us\/en\/asset-management\/adv\/insights\/market-insights\/market-updates\/weekly-market-recap\/\">Weekly Market Recap<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Past performance does not guarantee future results.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Diversification does not guarantee investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of financial market trends, which are based on current market conditions. We believe the information provided here is reliable, but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The views and strategies described may not be appropriate for all investors. This material has been prepared for informational purposes only, and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice. References to future returns are not promises or even estimates of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Market Insights program provides comprehensive data and commentary on global markets without reference to products. Designed as a tool to help clients understand the markets and support investment decision-making, the program explores the implications of current economic data and changing market conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The J.P. Morgan Asset Management Market Insights and Portfolio Insights programs, as non-independent research, have not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, nor are they subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature<br>or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from J.P. Morgan Asset Management or any of its subsidiaries to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professional, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>J.P. Morgan Asset Management is the brand for the asset management business of JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. and its affiliates worldwide.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Telephone calls and electronic communications may be monitored and\/or recorded.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Personal data will be collected, stored and processed by J.P. Morgan Asset Management in accordance with our privacy policies at https:\/\/www.jpmorgan.com\/privacy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This communication is issued in the United States, by J.P. Morgan Investment Management Inc. or J.P. Morgan Alternative Asset Management, Inc., both regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If you are a person with a disability and need additional support in viewing the material, please call us at 1-800-343-1113 for assistance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Copyright 2023 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><sup>\u00a9<\/sup>JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., September 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Unless otherwise stated, all data is as of September 18, 2023 or as of most recently available<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This week, we expect that the Fed will leave policy rates unchanged, with the futures market pricing in a less than 5% probability of a hike.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":186,"featured_media":196366,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[3221,314,2298,11020],"contributors-categories":[13608],"class_list":{"0":"post-196365","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-macro","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-region","10":"category-securities","11":"category-text-articles","12":"category-traders-insight","13":"tag-economic-data","14":"tag-fomc","15":"tag-market-recap","16":"tag-rate-hike","17":"contributors-categories-j-p-morgan-asset-management"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - 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